Community Chat

[SeaMaiden]

FROM:

Statnews.com

A modeling study on the new coronavirus warns that intermittent periods of social distancing may need to persist into 2022 in the United States to keep the surge of people severely sickened by Covid-19 from overwhelming the health care system.

The research, published Tuesday in the journal Science, looked at a range of scenarios for how the SARS-CoV-2 virus will spread over the next five years. Those scenarios included variables like whether people who are infected develop short-term immunity — less than a year — or longer-term protection.

But, overall, the research concludes it is unlikely that life will return any time soon to the way it was before the virus’ emergence.

The researchers, from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, acknowledge the economic fallout from the response to the virus has been profound.

“Our goal in modeling such policies is not to endorse them but to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches,” they wrote. “We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and-or not sustained for long enough.”

The authors suggest a number of factors will play a major role in how the disease’s trajectory plays out over the coming years — if transmission subsides in summer and resurges in winter, if there is some immunity induced by infection and how long it lasts, and whether people get any cross-protective immunity from having been infected with related human coronaviruses that cause common colds.

About the Author

Helen Branswell

Senior Writer, Infectious Disease

Helen covers issues broadly related to infectious diseases, including outbreaks, preparedness, research, and vaccine development.

[Porcelain]

LOL. No.

Even though this is probably so, it is too early to talk about this widely. Let us roll into it slowly. People can only handle so much at a time. For businesses and governments, sure please discuss. But let's leave us regular folks in a bit of ignorance for a few more weeks please while we acclimate to what is already going on.

[Vivian]

The Spanish flu pandemic started in 1918. It wasn't eradicated until 1921. I trust that the scientists will give us their best estimations of what behaviors need to be engaged in and until how long. They may be wrong but one thing I do know is that our behavior does have an effect upon this bug.

[Jordan2]

I think I rather not live then to live somewhat like this for two more years.

[Porcelain]

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@Jordan2 wrote:

I think I rather not live then to live somewhat like this for two more years.

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I hear you. However, the human spirit is much stronger than that.

One thing we can always take to the bank: in two years things will be different. We just don't know how or what.

[Nataliesgramma]

No way...I'll take my chances

That wouldn't be a life I would want

[deepwaterdotter]

As an immuno-suppressed individual, I will do whatever I can to remain alive.  My family and friends have discussed social distancing years into the future.  We agree that putting ourselves in potentially deadly physical contact is not worth the risk.  We will stay in contact through other means.

[millieshops]

A rose is a rose is a rose.   Whatever we call it, social distancing is not really a totally new concept -  but the extreme need for it now does make it seem new.

One of the activities I've been doing while I've been staying home more is sorting through the mounds of paper that's been boring me for way too long, and just a few hours ago, I turned over a clipping from maybe even 10 years ago.  On the side I originally wanted was a list of all the records I should have in order for my family when I'm no longer able to care for myself or when I'm just no longer here at all.

But, on the flip side of a list was how to cope better if that year's flu epidemic.   Guess what?  First, avoid contact with anyone presenting with symptoms.  Second, stay home if you yourself feel at all ill.  Cover your mouth and nose.  Sanitize your bath, bedrooms, and especially your kitchen.  And finally, wash your hands frequently.  Really not all that different from now except in degree.

I know I will resume some of my pre-virus habits, but it will be longer than a month or two or three or maybe more.  Further, it's unlikely i'll be taking many suggestions from the politicians in my state.  They have done zilch to make me feel safe so far.

Wish I'd dated that page!

[ValuSkr]

That sounds about right.  By 2022, supplies of face masks and wipes will have improved.

[mamaslittlepotato]

This woman hasn’t said anything that common sense and overthinking could tell us about what MAY happen. It’s not written in stone, it’s possibilities. Too much doom and gloom. Let’s try to take this one day at a time, otherwise we will worry every day of our lives, 24/7.