Community Chat

[Porcelain]

---

@germanshepherdlove wrote:

---

@Porcelain wrote:

---

@germanshepherdlove wrote:

@pitdakota we are where we are today because of the country of China who did not shut down international travel from their disease infected country early on when they were fully aware of the problem as they had shut down their domestic travel.  

We have had inconsistent information from the WHO and the CDC all of which the people in charge of the country get their information from regardless of who is in charge. 

We were not prepared for a pandemic though the people at the top were warned about it for many years yet the blame game continues on a beleaguered and beat up administration.  

---

That all may be so. We can have a Truth and Reconcilliation commission about it next year.

But we are still in the middle of this thing right now. And right now I am tired of the anger and chaos and being thrown to the wolves. Stop the bleeding first.

---

It is absolutely "so" and it affects everything NOW because some want to continue politicizing this disease.  The scientists who say they are close to a vaccine are shot down by those who say they will never take it, no way that it will work as it's too soon, as if THEY know anything behind the scenes. @Porcelain 

---

I get my flu shot. I'll take a vaccine when it is proven safe. Other countries are working on it too, so we won't have to take the word of some weird, corrupt, crony business with no track record that their vaccine is safe. We can chose to use one from a reputable business. There will likely be fake, dangerous vaccines that will be promoted by corrupt and greedy people. Which is why I will consider the source and their track record before getting on board with any particular treatment. 

That's all a while in the future. Testing and mass manufacture will take time. We have to hang on right now until the vaccine becomes available. Anti-vaxx rhetoric is toxic for sure. But we can bypass those people if we implement safety protocols along with the vaccine once there is one. There may eventually be genuine (not fake hyped ones) prophylactic treatments in the future to reduce severity and increase immunity as well.

The present is extremely dark and we have to fight to survive it, but the future is much brighter and we need to keep an eye on it as a reason to struggle through all this suffering right now. We will get to the other side if we stick together and keep helping each other.

[suzyQ3]

---

@germanshepherdlove wrote:

@suzyQ3 people need the ability to hold China acountable for the deaths of their loved ones and hopefully that will happen one day. 

Don't skew the numbers or the facts because you hate the current admin. The other side are bunglers and always have been in whatever they do or touch.  

---

I'm done responding to you, @germanshepherdlove. For one thing, you aren't really "listening" or actually responding to my points. For another thing, you are, perhaps purposely, baiting for a more political response. I will not give you that. So we're done here.

[Porcelain]

---

@germanshepherdlove wrote:

@suzyQ3 people need the ability to hold China acountable for the deaths of their loved ones and hopefully that will happen one day. 

Don't skew the numbers or the facts because you hate the current admin. The other side are bunglers and always have been in whatever they do or touch.  

---

The shoe is on the other foot at the moment. RIght now Americans can't travel internationally because in our own country we are knowingly causing each other's deaths and spreading this virus among our own people, unchecked. With no end in sight. We may be able to ding China on their response in the beginning, but other countries can ding us for what we are doing right now. We will be in trouble as well.

[Drythe]

@pitdakota 

Thank you as always for your Logical, Factual, Timely, Update, and discussion of this disease, it’s symptoms, and outcomes.  You are a real treasure.

Sadly, I think our current, Pandemic Debacle is largely due to the lack of a unified strategy which could unite us to pull together in overcoming this threat.  Sincierly, I hope we reach that point very soon.

~ Be Well - Be Safe ~

[pitdakota]

---

@germanshepherdlove wrote:

@pitdakota we are where we are today because of the country of China who did not shut down international travel from their disease infected country early on when they were fully aware of the problem as they had shut down their domestic travel.  

We have had inconsistent information from the WHO and the CDC all of which the people in charge of the country get their information from regardless of who is in charge. 

We were not prepared for a pandemic though the people at the top were warned about it for many years yet the blame game continues on a beleaguered and beat up administration.  

---

_______________________________________________________

Where we are today is our responsibility.  Pubic health experts have been sounding the alarm for more than 2 decades. Every single public health official in this country knew the risk.  Their message was clear.  It is not a question of if, it is a question of when. We used to have a very active pandemic response team poised in other countries, but certainly in China. Sadly, our pandemic response team was no longer there. 

At any rate, blaming China is just making them a scapegoat that serves no purpose for us to evaluate our response and make necessary changes.

