Community Chat

[suzyQ3]

I guess I haven't dwelled on the rate of deaths as much as on how many we have lost and the dwindling resources such as hospital beds and equipment, testing, protective gear, etc. etc. in so many of the hot spots -- unbelievable in our sixth month of semi-dealing with this crafty disease.

I'm not at all confident that either my husband or myself would have an easy time if we contracted Covid. And that's my rosier outlook.

[Tinkrbl44]

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@esmerelda wrote:

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@ellaphant wrote:

Turn on CNN. On the right of the screen they have a world cases and death rate and a U.S. cases and death rate that runs 24/7. Current U.S. death rate is 134, 580.

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@ellaphant  Again...that's the number of deaths, not the rate. The rate will be a percent. 

I don't have CNN.  If I did, I would check the number of deaths at the same time each day to get a clear picture of how things are going. 

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@esmerelda 

CNN has that information on their website.  You don't need a TV to check that.

[Bhvbum]

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@SharkE wrote:

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@ellaphant wrote:

Turn on CNN. On the right of the screen they have a world cases and death rate and a U.S. cases and death rate that runs 24/7. Current U.S. death rate is 134, 580.

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Fox runs it too. 

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Interesting, we are 4% of the world's population and 24% of the covid19 deaths.  And we are supposed to be the richest country in the world.

[Puppy Lips]

There is a difference between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus. My nurse friend said that people who likely were doing to die anyway, due to other issues, who tested positive, are counted as dying from the virus. So I think the numbers are skewed.

[suzyQ3]

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@suzyQ3 wrote:

I guess I haven't dwelled on the rate of deaths as much as on how many we have lost and the dwindling resources such as hospital beds and equipment, testing, protective gear, etc. etc. in so many of the hot spots -- unbelievable in our sixth month of semi-dealing with this crafty disease.

I'm not at all confident that either my husband or myself would have an easy time if we contracted Covid. And that's my rosier outlook.

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FYI: The United States on Friday reached 60,000 new cases for the first time, and the number ultimately soared to more than 68,000 — setting a single-day record for the seventh time in 11 days. Total number of cases to date is 3.29 million.

[pitdakota]

Death rates per se are only calculated for deaths related to chronic disease, not communicable diseases.  For communicable disease they use a case fatality ratio which gives a percentage that reflects of the number of identified cases how many of those people died.   Although you will see media reporting death rate and various doctors calling it a death rate because that is what the public understands, but when looking at actual data reported clinically it appears as a percentage

So to calculate the case fatality ratio one would take the number of deaths due to that communicable disease in a defined geographical region and divide it by the number of identified cases.  That yields a percentage which is called the case fatality ratio.

For those quibbling with data....there is no perfect system anywhere on earth.  We calculate death rates due to heart disease in every county in this country.  But even those numbers aren't pristine.  Fatality rates are reported per 100,000 people of a defined population.  If people don't fill out their census or fill out other sources of information used by this country to determine population of a certain area, the population number is off.  Everyone that deals with public health data knows this.  But it doesn't make a difference, because one looks for trends over different periods of time to make conclusions.  The most important thing is consistency in calculating the data.

Even when they have large outbreaks of ebola in various countries in Africa, they don't have an accurate percentage for case fatality rate.  Some die in a village without ever seeking healthcare and aren't counted in the identified case group, nor the fatality group.  But public health officials, NGOs, and other medical groups still use the case fatality ratio to determine areas of priority to send medical teams, resources, supplies, etc.  They also use the case fatality ratio for that area to determine the progress they are making in stemming the outbreak.    

The same happens with influenza, bubonic plaque, measles, pertussis, etc.  Not all cases are identified, not all deaths are identified either.  

No system on earth can track every single case of any type of communicable disease and every death caused by that communicable disease.  

The case fatality rate for this country will vary from day to day.  Epidemiologists look for trends and changes up or down.  The case fatality ratio will be higher today because of the increased number of deaths reported over the past week than the case fatality ratio for the week previous.   Right now the only value of the case fatality ratio is to gauge how the percentage is moving, either up or down. They will determine a final annual case fatality rate at the end of the calendar year.

A better determination for most is to look at case fatality ratio in their specific geographical area.  If numbers are reported for your county, you can calculate the percentage.  If county information isn't reported you can get numbers for each state.

