Community Chat

[QueenDanceALot]

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@gardenman wrote:

I've seen three people posting online that they missed their scheduled test (one worked late, the other two didn't go due to other issues) then all three got notified that they'd tested positive for Covid-19. Bear in mind they'd never gotten tested. Either there's some really sloppy record keeping going on, or something else, but we're seeing some things that make you go, "What?"

There are also some reports of unused swabs being sent in and coming back positive. Either labs are having contamination and record keeping issues, or someone is cooking the data, but none of those options are good. If they're confusing samples then some people who are testing positive are being told they're negative and could be out spreading the virus, while others who truly are negative are being stressed with false positive results.

 The great news is the death rate is dropping a lot. As long as that keeps dropping it's a good thing. That's the one number that's hard to manipulate. I'm not sure how much I trust any other number right now.

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@gardenman 

But you trust 3 anonymous people posting online and "reports of unused swabs coming back positive"?

[QueenDanceALot]

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@Firefly901 wrote:

I wonder what the numbers are today?  We know a lot about the behavior of the virus from the NY experience.  We could superimpose that pattern of virus behavior on surging states like Florida and Texas to better understand our situation and the possibilities.

After the NY shut down began, all major indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, cases) continued to rapidly go up for about two weeks, then it peaked.  Instead of immediately going down, it plateaued for about two or three weeks, afterward it began to go down very slowly for another two to three weeks until they finally got deaths under 100 persons per day. 

If we use this framework and superimpose it on Florida, if they shut down now, there would be about two weeks of continued surging numbers on all indicators, followed by about two weeks of the plateau, then a slow gradual decease in numbers for about another two to three weeks.  Under this pattern of virus behavior, it would take about a month and a half or two months of shut down time to get the virus under control in Florida.

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@Firefly901 

News reports this afternoon are saying that ICU beds in several counties in FL are almost full.  That doesn't sound like a positive trend.  Postive as in "good".

[germanshepherdlove]

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@Firefly901 wrote:

I wonder what the numbers are today?  We know a lot about the behavior of the virus from the NY experience.  We could superimpose that pattern of virus behavior on surging states like Florida and Texas to better understand our situation and the possibilities.

After the NY shut down began, all major indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, cases) continued to rapidly go up for about two weeks, then it peaked.  Instead of immediately going down, it plateaued for about two or three weeks, afterward it began to go down very slowly for another two to three weeks until they finally got deaths under 100 persons per day. 

If we use this framework and superimpose it on Florida, if they shut down now, there would be about two weeks of continued surging numbers on all indicators, followed by about two weeks of the plateau, then a slow gradual decease in numbers for about another two to three weeks.  Under this pattern of virus behavior, it would take about a month and a half or two months of shut down time to get the virus under control in Florida.

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@Firefly901 I don't think so for the simple reason that doctors are now more educated in how to care for covid patients and in all of its stages.  In addition, there are medications proven to work that halt the virus and allow patients to go home.....very different than the rampant use of ventilators early on.   Also, placing patients on their stomach brings their oxygen levels back to normal within hours.  Hospital staff knows now what the appropriate treatment is for each patient.  

[gardenman]

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@QueenDanceALot wrote:

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@gardenman wrote:

I've seen three people posting online that they missed their scheduled test (one worked late, the other two didn't go due to other issues) then all three got notified that they'd tested positive for Covid-19. Bear in mind they'd never gotten tested. Either there's some really sloppy record keeping going on, or something else, but we're seeing some things that make you go, "What?"

There are also some reports of unused swabs being sent in and coming back positive. Either labs are having contamination and record keeping issues, or someone is cooking the data, but none of those options are good. If they're confusing samples then some people who are testing positive are being told they're negative and could be out spreading the virus, while others who truly are negative are being stressed with false positive results.

 The great news is the death rate is dropping a lot. As long as that keeps dropping it's a good thing. That's the one number that's hard to manipulate. I'm not sure how much I trust any other number right now.

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@gardenman 

But you trust 3 anonymous people posting online and "reports of unused swabs coming back positive"?

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I don't trust anyone right now. The only numbers I trust are the death numbers. It's hard to hide deaths. Everything else is of questionable credibility. 

[Firefly901]

Thanks for sharing those improvements that impact the pattern.  The surge and the peak would still be there.  These improvements should impact hospitalizations, and deaths.  So maybe the plateau would be shorter, and maybe the decline would be faster.  As a general guess, to get control of the virus, how much do you think the "shut-down time" could be reduced by these improvements?  Two weeks?  Three weeks?  A month?  What?

[shoesnbags]

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@Blahblahvampemer wrote:

Who really knows because of the high false positives, the common cold creating false positives, and the test not telling you the current state of the infection.  Since 85% go zipping right through with few if any symptoms, bring on the herd immunity.

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@Blahblahvampemer 

This refers to the antibody test - which shows if you have had the virus - not the test to check if you are currently infected.  A cold will not make you test positive for current COVID-19 infection. 

[germanshepherdlove]

@Firefly901 I don't know.  One of the most horrifying cases of covid I have read about is Nick Cordero who has been in ICU for 91 days in Ca.  He no longer tests posititive for covid but lost 65 lbs (5'11") and had to have his leg amputated due to blood clots and all of his muscles have atropied.  He can't cough to clear his own lungs or sqeeze his wife's hand when she squeezes his.  Nick Cordero a brilliant actor, singer and dancer struck down in the prime of his life.  I don't know how a person can get enough calories to regain their strength when they can't swallow.  It saddens me so much.  He got sick at the end of March after just moving from NY to CA.  I can't help but wonder if his chances would have been better in NY due to the vast amount of experience they had obtained during that particular timeframe.  

eta: i meant atrophied...

[KKJ]

@germanshepherdlove yes, so sad about Nick Cordero. I've followed his wife Amanda's updates about his condition. Am so impressed with how strong she's been throughout all this. She said if and when Nick is strong enough, he will need a double lung transplant since his lungs are so damaged.

[suzyQ3]

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@KKJ wrote:

@germanshepherdlove yes, so sad about Nick Cordero. I've followed his wife Amanda's updates about his condition. Am so impressed with how strong she's been throughout all this. She said if and when Nick is strong enough, he will need a double lung transplant since his lungs are so damaged.

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@KKJ, I read about that likely procedure as well. I think it's amazing that he has survived. Perhaps his age is a factor.

[reiki604]

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@pigletsmom wrote:

For anyone praising NY on their handling of this mess you should now that this thing is in no way over in this state. While we have press conferences acting like something great has been accomplished, the people behind the scenes doing the work 12+ hours a day are already seeing numbers they don't like. And they assume we'll be in an upswing in August. 

The one thing they think will help for now is that less people could be on public transit because of nice weather. They're hoping that this way we actually flatten the curve as opposed to before but they for sure aren't banking on that.The thinking is that we could go up in August and then stay at those levels for a while and then spike way up in the fall.

Keep yourselves safe people!

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Not quite sure what you're trying to say. At the height of the NY infections you complained about NY's reaction and how it wasn't that bad and we didn't need all those restrictions. Now that we have flattened the curve due to those restrictions, you are complaining that things are opening up. Will cases go up due to the loosening of restrictions. Probably because there is no cure or vaccine. It is trial and error to see how far we can open up safely. Nothing is guaranteed.

It just seems you want to criticize NY's response no matter what it does. IMHO