It also doesn't explain a country such as Taiwan which is less than 100 miles away from mainland China and has a population that widely travels back and forth between the 2 countries demonstrates how to do this correctly.  To date they have had less than 500 positive cases and less than 10 deaths.  They didn't take time to blame anyone, they simply acted and employed the efforts of their public health initiative in their country.   They knew what to do and they did it. 

There are other countries out there that did a really good job as well.  But in my book, Taiwan gets the prize.  

One of the highlights of my career was sitting in on a federal post action analysis of our response to 9-11.  How refreshing it was to sit in virtual meetings  with experts and members from the administration at the time that openly and honestly evaluated the response and was willing to look at what went wrong and how to fix it the next time. 

My university is a bio hazard level 3 facility and subsequently was activated that day by the declaration of the federal emergency.  Sadly, we did not have to act because there were no survivors.  But that didn't preclude us from being included in the analysis and planning for making changes for improvement.  

That is how you do it.  You have to openly and honestly look at what worked well, what was just ok, and what didn't work.  That analysis then feeds into making changes to move forward.  

Think about this....there are multiple communist countries out there.  Theoretically an emerging virus resulting in a pandemic could originate from that country.  Do Americans really think that Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, other countries in the Middle East would alert the world?    There are other under developed countries in which an emerging virus might originate that presents challenges with a sub par health care system. An infectious disease could be out of control before they even realize what is going on through no fault of their own.  It serves no purpose to expect other countries to give advance warning to anyone.  While it might be nice, the US cannot and should not rely on that.  

And by the way, this is the lesson that Taiwan learned.  They were burned by China back during the SARS epidemic.  Instead of acting like spoiled children  blaming China they learned their lesson.  Largely due to that experience, they invested wisely in a strong public health sector for the country, put well developed epidemic response plans on the record, put in plan a 3 tier level of a national stockpile of PPE for an epidemic, etc. 

 By the way, with SARS epidemic they had a critical shortage of PPE.  So they developed a really great stockpile program that also rotates items out to local facilites before the stuff expires as they order fresh supplies for the stock pile. 

That is how you do it.  This is our lesson to learn.  Or not.  

[germanshepherdlove]

@pitdakota Like it or not it is China's fault and yes we were unprepared after many years of being told it was coming! 

[Drythe]

---

@pitdakota wrote:

Where we are today is our responsibility.  Pubic health experts have been sounding the alarm for more than 2 decades. Every single public health official in this country knew the risk.  Their message was clear.  It is not a question of if, it is a question of when. We used to have a very active pandemic response team poised in other countries, but certainly in China. Sadly, our pandemic response team was no longer there. 

At any rate, blaming China is just making them a scapegoat that serves no purpose for us to evaluate our response and make necessary changes.

It also doesn't explain a country such as Taiwan which is less than 100 miles away from mainland China and has a population that widely travels back and forth between the 2 countries demonstrates how to do this correctly.  To date they have had less than 500 positive cases and less than 10 deaths.  They didn't take time to blame anyone, they simply acted and employed the efforts of their public health initiative in their country.   They knew what to do and they did it. 

There are other countries out there that did a really good job as well.  But in my book, Taiwan gets the prize.  

One of the highlights of my career was sitting in on a federal post action analysis of our response to 9-11.  How refreshing it was to sit in virtual meetings  with experts and members from the administration at the time that openly and honestly evaluated the response and was willing to look at what went wrong and how to fix it the next time. 

My university is a bio hazard level 3 facility and subsequently was activated that day by the declaration of the federal emergency.  Sadly, we did not have to act because there were no survivors.  But that didn't preclude us from being included in the analysis and planning for making changes for improvement.  

That is how you do it.  You have to openly and honestly look at what worked well, what was just ok, and what didn't work.  That analysis then feeds into making changes to move forward.  

Think about this....there are multiple communist countries out there.  Theoretically an emerging virus resulting in a pandemic could originate from that country.  Do Americans really think that Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, other countries in the Middle East would alert the world?    There are other under developed countries in which an emerging virus might originate that presents challenges with a sub par health care system. An infectious disease could be out of control before they even realize what is going on through no fault of their own.  It serves no purpose to expect other countries to give advance warning to anyone.  While it might be nice, the US cannot and should not rely on that.  

And by the way, this is the lesson that Taiwan learned.  They were burned by China back during the SARS epidemic.  Instead of acting like spoiled children  blaming China they learned their lesson.  Largely due to that experience, they invested wisely in a strong public health sector for the country, put well developed epidemic response plans on the record, put in plan a 3 tier level of a national stockpile of PPE for an epidemic, etc. 

