Wellness

[gardenman]

It pays to keep things in perspective. We're a country of around 320 million people in a world of 7.8 billion people and not even one million people worldwide have been infected. The last number I saw had 1800+ people confirmed as infected in the US. Eighteen hundred out of 320 million is a pretty insignificant number. Only about 140,000 people worldwide, out of 7.8 billion, are infected.

An infected person was at the recent CPAC meeting and potentially exposed thousands of attendees, but to the best of my knowledge, not one of those exposed has come down with the infection. 

The likelihood of you running into someone with the virus is very low (1800 infected out of 320 million Americans.) The likelihood of you catching the virus from them is again, very low. And even if you did, the likelihood of you dying from it is, once again, very low. Reportedly 3%, or so. 

As far as I know, every state in the country has a lottery with winners every day. I suspect the odds are greater of your winning the lottery than dying of coronavirus. Should you take simple precautions? Absolutely! Should you let this drive you a bit crazy? No. 

Viruses tend to mutate on a regular basis and it's entirely possible the coronavirus has already mutated into a less virulent form here that is harder to transmit and less fatal when caught than it was originally. Iran may have a more virulent form along with Italy, but from what we're seeing here, the version circulating here seems less aggressive so far. 

When you look at the population density in places like India, China, and other parts of the world, the virus should be decimating those populations if it was easily spread. Maybe it is, but just not being reported, but my suspicion is that this is not nearly as dangerous as many would like us to believe. The total deaths worldwide so far are reported to be a bit over 5,000. Remember that's out of 7.8 billion people. 

[dex]

@gardenman @Thank you.I feel so much more relaxed after reading your post.I think you should put that out there for the media to report.

[gardenman]

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@dex wrote:

@gardenman @Thank you.I feel so much more relaxed after reading your post.I think you should put that out there for the media to report.

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As a hemophiliac, I have far too much experience in dealing with deadly viruses. The relatively short incubation period (two weeks as opposed to as long as fourteen years or more for HIV and decades for hepatitis C) makes it easier to contain coronavirus. The relatively low mortality rate (around 3% versus what was 100% for HIV in the early days) makes it far more likely you'll live through it if exposed and infected. As "We're all going to die!" scenarios go, this isn't all that bad. I've been through much, much worse.

Should you be cautious? Absolutely. Should you panic? Absolutely not. We've seen worse in some flu seasons and other infectious outbreaks. Coronavirus isn't something you want, but the numbers that are out there, assuming they're reasonably accurate, make it unlikely you'll get it, or die from it. 

[patbz]

@gardenman :  I'm definitely not in panic mode but it is predicted that as many as 50% of Americans will eventually catch this virus (and for most of us, it'll be over and gone within one month).  The real issue is economics and the impact to our food chain.

[AuntG]

@hckynut , @RedTop  and @gardenman . Just wanted to say I read your comments on many different topics. You are the voice of intelligence and reason. I'm the first to admit that I can be a little ditsy in crisis situations, and there is so much I've never really thought about. Keep posting because you guys put things in the proper perspective.

[dex]

@gardenman @I am spreading your message to everyone I know.I don't know who you are but you make so much sense out of the panic that is being spread around this country.I really thank you for taking the time that you did to sort out the facts.

[proudlyfromNJ]

We should be out and about and living our lives. We are. 

[gardenman]

When you look at a place like Mumbai, India where there are reportedly 18+ million people living within 232 square miles, the rate of infection should be very high if it was as contagious as many fear. (If you do that math that's 77,000 people per square mile.) According to the World Health Organization, there are fewer than 150,000 cases worldwide over the four months the virus has been around. Mumbai should be getting that many cases each day if it was as contagious as many fear. 

Maybe the true scope of the problem is being hidden from us, but the numbers we're seeing, even if you double or triple them, don't add up to a huge threat. This is a big world with a whole lot of people in it. (7.8 billion is what's reported.) For a virus to be around for four months and infect less than 150,000 of them is a bit unusual. I would expect the number to be vastly higher. 

We've seen far worse viruses in terms of spread. The typical flu virus spreads much more quickly. I think we'll find this is being vastly over-reported as a threat and creating panic among many people who have no need to panic. The numbers just don't add up to this being all that bad if they're even remotely close to being accurate. Taking normal precautions is wise, but unless a whole lot of people worldwide are lying to us, this isn't all that bad of a situation when you look at the real-world numbers.

Even if you double or triple the numbers we're being given, things don't look all that bad. I keep thinking there must be something I'm missing, but when you look at the numbers and use common sense, this isn't all that bad of a situation. An infection like coronavirus that was as easily transmitted as people like you to think it is, should be giving us vastly higher numbers than we're seeing. Either they're lying about the numbers or the ease of spreading it and right now I think the lies are about the ease of spreading it. That's what the numbers certainly seem to indicate.

[gardenman]

Let's assume that each infected person infects one other person each day. So day one, one person is infected. Day two the number increases to two. Day three the two people infected each infect someone and the number of infected people increases to four. On day 4 each of those four infect someone and the number is now eight. As this goes on the number increases rather dramatically until day 35 when the total number of infected people is 8,589,934,592. More than the world's population of 7.8 billion. We're now at day 120 (give or take a bit) and the total number of infected people is less than 150,000. If each infected person was infecting just one other person each day we'd have reached the 150,000 mark somewhere between day 18-19 not day 120.

The math just doesn't add up to this being a huge problem for the country or the world. Take precautions, wash your hands, stay hydrated and well-nourished, and you should be fine. The level of nervousness we're seeing just doesn't fit the numbers we're getting. 

[goldensrbest]

I think this virus should make us all aware just how ill prepared our country is.