With the first wave of free agency now winding down, who came out ahead, and who came out behind. Let's start with the AFC East. The Patriots haven't done a lot but did add Michael Bennett as a pass rushing threat. Will he fit in with New England? We'll see, but until the Pats lose Tom Brady they'll always be a threat. The Jets were very active and are clearly better than they were with Le'Veon Bell, Mosley and others. Are they good enough to challenge the Patriots? Probably not. The Bills also made a bunch of moves to get stronger and are clearly bettter than last year at this time. The Dolphins, well the weather's nice in Miami. They may be tanking for Tua.
In the AFC North the Browns did the most to get stronger. The Steelers are weaker. The Ravens are stronger. The Bengals, well they're the Bengals. They're stuck in that no-mans land where they win enough to never get a top draft pick, but lose too much to be competitive. If they try to tank for Tua they'll win too many games and miss out.
In the AFC South the Jaguars should be better with some stability at quarterback, but they need the good Nick Foles, not the so-so one. The Colts are stronger. The Titans are a bit stronger as are the Texans. No one seems to be tanking for Tua in ths AFC South. That could be a four team dogfight all season for the title.
The AFC West is interesting. The Chiefs have essentially thrown away their defense (Houston, Ford, Berry all gone.) I'm not sure how effective that is as a strategy. If I had to give them a grade, I'd say they were weaker now than before. The Chargers look about the same, give or take a bit. Denver could be in the tank for Tua sweepstakes. I'm not impressed by their trading for Flacco. The Raiders, well, they got AB and some other decent players without having to give up any of their three first round picks. If they hit it with those picks and Derek Carr plays well, they could be pretty good. They may be the most improved team in the AFC West. Maybe in the whole league.
The NFC East has the Giants making a number of head scratching moves. They're clearly not as good as they were before all of this. I'm assuming they're tanking for Tua, so watch them trade up to draft a QB this year. The Cowboys have been very quiet so far due to cap issues. They resurrected Witten from the dead, but can he still play at a high level? Their defensive line is a bit of a mess having lost two guys and then Lawrence holding out for a new deal. The Redskins are still in QB purgatory with two career backups in Keenum and McCoy competing to be the starter. The Landon Collins signing is okay, but they paid a lot for a box safety. The Eagles didn't make a big splash in free agency, but they pulled off some good trades and resignings to fill holes and appear a bit stronger.
In the NFC North the Packers have been unusually aggressive and really gone after top tier defensive players. Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit have all made moves to get stronger also. QB play in the NFC north will likely determine a winner there this year. All four teams have QB's with potential, who are somewhat hit and miss.
In the NFC South, the Saints seem to have done the most to strengthen the team. The Falcons added a few pieces, but not too much. The Panthers are in a holding pattern and could be in on the tank for Tua sweepstakes depending on what happens with Cam's shoulder. Tampa, well they're Tampa. They probably don't have to tank for Tua, they'll just be there naturally.
The NFC West looks kind of crazy this year. The Cards are making some moves, but their head coaching situation is a bit of a head scratcher to me. The Rams have been pretty quiet while the Seahawks and Niners are scooping up lots of guys. The Niners could end up being pretty good this year.
When you look at the makeup of the divisions, the teams that seem to have the easiest path to the playoffs are the Eagles (Dallas is the only real threat in the NFC East and they've got issues,) the Saints and the Bears in the NFC. The Seahawks and Niners look to give the Rams some trouble this year. Todd Gurley's knee could be a big issue for the Rams. The Rams should still emerge on top, but getting more than ten wins could be a challenge for them.
In the AFC, the Patriots look like the surest thing. The Bills and Jets could challenge them a bit. The other divisions look messy with few clearly dominant teams. The Browns are likely the most improved team, but that AFC North is never easy to win.
Home field advantage in the playoffs is huge and right now I'd say the Patriots have the clearest shot at getting it in the AFC, the Eagles and Saints have the best shot in the NFC. The Saints may have the easiest overall path. Tampa and Carolina are unlikely to threaten them at all and Atlanta needs to rebound, but can they? I could see the Saints going 14-2 and taking home field advantage through the playoffs. The Eagles will likely be 12-4 or 13-3 and come in behind the Saints.
Of course, that will all change once the games really start. Injuries, surprising play by rookies and some vets, suspensions, and more will all change the course of the season a time or two. That's what makes the NFL great.
Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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But Payton could be looking elsewhere he was linked to the Rams before McVay got the job...maybe he will leave when Brees does
