Community Chat

[Mindy D]

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@esmerelda wrote:

What is the death rate from this virus?  And why isn't it being reported in a manner so that I don't have to ask?  Why can't I find it at CDC or NIH?

I can find the number of cases...the focus now since the number of deaths (which is also easy to find) continues to decrease. But the RATE of death from the virus in this country is elusive. 

I'd like to know...what is it and where can I see it?

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@esmerelda look at the chart below

From a Johns Hopkins. 

MAPS & TRENDS Mortality Analyses

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How does mortality differ across countries?

One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

• Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
• Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
• Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
• Other factors, many of which remain unknown.

This page was last updated on Saturday, July 11, 2020 at 03:00 AM EDT.

Mortality in the most affected countries

For the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide, the bars in the chart below show the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio) or per 100,000 population (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people). Countries at the top of this figure have the most deaths proportionally to their COVID-19 cases or population, not necessarily the most deaths overall.

Worldwide mortality

The diagonal lines on the chart below correspond to different case fatality ratios (the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases). Countries falling on the uppermost lines have the highest observed case fatality ratios. Points with a black border correspond to the 20 most affected countries by COVID-19 worldwide, based on the number of deaths. Hover over the circles to see the country name and a ratio value. Use the boxes on the top to toggle between: 1) mortality per absolute number of cases (total confirmed cases within a country); and mortality per 100,000 people (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people).

Cases and mortality by country

COUNTRY

CONFIRMED

DEATHS

CASE-FATALITY

DEATHS/100K POP.

San Marino	699	42	6.0%	124.32
Belgium	62,357	9,781	15.7%	85.63
Andorra	855	52	6.1%	67.53
United Kingdom	289,678	44,735	15.4%	67.28
Spain	253,908	28,403	11.2%	60.79
Italy	242,639	34,938	14.4%	57.81
Sweden	74,898	5,526	7.4%	54.27
France	208,015	30,007	14.4%	44.80
US	3,184,573	134,092	4.2%	40.99
Chile	309,274	6,781	2.2%

[esmerelda]

@Mindy D  Death rate in the US is 4.2%...am I reading that right?

[CrazyDaisy]

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@esmerelda wrote:

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@CrazyDaisy wrote:

Because unless you know how many cases you actually have, and number used as a "death rate" calculation is distorted.  The number of cases reported is so much lower than the actual cases in the population.  However that has not stopped some from making that claim with distorted numbers.  Then people wonder why others question other things being reported.

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@CrazyDaisy  You need to know the number of cases with an outcome...did the person live (recovery rate) or die (death rate)...not the total number of cases. 

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No you need to know actual cases.   Early on, and even now, those with mild or no symptoms are not being included in the number of recovered.  These cases have an outcome and need to be included.

[SunSprite]

@Mindy D  Thank you. 

So these figures are strictly including lab tested confirmed cases and not the "presumed" positive cases? 

[Mindy D]

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@SunSprite wrote:

@Mindy D  Thank you. 

So these figures are strictly including lab tested confirmed cases and not the "presumed" positive cases? 

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@SunSprite Hopkins explains how they get their data somewhere on the site. I don't remember their system. 

[CrazyDaisy]

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@SunSprite wrote:

@Mindy D  Thank you. 

So these figures are strictly including lab tested confirmed cases and not the "presumed" positive cases? 

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Actually the numbers are based on deaths to population, has nothing to do with the number of cases presumed or actual.

[gardenman]

The death rate number you see right now is a worst-case number. It's safe to presume there are more people who have/had Covid-19 than is reported and as that number goes up, the death rate goes down. For example if you have ten deaths from a hundred known cases, the death rate is 10%. If you have the same ten deaths from a thousand known cases the death rate drops to 1%. We know a maximum number of people who have died from Covid-19 to date. We know a minimum number of confirmed cases. Unless someone finds a hidden pile of dead bodies and we've counted every single person with the virus, the currently  reported death rate is higher than the real world number.

[Bhvbum]

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@esmerelda wrote:

What is the death rate from this virus?  And why isn't it being reported in a manner so that I don't have to ask?  Why can't I find it at CDC or NIH?

I can find the number of cases...the focus now since the number of deaths (which is also easy to find) continues to decrease. But the RATE of death from the virus in this country is elusive. 

I'd like to know...what is it and where can I see it?

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I think one big reason that the number of cases is being reported because this gives the medical community a leading forecast of how that number is increasing, because there is a certainty that a certain percent will need to be hospitalized, and then further down so many are going to die.  That's why everybody gets alarmed when the number of cases appears to be skyrocketing in certain states because it is the advance warning of what is to come.

In a major flood, you want to know how fast the water is rising to prepare versus how many houses are getting "totaled."

[SoX]

I don't want to derail your thread @esmerelda , but you'll not get this information from the two agencies you cited.   Both agencies are supposed to be autonomous, but actually have been getting their marching orders elsewhere.   Even persons with no knowledge of how such data is compiled are preventing such information from becoming accessible.

[SharkE]

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@ellaphant wrote:

Turn on CNN. On the right of the screen they have a world cases and death rate and a U.S. cases and death rate that runs 24/7. Current U.S. death rate is 134, 580.

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Fox runs it too.