I give Cody a bit of a pass on this first hoh. Pregaming aside, walking into a cold house (actually freezing as the players are saying it's like the Arctic Circle!), but figuratively as well with some people that were expected, some not, and having only what amounts to a day and a half to figure it out would be hard. The organic split happened almost immediately with the old/new school sides and Cody, as you said, choose the two main threats not in the his group. Then, just as he was feeling good about his choice, along comes the Safety Suite twist and there goes his plan. During that time he was able to see how few players were actually on the old school side. It was pretty much just Janelle and Kaysar who are safe, Keesha, and Memphis who, in reality, is aligned with Cody. It didn't leave him much to choose from.
Granted the best move would be to look for the next two most dangerous players. The problem was that nobody was making alliances. Everyone was, and still is, dancing around who is going to solidly align with who.
Then it starts to look like everyone wants to align with Cody including Janelle and possibly even Kaysar which, again, leaves him with few choices. In the end he decided to go with the two people he knew the least, would create the smallest wave, and hoping that whoever stayed wasn't going to want major revenge. Considering everyone that wants to work with him I can see where he was in a tight spot. He didn't want to pick the wrong people and make unintentional enemies so he looked for the two people who seemed the least connected. His only other choices fitting those criteria were Nicole A and Ian. NicA is even less of threat and Ian, if he could be recruited, would be a major asset on Cody's side and so far it's hard to gauge where Ian will fit in.
It seems like first hoh should be pretty easy. There are 15 people to choose from they're all strangers. This season it's different. He had 15 people but he knew most of them and the ones who saw as threatening were saved with a twist. I think once the two sides become more solid choosing the targets should be easier.
Adding to everything is that Cody is a pretty simple minded guy. I don't mean he's stupid--I don't think he's stupid by any means. He's just not a great strategist. If Cody is going to get far he needs a partner like what he had with Derrick. Enzo is a bit of a hothead and he talks too much. Memphis, from what I've seen so far, isn't a big step above Cody in the strategy department. He's good, and likely loyal, but Cody needs a major thinker--someone who isn't playing day to day but seeing the long game. Personally I think that guy is either Ian or Tyler. The question is...
WHERE ARE THE FREAKING ALLIANCES!!! :
Sorry about that, I was just having a mini-meltdown.