@pitdakota wrote:
@Isobel Archer wrote:
I'm still confused about how we managed to get through the Hong Kong flu that killed over 100,000 at a time when our population was less than 2/3 the size it is now (200 mil vs. 328 mil today). We even had Woodstock in the middle of it.
We didn't shut down and stop other people from getting medical care.
You know we have more than 38,000 people dying of auto accidents per year - and over 4.4 million injured seriously enough to require medical attention - many will never fully recover.
So what does that have to do with this? I'll tell you. If we reduced the speed limit - and strictly enforced it - signficantly, we could reduce the number and seriousness of injuries and certainly reduce deaths. We could limit speed on freeways to 30mph and in cities to 10 mph. Oh you say, that is ridiculous - and certainly way too inconvenient. What? You don't care about human life? You are selfishly wanting to get where you are going quickly?
Oh wait - you are now going to tell me that this would essentially shut us down and no one would really benefit.
Hello.
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@Isobel Archer, this is one of those things going around on Facebook, that is a great example of crazy stuff out there.
Really?
Is anyone aware that the Hong Kong flu pandemic occurred 2 flu seasons in a row? Something that many of these Facebook posts and those that are intent in trying to minimize the impact of covid-19 don't take the time to really understand facts about what they are parroting?
So those 100,000 deaths occurred from Sept 1968 to Jan-Feb 1970. Over a period of 16 months. The first case was identified in Sept 1968 with cases going on through the 1969-1970 winter season.Hong Kong flu were being transmitted out there in the population in the United States.
And as is typical with pandemics, the largest number of deaths occurred during the 2nd wave of the pandemic during the months of Nov 1969-Jan. 1970.
Woodstock took place in August of 1969 when there were no significant number of cases of influenza being actively transmitted since this is usually the way influenza acts. There is usually very little influenza activity during the months of June, July, and August. Cases start to pick up mid Sept, and then start really picking up in late Nov into Dec and fade away by March of the following year. We were in between 2 different flu seasons with H3N2 or Hong Kong flu getting ready to make a resurgence when Woodstock took place. Geez, I can think of all kinds of big activities that take place in this country every year in August in between flu seasons.
There are other biomedical reasons that epidemiologists would not have resorted trying to shut down the economy for the Hong Kong flu pandemic.
First is that the Hong Kong flu was the influenza protype H3N2. A previous pandemic of H2N2 had occurred in 1957. Notice that the neuraminidase of N2 is the same. So it was thought the population would have a little protection if infected. H3N2 in itself was a new influenza virus, but it had the same neuraminidase from the previous pandemic with people alive in 1968 that had contracted H2N2 and therefore some antibody activity geared toward the N2.
We also had a vaccine for H3N2 in addition to IV antibiotics to treat the seondary bacterial pneumonia that is typical in complicated clinical cases of influenza.
So now compare to covid-19. In just about 3 months we have over 82,000 deaths. If we compare that to the H3N2 pandemic, we still have 13 months more to go to compare the number of those deaths.
When this was coming....we had no vaccine, we had no treatment, it is a completely a novel virus with no humans having any type of immunity.
And comparing deaths related to motor vehicle accidents, heart attacks, cancer, drowning, accidental overdose just isn't comparable. Let alone trying to compare those deaths to those that occur to infectious diseases.
You might want to compare accidental deaths to each other to evaluate the biggest risk for various types of accidental deaths: motor vehicle, motorcycle, all terrain vehicles, drowning, electrocution, etc. Or compare deaths due to chronic diseases to each other: heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes, etc.
But it makes no sense to premise an argument on something in comparing deaths due to drowning to those of myocardial infarction. Deaths related to Covid-19 are due to a disease that is contagious.
As to numbers of deaths - we've already had confirmation that - first of all the vast majority of those who died from this current virus had serious underlying conditions. Italy is reporting over 90% of deaths of the virus were those who were otherwise seriously ill.
Second, we have also had confirmation that we are counting virus deaths in persons who have never been tested for the virus - but who had other serious conditions and perhaps some symptoms similar to virus symptoms - so voila - virus is cause of death.
Additionally in 68/69, we had only 2/3 of our current population - so to be comparable, we'd need at least 150,000 deaths - but again since this is so different from the HK Flu - which killed people who were not otherwise seriously ill of other causes, it's going to be very hard to every really compare.
Finally - as to auto deaths, - they are preventable - almost completely - if we reduce speed. But of course we are never going to do that. So my point was - OMG if we have to shut down the country and bankrupt people to "save lives" - and do so until we are completely sure that the virus won't be a threat - why don't we care enough about "saving lives" to do that in other situations - where clearly we could.
People who are drawing a salary or otherwise doing fine staying home would never ever agree to drive 10 miles an hour to "save someone's life." Yet they are fine with causing people to lose everything they have worked for, exposing children to domestic violence, and putting us as a nation at serious risk in terms of future financial debt - which may involve reliance on China - who has clearly shown they are a threat not an ally.
This is a very serious situation and has repercussions far beyond the virus itself.
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