@Laura14 wrote:
@Noel7 I believe the temperature records. I do not believe they are the cause of a lot of hurricanes in one year.
Think about it. If that was absolutely true, FL would be run over every year not just every 8-10.
I am not leaving my common sense at the door just because someone with a science degree says I should. PROVE IT and I'll jump on board. They won't do it in my lifetime.
The scientists can't because they don't have enough data over enough time to say with certainty why some years are more active with storms than others.
And never forget the other person's agenda. Scientists do nothing without grant money. They get a lot of it when people get whipped up on an idea that shows promise like global warming theories.
By the way, didn't the MIdwest have one of its coldest winters ever two years ago? I notice this conversation never comes up during harsh winters or less active storm seasons. And that's my point. No one really knows and a good scientist should be man or woman enough to say it.
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@Laura14
Predictive science is always harder and uncertain than science that takes a retrospective look at correlations. For example, I can look back at medical records of 100,000 patients that died due to a heart attack and probably identify a cadre of factors that correlate leading to death from a heart attack. Then one can identify risk factors from those studies. But it doesn't mean that every single person with those risk factors will die of a heart attack. But it does mean that those factors have a fairly high correleation coefficient to say there is a strong risk that if these factors are there then one is at risk of situation A occuring is substantially higher.
One common misconception about any global warming is that there will not be rough or brutal winters. Warmer ocean temps causes increased evaporation of ocean water. The temp of the evaportation actually causes the "air" to expand if you will due to heat and increased moisture. That in turn is then circulated via current air mass systems over the earth. When it circulates over a colder land mass it leads to more snow, etc...which chills the land mass further. Furthermore, moisture from that snow evaporates into circulation in that particular land mass and can result in more snow somewhere else. But the snow would not have occurred if it weren't for the moisture from ocean evaporation from thousands of miles away.
So increase ocean temps results in increased evaporation which increases moisture in the air leading to increased snowfall in some areas. Snow in and of itself will cause lower land temps, the snow evaporates, leading to more moisture aloft to be carried somewhere else. An expanded snow blanket in any area with cause lower air temps.
I can't remember the stats, but the vast majority of all rainfall that occurs is due to evaporation that takes place over an ocean or uptake from a significant rainfall somewhere else. So even when we have rain here in Ky. on a nice summer day....the moisture aloft is usually associated with ocean evaporation (in Ky. probably from the Gulf of Mexico) along with an air circulation that moves the system over the state.
I believe NOAA is doing quite a bit of work with developing a water vapor computer model to help "predict", but to also really research patterns of water vapor and other associated factors.
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