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Respected Contributor
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Registered: ‎03-16-2010

There have recently been several retrospective observational studies published that reveal that viral load in persons positive for coronavirus is decreasing from earlier days.

 

Viral load is the concentration of virus noted in a person at the time of diagnosis when labs are done to determine viral load.

 

This research suggests that viral load is decreasing in cases diagnosed today as compared to when this first started.  I will try and post a link to a presentation of one research study conducted here in the US.  But similar studies in Italy and other countries are documenting similar findings.  

 

Based on the findings of these studies, one can surmise that decreased viral load contributes to fewer deaths especially since it is well documented that a significant majority of people with high viral loads at time of diagnosis died.  It also lends credence to public health measures that social distancing and wearing masks are beneficial since even if someone does contract covid-19 they may have a lower viral load and therefore have a better chance of having a successful outcome.

 

I will try to link the presentation of just one of these studies for those that are interested:

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10AWAhVurFq2-R8AIvjC3sEMaN58xiLrG/view 

 

In case this presentation doesn't load properly if you are interested the title of the presentation is "Declining Trend in the Initial SARS-Cov-2 Viral Load Over Time: Observations from Detriot, Michigan. 

 

It is just one of the observational studies that documents declining viral load in patients over time.  

 

 


* Freedom has a taste the protected will never know *
Honored Contributor
Posts: 33,580
Registered: ‎03-10-2010

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

@pitdakota , since you are on this thread, I want to ask you a question rather than start a whole topic about this.  I hope you don't mind.

 

I have heard many, many warnings by the CDC and other health professionals about the upcoming flu season combining with the current pandemic.

 

Here is what I cannot wrap my brain around.  If people are wearing masks, social distancing, washing their hands more than ever and disinfecting/ cleaning more, plus the fact that there is a flu vaccine, shouldn't that greatly reduce our upcoming flu season?  I know not everyone gets the vaccine but that aside, if our flu season is that bad, is that proof that all of this isn't really working?     

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Registered: ‎01-14-2017

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load


@Lipstickdiva wrote:

@pitdakota , since you are on this thread, I want to ask you a question rather than start a whole topic about this.  I hope you don't mind.

 

I have heard many, many warnings by the CDC and other health professionals about the upcoming flu season combining with the current pandemic.

 

Here is what I cannot wrap my brain around.  If people are wearing masks, social distancing, washing their hands more than ever and disinfecting/ cleaning more, plus the fact that there is a flu vaccine, shouldn't that greatly reduce our upcoming flu season?  I know not everyone gets the vaccine but that aside, if our flu season is that bad, is that proof that all of this isn't really working?     


Hi @Lipstickdiva I have heard medical experts on TV state that all these things that we are doing to keep from getting infected from Covid will also help us from getting infected with the flu.  So that is good news.  I think the warnings you have heard are for the people to take care and stick with the guidelines.

Honored Contributor
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Registered: ‎05-22-2016

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

Health care providers are urging people to get their flu shots so that if and when a person does get sick, then the treating physician(s) can quickly rule out the probable cause as being the flu and proceed to make efforts to isolate and prevent further spread of covid.

Respected Contributor
Posts: 3,970
Registered: ‎03-16-2010

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

[ Edited ]

@Lipstickdiva wrote:

@pitdakota , since you are on this thread, I want to ask you a question rather than start a whole topic about this.  I hope you don't mind.

 

I have heard many, many warnings by the CDC and other health professionals about the upcoming flu season combining with the current pandemic.

 

Here is what I cannot wrap my brain around.  If people are wearing masks, social distancing, washing their hands more than ever and disinfecting/ cleaning more, plus the fact that there is a flu vaccine, shouldn't that greatly reduce our upcoming flu season?  I know not everyone gets the vaccine but that aside, if our flu season is that bad, is that proof that all of this isn't really working?     


__________________________________________________________

 

@Lipstickdiva,   Yes, for individuals that are following all those practices it should certainly help decrease the risk of contracting influenza this flu season.  However, that means for people that are following those guidelines.  

 

I am in a state where many are not following the guidelines at all, despite rising numbers of cases in those counties.  They do not wear masks, get together with all kinds of people for various indoor functions, etc.   I have posted before we have a gas/food mart business in the southeastern part of the state that gladly advertises they specifically will not serve anyone wearing a mask.  In my county, most people comply but that is not the case throughout the state.

 

Additionally, we still face the same problem with influenza as we do with SARS-CoV-2.  Young individuals don't think it is a problem for them so they don't follow the guidelines and then subsequently expose older individuals.  They eventually wind up in contact with someone in an indoors situation and present a significant exposure risk to those that are older.  Those young individuals could certainly expose parents or grandparents to influenza as well.  

 

This is also coming at a time when states that have had fairly cautious restrictions are also now advancing to reopen more businesses or allowing places such as eating establishments to increase capacity. 

 

In many areas we have kids going back to in person school which presents a challenge for young elementary aged children since it is difficult for them to even understand the importance of washing their hands.  Meaning cases of flu could still go throughout a particular elementary school with those children possibly exposing their parents, grandparents, caregivers, etc.

 

So there are many factors that could possibly contribute to having certain areas that start to really struggle with cases of influenza. 

