Community Chat

[Bhvbum]

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@Linmo wrote:
@Bhvbum How do we know that only 5% of our population has been infected?  Only a small percentage of people have been tested.  Many people who get the virus are asymptomatic.  We won't know the percentage unless everyone is tested for antibodies.

I got the info from Dr. Michel Osterholm, Dir. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy on MSNBC today. 

And you are right we don't know because our lack of testing. When NY State randomly tested 10,000 recently about 14% tested positive.  Problem is we also have Utah, WY, IA, KS, ND, etc. states with low population.  Regardless herd immunity is about 227 Milliion that will have to be infected without a vaccine.  We are nowhere close to that.

[suzyQ3]

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@Bhvbum wrote:

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@Linmo wrote:
@Bhvbum How do we know that only 5% of our population has been infected?  Only a small percentage of people have been tested.  Many people who get the virus are asymptomatic.  We won't know the percentage unless everyone is tested for antibodies.

I got the info from Dr. Michel Osterholm, Dir. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy on MSNBC today. 

And you are right we don't know because our lack of testing. When NY State randomly tested 10,000 recently about 14% tested positive.  Problem is we also have Utah, WY, IA, KS, ND, etc. states with low population.  Regardless herd immunity is about 227 Milliion that will have to be infected without a vaccine.  We are nowhere close to that.

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@Bhvbum, thank goodness. That is a brutal and inhumane way to achieve herd immunity.

[Mindy D]

If you look closely, you can compare tests per million for each state. You can also see total tests, total active cases,new cases, total cases.

[Mindy D]

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@Bhvbum wrote:

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Thank you for posting these, did you intend for all of the states to be listed?  Looks like there are a lot of them that aren't shown, but we can go to that website and look ourselves. The graphs all show the numbers are certainly not going in the right direction.

And think about all the work that we have done and we only have about 5% of our population has actually been infected.

To get enough immunity by having people infected means that somewhere between 60 and 70% of the population needs to have gotten it. We are nowhere close to that number yet.

We have a long way to go before we get a vaccine.

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@Bhvbum @The states are all displayed but they are in two post boxes. Hopefully, we'll never get to the numbers required for naturally occurring herd immunity. We're trying for mass vaccination to induce herd immunity. If memory serves me, I think we'd need to get in the high 80's percentile to get to herd immunity. Might even be in the 90's. 

To set a threshold, epidemiologists use a value called "basic reproduction number," often referred to as "R0." This number represents how many people in an unprotected population one infected person could pass the disease along to. For example, R0 for measles is between 12 and 18, while for polio, it is between five and seven.The higher this number is, the higher the immunity threshold must be to protect the community. Because measles is extremely contagious and can spread through the air, for example, the immunity threshold needed to protect a community is high, at 95%. Diseases like polio, which are a little less contagious, have a lower threshold—80% to 85% in the case of polio.

[BLH]

Gov. Wolf, Dr. Levine and the people of PA have done a great job. It could have been alot worse with two big cities.

[lianne]

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@riley1 wrote:

@Helen852 - Gov. Cuomo has done great job and is still on top of things in NY. 

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The most important thing is Cuomo is not lying about the numbers like some other governors.

He is also not asking the local hospitals and the states health department to lie about the numbers and he's not firing health officials for telling the truth either.

Many other states could learn from him.