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Respected Contributor
Posts: 3,940
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

I’d be surprised if 50% of the population agree to get a vaccine.
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Honored Contributor
Posts: 11,359
Registered: ‎03-10-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

 

Hello there @mominohio 

 

 For me  during all of my adult life I have never paid any more attention to phrases that end with the word "if", than I have to the old past tense "should'a/could'a/would'a".

 

Even my mom used to tell me do this, do that, "for your future", but I said the same things to her in the '50's that I still say today. I live for, and in the present, not the future or the past.

 

I can't change the past nor can I predict my future. What I can do is make the most of every one of my present days, and that I will continue to do until I physically or mentally can not.

 

You have seen me say it in many of my posts, I live 1 day at a time. This was before and after my many brushes with possibly dying, and I have no intention or reason to change to now because of a virus.

 

"What if"? With luck and doing my best to stay physically fit and healthy, I may be around long enough to possibly find out those answers.

 

 

hckynut 🏒

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Respected Contributor
Posts: 4,851
Registered: ‎01-27-2014

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

I agree that the coronavirus is going to be with us much longer than most folks believe. Most people appear to be in denial about that....as evidenced by the fact that many STILL refuse to wear masks or socially distance. It is baffling to me. Americans can be so ignorant.....and it is killing us. Ignorance is NOT bliss.

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Honored Contributor
Posts: 11,343
Registered: ‎03-13-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

[ Edited ]

I'm old enough to have gone thru a couple polio epidemics BEFORE Jonas Salk made the brilliant discovery............

♥Surface of the Sun♥
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Honored Contributor
Posts: 9,289
Registered: ‎03-13-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

I think your concerns are valid.  I think about it sometimes, too.  DH and I always are worried about just the regular flu since we have serious health issues.  We get our flu shots faithfully and then think -- well, is this batch a good one?

 

I have pondered the same thing as mominohio.  How long will the development of a vaccine take, how effective will it be and how long before it will be available for the general population?

 

Things seemed to be improving but now we hear on the news that cases in many areas are really going up again.  Due to many things, probably some of which are the constant demonstrations of large gatherings, people not social distancing, not wearing masks or not wearing them properly (cover your nose also), people traveling, etc.  I hear where bars in some area are now being restricted again.  

 

So, where this is all going and when it will get resolved --- good question!  

"A day without sunshine is like, you know, night." - Steve Martin
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Honored Contributor
Posts: 15,617
Registered: ‎10-04-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

No I haven't gone that far.  I too, believe in our people to find an answer.  I know that they haven't cured the common cold, or cancer, but I choose to believe that we will find a way.

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Valued Contributor
Posts: 600
Registered: ‎06-30-2018

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

[ Edited ]

Funny thing is I have a tendency toward pessimism and worry but I haven't spent any time being bothered by this thought.  I am optimistic that a vaccine will be developed sooner than anticipated.  But I tell ya what I am bothered about.  People.  I have been angry and dismayed at people's attitudes in this country in general.  I never thought there were so many Ignorant and selfish people. People who don't understand science and who don't know what it is to make small sacrifices for the good of everyone. And that is what worries me about the future.  It's one thing to have understandable guidelines to follow or a vaccine.  It's another to have people's cooperation.  Without people's cooperation we are fighting a losing battle IMO.

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Honored Contributor
Posts: 15,189
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Those assuming a vaccine is just around the corner should remember that HIV has been around since the mid-seventies and there's still no vaccine. Four coronaviruses are responsible for many of the common colds we get and there's no common cold vaccine.

 

The good news is Covid-19 almost seems to be creating its own vaccine. A recent (6/22/2020) Penn State study (here's the link if anyone's interested.  https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-time... ) that looks at influenza-like illnesses this year compared to past years, finds that the virus was likely 80+ times more widespread than reported in March. They report that their findings show that 8.7 million people had the virus instead of the 100,000+ that's been reported.

 

If you assume their report of 8.7 million infected is correct and you look at the number of deaths as of March 31st (4,216) you get a death rate of 0.048% which is half that of the "typical" flu's death rate of 0.1%.

 

If their numbers are correct (and personally I have some doubts as NJ's death rate even if you assume everyone in the state had the virus is still higher than that, but those are their numbers) then there's a 99.952% chance of you surviving Covid-19.

 

If there were truly 8.7 million Americans with the virus in March, then the number now infected would be vastly higher. Officially now we have 2.5 million people with confirmed cases. If that number is also off eighty-fold then the real number of infected would be more like 200 million. We'd be getting very close to herd immunity at that number.

 

Reports indicate that the vast majority of people (80% is commonly cited) have no symptoms whatsoever and an additional 15% have mild to moderate symptoms with only 5% having more serious issues. The deaths from Covid-19 are dropping even as the number of cases increases which implies that the commonly circulating form has evolved into a less deadly version. 

 

If the virus is as widespread as the Penn State reports indicate it could be, then it's pretty much becoming self-vaccinating. By the time a vaccine is ready (if one ever is) nearly everyone will have had it and have some level of immunity. To the best of my knowledge, there have been no factual cases of someone getting Covid-19 twice. There are some anecdotal claims, but if the virus is as widespread as the Penn State study assumes then many people likely have had multiple exposures to it and we should have some firm cases of reinfection which we don't currently have.

 

Until the CDC releases antibody test numbers,  we won't know what to believe. Our numbers we have now are essentially the worst-case numbers in terms of the death rate. The one solid number we have are the number of dead. There are reports that even those numbers could be inflated as people who died with Covid-19 are being lumped with those who died from Covid-19. And yes, there's a difference. 

 

The numbers right now aren't horrible. The deaths are dropping. More infections are being found as we're doing more testing, but the vast majority of those testing positive are having few if any symptoms. Once infected and the virus is cleared, it appears that people are then immune at least for a bit. It's not the end of the world.

 

 

Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 5,519
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

I expect covid to be around until the "it's all about me" crowd begins thinking about others, their impact on others, and the common good.  Just look at all the new outbreaks, people refusing to wear masks, and anti-science mentality for proof.

 

The price of the vaccine could be a problem for many if it's too expensive.  

 

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Respected Contributor
Posts: 2,326
Registered: ‎06-25-2014

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

yes, of course i have considered it.  i am not stressing or worrying about it, though.  i am assuming that, because of pressure, they will be forced to rush a product through just to be able to say they did it.  so, in considering this, my assumption is that life will remain as is (hopefully not worse!) for some time to come.