And by the way, there is very good evidence that the number of deaths due to covid-19 aren't accurate either.  The city of Houston has seen a marked increase in at home deaths over the past 4 weeks.  Many of those deaths may be due to covid.  But they won't be counted unless the medical  examiner tests the body and has evidence of a disease process prior to death that is consistent with covid-19.  And most medical examiners are too busy to do that on any consistent basis.

I saw an interview with a doctor in San Antonio that had to make a decision on which 3 covid-19 patients he could take to put on ECMO out of 10 calls he recevied.  ECMO is really a last effort to try and save someone on a ventilator with covid-19.  That means up to 7 people may have died because the patients did not have access to an ICU with the equipment to perform ECMO.  Hard to say what happened to them. The doctor did say all 10 patients were young.  

These are the decisions that health care providers are having to make when the ICUs get full and resources are limited.  In that situation, the case fatality ratio will increase for the county because they just don't have to medical resources to treat the patients.  

And for those that are interested in the information about San Antonio you can google "Texas doctor forced to choose which covid-19 patients get beds.....".  

I can't even begin to imagine the decision making process of how you decide which 3 young people will get the bed for ECMO and know that you have most probably destined the other 7 young people to die.  That is a horrible position to be in for anyone!

Obviously the case fatality ratio will be higher for the county in which San Antonio resides than another county in Texas that has  adequate ICU beds, ventilators, and ECMO equipment available.  

[Tinkrbl44]

@gardenman 

Good points, but other factors are muddying the waters and it may be a looong time before they have all this sorted out.  I think Covid may be a catalyst to cause a death, but there could be many other contributing factors.  

Example ....   What if a person is getting chemo for end stage cancer, and gets the virus and dies.  Statistically, do they attribute that death to the cancer or the virus?

Could there be other factors that tip the scales .... hereditary, blood types, immunity factors, DNA irregularities, etc.   

Why does a 50 year old get the virus and survive and a 10 year old gets it, and dies?   Did it have something to do with the patient ... or the health care protocols not implemented quickly enough?

You get the idea.     

[Bhvbum]

@esmerelda wrote:

What is the death rate from this virus?  And why isn't it being reported in a manner so that I don't have to ask?  Why can't I find it at CDC or NIH?

I can find the number of cases...the focus now since the number of deaths (which is also easy to find) continues to decrease. But the RATE of death from the virus in this country is elusive. 

I'd like to know...what is it and where can I see it?

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There is a big reason everyone wants the number of cases, for each state or for the country, it is the leading indicator of what is to come, for PPE, testing, hospitilizations and deaths.  Lots of people take that critical number and trend, to forecast.  

Here is a interesting number for you:

The US has only 4% of the world's population but to date has 24% of the Covid19 deaths.  For the wealthiest, diverse, educated,  country, etc. that is a significant number.  

[Tinkrbl44]

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@Bhvbum wrote:

@esmerelda wrote:

What is the death rate from this virus?  And why isn't it being reported in a manner so that I don't have to ask?  Why can't I find it at CDC or NIH?

I can find the number of cases...the focus now since the number of deaths (which is also easy to find) continues to decrease. But the RATE of death from the virus in this country is elusive. 

I'd like to know...what is it and where can I see it?

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There is a big reason everyone wants the number of cases, for each state or for the country, it is the leading indicator of what is to come, for PPE, testing, hospitilizations and deaths.  Lots of people take that critical number and trend, to forecast.  

Here is a interesting number for you:

The US has only 4% of the world's population but to date has 24% of the Covid19 deaths.  For the wealthiest, diverse, educated,  country, etc. that is a significant number.  

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@Bhvbum 

Significant, but there's also a number of people who think this is a "fake" problem and they don't need to wear masks.  And there's the people who ignore science.  And don't forget the people think their 'rights are being violated".   You can't do much with those idiots, so our rates are bound to be higher.  

[suzyQ3]

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@Puppy Lips wrote:
There is a difference between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus. My nurse friend said that people who likely were doing to die anyway, due to other issues, who tested positive, are counted as dying from the virus. So I think the numbers are skewed.

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@Puppy Lips, likely to die? If they were positive for the virus and died from complications, shouldn't that be counted as a Covid death, as opposed to their testing positive but falling off a ladder and dying?

Maybe @pitdakota can weigh in for us. :-)