 

Hopefully though, the more people that take precautions we will see fewer cases of influenza this season.  I guess time will tell and it really depends on people following the guidelines and making good decisions during flu season.

 

ETA:  and @Lipstickdiva, I don't mind a bit! 

 

 

 


* Freedom has a taste the protected will never know *
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Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load


@SilleeMee wrote:

Health care providers are urging people to get their flu shots so that if and when a person does get sick, then the treating physician(s) can quickly rule out the probable cause as being the flu and proceed to make efforts to isolate and prevent further spread of covid.


@SilleeMee I don't see how knowing if a person got the flu shot can quickly rule out the flu since there are different flu strains and the flu shot only works on the strains the shot was developed for that year which might not be the one that's going around.  So a flu test would still need to be performed.  

 

I heard it in the context of we need to continue to be vigilant so that we don't overwhelm the health care system with both covid cases and flu cases.  I did hear the flu this year in the southern hemisphere was light.  

Honored Contributor
Posts: 8,311
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

[ Edited ]

I believe the southern hemisphere had a lighter than normal flu season which many experts attribute to the precautions being used for Covid: masks, social distancing etc. As for our flu season, there are several factors. Hospitals are generally packed in the winter anyway with the flu patients. Add Covid on top of that and you’ve got a real problem. Also as an individual, it is possible to get both the flu and Covid - doesn’t sound good, does it? Hence, public health officials are urging people to get a flu vaccine this year. As has been stated many times before, getting the vaccine doesn’t guarantee you won’t get the flu but, if you do contract it you will most likely get a much milder case.

Honored Contributor
Posts: 21,733
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load


@pitdakota wrote:

There have recently been several retrospective observational studies published that reveal that viral load in persons positive for coronavirus is decreasing from earlier days.

 

Viral load is the concentration of virus noted in a person at the time of diagnosis when labs are done to determine viral load.

 

This research suggests that viral load is decreasing in cases diagnosed today as compared to when this first started.  I will try and post a link to a presentation of one research study conducted here in the US.  But similar studies in Italy and other countries are documenting similar findings.  

 

Based on the findings of these studies, one can surmise that decreased viral load contributes to fewer deaths especially since it is well documented that a significant majority of people with high viral loads at time of diagnosis died. 

 

 

I will try to link the presentation of just one of these studies for those that are interested:

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10AWAhVurFq2-R8AIvjC3sEMaN58xiLrG/view 

 

In case this presentation doesn't load properly if you are interested the title of the presentation is "Declining Trend in the Initial SARS-Cov-2 Viral Load Over Time: Observations from Detriot, Michigan. 

 

It is just one of the observational studies that documents declining viral load in patients over time.  

 

 


@pitdakota, could you please directly connect this lower viral load to the safety precautions advised? Is it a matter of receiving fewer virus drops?

 

I ask this not so much for me but for the group less likely accept the importance of these precautions, the group that prefers outlier ideas.


~Who in the world am I? Ah, that's the great puzzle~ Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Respected Contributor
Posts: 3,970
Registered: ‎03-16-2010

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

@suzyQ3, each respiratory droplet can potentially contain quite a few active viruses and other particles may not contain as many at any given time.  Respiratory droplets themselves will vary in size.

 

Also in some cases respiratory droplets can travel farther than 6 feet and in some cases we know that SARS-CoV-2 is airborne.  

 

Then there are circumstances in which the particles become aresolized which causes airborne circulation.  Meaning the viruses are freely circulating and floating around in the air.

 

Let me see if I can explain this.  So if a person wearing a mask has an exposure it is certainly feasible that they actually inhale far fewer viruses than if they weren't wearing a mask.  So the mask doesn't totally filter out every single virus, but what does get through is not at the concentration level of viruses that would be inhaled without the mask.  

 

Even though infection results, it can lead to an infection with a lower viral load and improve one's chances of having a successful outcome with the illness.  

 

The same would hold true for the infected person wearing a mask.  No one measure is a 100% guarantee.  So even if some particles escape from behind that mask and present an expsoure to someone else, they are not receiving the number of viruses they would in the case the infected person wasn't wearing a mask.

 

I think that sometimes people think of an isolated virus in one respiratory droplet and maybe don't realize there are multiple respiratory droplets emitted with talking, singing, coughing, sneezing, etc.  All of those respiratory droplets contains viruses. They are flying all over the place with just talking.

 

Stay tuned for more research in this area because it does tend to support that wearing a mask can turn out to be a certain level of protection for the person wearing the mask as well.

 

Since the beginning of this pandemic, I have acted on that principle.  No doubt that if I happen to be infected that keeping my emissions closer to my face protects others.  But it also just seems to reason that if I am wearing a mask and experience an exposure from someone else the mask might not stop each and every virus coming my way, but it might filter out some and to me that is never a bad thing.  lol   So it will be interesting to see what further research determines in that area. 

 

 

 

 

 


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Honored Contributor
Posts: 35,598
Registered: ‎05-22-2016

Re: Covid-19 Reduced Viral Load

[ Edited ]

Could the lower loads also be a result of using antivirals as well as other drugs used to enhance the overall health of an individual? 

 

When I had covid in the hospital, I was given an antiviral, a steroid and an anti-inflammatory.