 By the way, with SARS epidemic they had a critical shortage of PPE.  So they developed a really great stockpile program that also rotates items out to local facilites before the stuff expires as they order fresh supplies for the stock pile. 

That is how you do it.  This is our lesson to learn.  Or not.  

---

@pitdakota 

Let's hear it for Public Health!

As you so aptly point out, the time to to a 'hot wash','debrief', 'post response review' of what was done well, and what needs improvement, and follow-up is after our response.

The time to take any strictures regarding what is learned should be as part of a Plan.  A plan that will allow us to Beat COVID19 down to a manageable level and Keep it that way - nationwide. Dealing one hot -spot at a time means we just keep passing it among ourselves, especially as we now know it can re-occur.

But so far, we haven't made a coordinated, all-in, everyone do your part, response.  We have argued, bickered, and disagreed, about how it came here, and who does and does not want to do this or that, or who believes this, but not that, but we have not made a unified response.  This unified, all in, nationwide plan should be the focus of our Energy and Resources, instead of using them in a hit or missmanner. Once we have COVID19 in manageable shape, hopefully we will all have plenty of time to disagree.  

We certainly knew we were a risk for a pandemic.  As low as I am on the Health Care Information feeding chain, I knew.  

As you say, this is how you do it, I hope we can learn.

[pitdakota]

Amen @Drythe!   And you are not low on the feeding chain, my public health buddy!  Those of us that know public health, know public health.  We also used to have an epidemiologist that posted here but I haven't seen her in quite some time. 

Never been more obvious than today.  And all of the noise trying to discredit the numbers, severity, or blame other countries is just that....noise.  It is our lesson to learn.  Or not.   But sadly many people while they are trying to do that will risk their own safety or be responsible for risking the health of someone else.  We shall see if we learn the lesson or not. There is always hope. 

[Trinity11]

---

@pitdakota wrote:

---

@gardenman wrote:

---

@RealtyGal2 wrote:

---

@Nancy Drew wrote:

The Good News 

From the CDC July 12

United States Population 330,917,584 ( million)

Total Covid Cases 3,236,130

Total Deaths 134,572

Less than 1 % of Americans have caught Covid

Current Survival Rate 99.96 % of the Us population. 
Hopes this eases some fears.

---

While I appreciate you trying to find some good news amid all the bad, don't get too excited because we are so far behind in testing that the numbers are much worse than reflected. In addition, now that they are re-routing the numbers to the governments new system, we may never know the real numbers.

---

We don't know the "real numbers" now, so it likely won't get any worse and may improve under the new system. The CDC just lumps every "positive" test together. They're not all the same though. PCR testing is the most accurate and tells if the virus is in a person now. That's the most important number, but the CDC doesn't report it separately. Antibody testing largely tells you if the person had contact with Covid-19 or a related coronavirus, but not if they currently have it. And some states now are listing some people who have symptoms or contact with a known infected person as "presumed positive" even though they haven't been tested or the results aren't back yet. All of those three categories are now lumped together as "positive tests" which tells us absolutely nothing. 

To get an accurate picture, we need those three categories reported separately. If someone had Covid-19 three months ago and just now got an antibody test, they've long, long since passed the shedding stage and frankly, it doesn't matter if they test antibody positive now. If in ten thousand positive test results there are only five hundred PCR tests showing active virus it's a lot different from all ten thousand showing active virus.

There's a lot of hysteria about the number of "positive tests" but without knowing which tests (if any) are showing those results, it's impossible to know if the hysteria is justified or not. The "presumed positive" test results are the sketchiest. In NJ you had to have symptoms or have been in contact with a known infected person to get tested early on. About 95% of those tested at that time who met those preconditions came back negative. Now in some states, just meeting those criteria makes you an assumed positive person. Are they really infected? Maybe. Maybe not. 

We need the numbers broken down by the type of test performed. Without that and with some states making up their own rules as they go, the numbers are just a mess. The CDC has the numbers for each type of test performed, but doesn't release them. They just bunch them all together and that tells us nothing of real value. If the kids in this post were tested using PCR, it's one thing. If they tested positive due to one of the iffier antibody tests that may be detecting the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, it's another thing. If they're presumed to have it because they ran a fever, coughed, or were around someone with the virus it's another thing.

