Community Chat

[Linmo]

---

@JaneMarple wrote:

I just read this on twitter:

The Washington Post

@washingtonpost

· 6m

The May jobs report had "misclassification error" that made the unemployment rate look lower than it is. Here’s what happened. https://wapo.st/2MB4Cvj

---

@JaneMarpleThanks for posting.   I was wondering why the numbers were so different than the forecast.    I'm glad to read that there's a reasonable explanation other than someone tampering with the numbers.  Even taking that into consideration, it's still a good report.

[Hippiified]

This is a "yes, but" situation.

[tansy]

"When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report."

Wahington Post, Business section

[Firefly901]

That "miscalculation error" resulted in some people making millions of dollars in the market today.  While everyone questioned the numbers in their mind when they saw it,  the numbers were there, and they gladly took the money.  

[PamfromCT]

Yes, the market will jump up at even a hint of good news.  My DH manages our investments, and all the factors involved sometimes seem crazy.  I am happy to see new jobs created, but my biggest hope is to see people paid a good living wage with meaningful benefits.  

[Isobel Archer]

I'm sure the number of burned out businesses will also contribute to slower economic growth than would have occurred otherwise.

However, despite the virus and the riots, I think we are going to have a comeback that will continue to surprise most.-

[gardenman]

---

@Isobel Archer wrote:

I'm sure the number of burned out businesses will also contribute to slower economic growth than would have occurred otherwise.

However, despite the virus and the riots, I think we are going to have a comeback that will continue to surprise most - particularly those that may not want to see it happen. 

---

The burned-out businesses may spur growth in suburban areas less prone to rioting. If you've got to rebuild your business do you do it where you know the community might burn you out or do you move a few miles and build it where you're safer? 

Both the virus and rioting have many city residents rethinking the city lifestyle. Those living in more rural areas were far less likely to get Covid-19 and had fewer rioting issues. We could see a great exodus of people leaving the major cities and heading for safer, more rural areas as a result of both events. 

As to the rebound, we're a consumer-based economy. Consumers are going to want and need everything they wanted and needed before the lockdown. Our ability/willingness to supply other countries with ventilators, test kits, and PPE during the Covid-19 crisis could lead to more international trade going from the US to those countries. (China sending defective test kits and PPE didn't help them a lot.) Made in the USA is starting to reflect a higher quality product for much of the world. Made in China, not so much. 

The paper companies like Scott, may ironically, get hit pretty hard over the coming months and feature layoffs and temporary closing of plants. So many people have stockpiled paper goods that there will be less demand as people rely on their stockpiles instead of buying new products. 

[esmerelda]

@gardenman I’ll be buying!  Paper shelves at my store are still empty. Maybe I go on the wrong day. Maybe people go in and clear them out to hoard or resell. Maybe the store hasn’t received any since the beginning (unlikely). I don’t know. Fortunately I have a connection, so I don’t worry about it. 

Back to the topic...still 2.5 million jobs.   And even taking into account the “misclassification error,” the rate is below what was predicted.  

[esmerelda]

---

@PamfromCT wrote:

Yes, the market will jump up at even a hint of good news.  My DH manages our investments, and all the factors involved sometimes seem crazy.  I am happy to see new jobs created, but my biggest hope is to see people paid a good living wage with meaningful benefits.  

---

@PamfromCT Yes, in a perfect world.  In this real world which would you like to see...12 low-skilled/unskilled full-time workers with benefits or 24 low-skilled/unskilled part-time workers with jobs?

[JaneMarple]

Contrary to everything you probably heard Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate went UP, not down last month - likely topping 16%. Millions of workers who should have been counted as unemployed for coronavirus closures were instead counted as employed but absent for “other reasons.” twitter.com/washingtonpost…