Explanation of James' Final Jeopardy Betting Strategy

judy0330 · ‎01-03-2011

I thought that James might have purposely lost until my husband (Mr. Math) explained the strategy to me. (Too funny -- I read online last night that James was going to lose and didn't tell my husband so that he could enjoy the show; he found out today and didn't tell me for the same reason!) I just found an explanation of the strategy online:

Some critics have laughed at Holzhauer’s seemingly paltry Final Jeopardy wager Monday night: $1,399. But it was the right move from a betting perspective. Holzhauer went into Final Jeopardy with $23,400 to Boettcher’s $26,600. He had one option if he wanted to give himself the best chance of winning: Take the low, which is gambling parlance for essentially betting that your opponent will lose.

Since Boettcher had more money than him, he couldn’t count on beating her if they both answered the question correctly — because double her total would still trump double his. Assuming that she would bet enough to beat him even he doubled his own winnings — which is, in fact, what she bet — Holzhauer put up a sum that would enable him to win even if they were both wrong. Had that come to pass, Boettcher, with her bet of $20,201, would have wound up with $6,399; Holzhauer, meanwhile, with his wager of $1,399, would have had a winning $22,001. (He’d also calculated what he needed to bet in order to cover — by $1 — the third-place contestant, Jay Sexton, who had $11,000 going into Final Jeopardy and could have had as much as $22,000 if he’d wagered it all.)

“Sometimes taking the low is your only good option,” professional gambler Joanna Wlodawer tells The Post. “He evaluated all of his options and made the right play” – even though they both answered correctly and he lost the game.

LdyBugz · ‎03-10-2010

@judy0330 That strategy makes sense. But, I watched the show and it seems that there were a lot of answers that he should have known, especially since lil' ol' me could answer them correctly!

mom2four0418 · ‎04-23-2010

@judy0330 wrote:

I thought that James might have purposely lost until my husband (Mr. Math) explained the strategy to me. (Too funny -- I read online last night that James was going to lose and didn't tell my husband so that he could enjoy the show; he found out today and didn't tell me for the same reason!) I just found an explanation of the strategy online:

Some critics have laughed at Holzhauer’s seemingly paltry Final Jeopardy wager Monday night: $1,399. But it was the right move from a betting perspective. Holzhauer went into Final Jeopardy with $23,400 to Boettcher’s $26,600. He had one option if he wanted to give himself the best chance of winning: Take the low, which is gambling parlance for essentially betting that your opponent will lose.

Since Boettcher had more money than him, he couldn’t count on beating her if they both answered the question correctly — because double her total would still trump double his. Assuming that she would bet enough to beat him even he doubled his own winnings — which is, in fact, what she bet — Holzhauer put up a sum that would enable him to win even if they were both wrong. Had that come to pass, Boettcher, with her bet of $20,201, would have wound up with $6,399; Holzhauer, meanwhile, with his wager of $1,399, would have had a winning $22,001. (He’d also calculated what he needed to bet in order to cover — by $1 — the third-place contestant, Jay Sexton, who had $11,000 going into Final Jeopardy and could have had as much as $22,000 if he’d wagered it all.)

“Sometimes taking the low is your only good option,” professional gambler Joanna Wlodawer tells The Post. “He evaluated all of his options and made the right play” – even though they both answered correctly and he lost the game.

That's one theory for sure. He has yet to comment on his strategy but has congratulated the new winner on social media. Such a class act!

“The soul is healed by being with children.”
— Fyodor Dostoyevsky

judy0330 · ‎01-03-2011

@LdyBugz I know what you are saying -- but I felt that way throughout his whole run. There were a lot of what I thought were easy questions and he didn't buzz in. I kept saying to my husband "How can he not know THAT?????!!!!!" Like you -- if I knew the correct response -- I couldn't imagine that HE did not!!!

Trinity11 · ‎11-16-2014

I hope there is a lot more information about this contestant over the coming months. I would be interested to learn what his reason was for purposely losing... Stay tuned...

DREAMON · ‎03-09-2010

Something was very off tonight. I think he knew he was going to lose from the beginning.

luvmybeetle · ‎08-10-2013

I understand all of this but I am so depressed. I really liked him and enjoyed all his fast choices and answers. He didn't fool around with small talk like "I'll take ---- for $100 Alex. He just called out the short version of the category and the number and it went fast. I will really miss him. He is genuinely a nice guy.

LdyBugz · ‎03-10-2010

@judy0330 That makes me feel better that you saw the same thing. I wondered if it was just my imagination!

luvmybeetle · ‎08-10-2013

I noticed that he was a little stand-offish today, sort of like he may not be feeling well. Maybe he decided to get off and let someone else take it. He did pass up some very easy answers.

haddon9 · ‎03-09-2010

@LdyBugz wrote:
@judy0330 That strategy makes sense. But, I watched the show and it seems that there were a lot of answers that he should have known, especially since lil' ol' me could answer them correctly!

I felt the same way...while I understand the betting strategy, it seems that he just didn't go for a lot of very easy questions...he let them slip through..why?