The data we have now is a mess. Every type of test is lumped together and even some non-testing is thrown in. It makes it impossible to know what's going on. Maybe that's what the powers-that-be want. I don't know, but the data can't be any less accurate coming from the HHS than it is from the CDC, so let's see what happens. The good news is the numbers we have now are likely the current worst-case numbers since everything's lumped together. Once we get the testing sorted out by category (assuming the HHS does that) we should get a truer picture of how things stand. 

---

______________________________________________

@gardenman, your information is outdated.  Most states, including Georgia that lagged behind in separating out PCR versus serology results have now separated the data that they report and the CDC data was separated.  My state always separated the data between serology and PCR results.  Another problem that arose from not having a national plan to deal with the pandemic.

Furthermore with the research they have done on following antibodies in those that had confirmed cases of covid-19 they have a preponderance of evidence that it is highly unlikely that even if someone was just somehow "insignificantly" exposed that they would test positive for antibodies even if they didn't have it, as you imply.  The work they have done on research with antibodies for convalescent plasma are showing that antibody levels may be dropping significantly even in people that had serious confirmed cases of covid-19.  And highly unlikely we have hundreds of thousands of cases in which serology tests revealed false positive antibodies because the person had a cold.  Could be an isolated case here or ther, but it isn't going to distort the data that much.

I won't even mention the work they have done of vaccine development which lends credence to evidence that it takes a pretty good "exposure" to ilicit anitbody response in humans.  Thus the release of results from the latest vaccine trial of 50% of volunteers in that trial that experience side effects from the dose of the vaccine.  ( I might add that the side effects were fairly mild, but still a little high for that particular stage of a vaccine trial). Based on research completed, lower doses did not ilicit desired antibody development.  So highly unlikely that someone that just had "contact" with someone else with SARS-CoV-2 would have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detected on serology exam.  

Epidemiologists that cautioned combining the data warned that including serology results in the overall number did give a picture of overall disease burden, but certainly not what you are implying that the numbers would be falsely elevated.  In fact, they cautioned that including serology could in fact lower positivity rates which is a number that most in public health watch like a hawk.  That is the information medical professionals use to determine community transmission and make decisions on resources.  Here is an article that discusses the situation that I think will pass to be linked since it doesn't have sidebars:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/21/860480756/scientists-warn-cdc-testi... 

That is what the experts were concerned about.   At any rate, the numbers are now and have been reported out separately for some time by the CDC.  That information has been available via the CDC for medical professionals for some time. 

And I don't even know where to go with your statement about presumed positive?????   Presumed positive is a classification assigned by the CDC for someone that tested positive at a local level but  is pending testing results from the lab based at the CDC.  There are a number of different agencies out there doing PCR testing including tribal associations in which the test they are using might not be verified by the CDC so those must also be tested by the CDC before actually counting it as a positive case.

Presumed positive has nothing to do with meeting any criteria as to whether or not one is positive or negative.  In some areas one might have to meet certain criteria in order to be tested, but once tested a presumed positive means that test came back positive but is from a testing site and needs to be confirmed by the CDC.

Anyone that works with public health data of any type knows it can be muddy at times.  Sometimes you just have to shake your head when someone that doesn't really have a good understanding of epidemiology but doesn't realize what they don't know is trying to say 2 plus 2 equals 10 in order to downplay the disease burden for this disease and writing it off as hysteria.   

Fact is this is a serious disease that has a very high rate of transmission when left unchecked.  It is also somewhat fascinating that it has such a wide range of clinical presentation hallmarked by a long incubation period of high transmission with people having no symptoms.

Positivity rates are through the roof in areas of Arizona, Texas, and Florida specifically.  Trying to cite misguided and outdated information about presumed positive and clumping PCR and serology results together to downplay the significance doesn't go very far for those that have lost children, loved ones or explain away those high positivity rates, ordering refrigerated trucks because local morgues can no longer handle all the dead bodies, or making plans to have field hospitals set up. 

We are where we are today largely due to the most powerful individuals trying to downplay the significance, give out distorted and misguided information in order to make things look better than they really were.  Time to stop trying to make 2+2=10 and face reality on the ground.

People need to start listening to their public health experts and doing their part to bring the transmission rate down & taking proper precautions. 

---

Thank you @pitdakotafor your factual, based on science and not a lot of conjecture, posts. I continue to learn so much from you (even on a personal level.) Our conversation about my heart attacks a few years ago, you cleared up many questions I had that my physician never did. You gave me a lot of hope for the future and now a few years later I am blessed to be able to read your posts here....so thank you so much.