I think people are overestimating the value and importance of testing. Suppose you test negative. How does that change what you do? How does it change what you do if you test positive? You should be doing the same thing either way. Tests tend to have both false positives and false negatives also, so you can't be absolutely sure your test is accurate. Some say they just want it for peace of mind. But as soon as you're out in public again, there's a chance you've been exposed again. Do you get tested yet again? If there was a specific cure or treatment out there that would wipe out the virus, then yes, get tested. But there isn't. Whatever will happen will happen regardless of the test result.
As of this morning 3/15/2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) says there are about 160,000 infections worldwide. That's not a huge percentage out of 7.8 billion people. The infections are concentrated in China, Iran, and Italy. In the US we have a reported 3052 cases as I type this. India oddly enough only has a reported 107 cases despite a very high population density.
An easily spread, airborne virus with a high mortality rate is a big threat, but the numbers indicate that it's not as easily spread as many have assumed. It's been around for about four months and only 160,000 in total have been infected. And bear in mind that many of them have now recovered and are no longer infectious. There seems to be a two week or so period where you're infectious and asymptomatic. How many actively infectious people are out there spreading the virus at this moment? Probably not nearly as many as most people think. And I strongly suspect the virus isn't nearly as easy to transmit as we're being led to believe.
The total number of recovered people according to the WHO as of the moment I'm writing this is 76,195 out of the 159,367 who they say were infected. That means that as of this moment there are likely somewhere around 83,000 plus people worldwide who could be spreading the virus. Could be, is the operative phrase here. If this virus was easy to spread, a lot more people would have gotten it.
If each person with it infected just one other person each day, not hard with an easily spread virus, then on day two there would be two people infected. On day three that number would increase to four people infected. Each day the number would double until by day 35 eight-plus billion people would be infected. (Actually, a bit less than that as those infected earliest would no longer be infectious by day 35, but it would still be a much higher number than what we're seeing.) We're somewhere around day 120 now and only 160,000 people have been infected. The math indicates that this isn't as easily spread as many would like us to believe. The numbers just don't add up like you'd expect if this was an easily spread virus.
Would testing absolutely everyone tell us more about how widespread the virus is? Yes. Would it matter? Not at all. Why not? Because there's no magic bullet to kill the virus. Short of imprisoning everyone with the virus, you can't guarantee they won't do what they're not supposed to do and continue to spread the virus. It's not a horrible failure that testing isn't more widely available. The testing really plays no role other than offering some people a false sense of security. You can test negative for the virus and get infected on your way home from the testing.
The rest of the world is now more or less experiencing what the hemophiliac population went through in the eighties. There's a scary virus out there that you may have been exposed to, or could be exposed to in the near future. There's no cure available. The good news is the coronavirus isn't 100% fatal. In fact, it's just 3% fatal, give or take a bit. The vast majority will simply have flu-like symptoms that will resolve in a few days/weeks and then you'll be immune to it afterward. It's truly not the end of the world. Everyone just needs to take a deep breath and relax a bit. Turn off the news. Just hunker down, watch some movies and relax. We'll get through this. I can assure you it could be a whole lot worse.
Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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