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[gardenman]

Well, Jackson may have flipped Nicole and Cliff into keeping Holly and voting out Tommy. It's all still a bit up in the air, but it kind of looks that way now. Jackson was watching on the HOH TV when Tommy, Cliff, and Nicole headed to the Have-Not room for a conversation. He put on his socks and tiptoed to the door to eavesdrop. There he heard Tommy vowing to throw them the HOH comp and then fight like mad to evict Jackson in the POV comp, so the final three would be Tommy, Cliff, and Nicole.

Jackson then used his intel later to turn Cliff and Nicole away from Tommy, by telling them the deal that Tommy had offered him and his vow to work with him if Holly was gone. Nicole wanted to call a house meeting to clear things up, but they've put it off until morning. (It may not happen at all.) They know that either Tommy or Jackson, possibly both are lying and she's trying to figure out what's best for her game. She really wants Holly gone, but if Tommy will hook up with Jackson when Holly goes, then Tommy/Jackson are more dangerous than Holly/Jackson.

We'll have to see what happens when the votes are cast tonight. It's possible Cliff could opt to keep Holly against Nicole's wishes and vote out Tommy leaving Jackson with the tie-breaker vote to evict Tommy.

From a game, strategic, and tactical standpoint, I think evicting Tommy is the smarter move. Tommy owns the jury. If you're against him in the jury, you're very likely to lose. I don't see any of the four beating Tommy in the jury. If you can't beat him, flush him. Holly has not been super-competitive lately. I'd take my chances on beating her over Tommy in a comp.

We'll find out what happens starting tonight live at 9:00 PM ET. Until then things are apt to flip back and forth a time or twenty. It should be a good show tonight. 

[mimomof4]

Didn't Tommy reveal his relationship with Christy to Cliff and Nicole??

Didn't Nicole suspect that there was some type of relationship there a couple weeks ago?  Did some light bulb go off in her head when she heard about the previous relationship?  I don't watch the LF.

I've questioned Nicoles decisions quite a few times this season.  I would hope she would be smart enough to realize that if Tommy already had a previous relationship with Christy he has at least 1 locked vote.  Tommy didn't even go on the block until DE night so he obviously has great relationships with everyone.  It wold be hard to win a vote against him.

On one hand yes I think it would be a good move to seprate Jackson and Holly but if you are really looking to the end - getting rid of Tommy may be the best move.

[gardenman]

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@mimomof4 wrote:

Didn't Tommy reveal his relationship with Christy to Cliff and Nicole??

Didn't Nicole suspect that there was some type of relationship there a couple weeks ago?  Did some light bulb go off in her head when she heard about the previous relationship?  I don't watch the LF.

I've questioned Nicoles decisions quite a few times this season.  I would hope she would be smart enough to realize that if Tommy already had a previous relationship with Christy he has at least 1 locked vote.  Tommy didn't even go on the block until DE night so he obviously has great relationships with everyone.  It wold be hard to win a vote against him.

On one hand yes I think it would be a good move to seprate Jackson and Holly but if you are really looking to the end - getting rid of Tommy may be the best move.

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Yeah, Tommy finally came clean to Cliff and Nicole, but Nicole and Cliff had been in the yard a few weeks ago when the bullhorn guy had shouted that Tommy and Christe knew one another. They block the feeds whenever Cliff and Nicole talk about that, but they knew, or strongly suspected the two knew one another for some time now.

I think the thing that flipped the vote is the fear that Tommy and Jackson have a side deal. Something that Jackson is encouraging to try and keep Holly in the game. 

I always think you want to look at "Who can beat me" in BB when it comes to who to evict. Now that includes both in the house and in the jury. Cliff and Nicole have both beaten Holly in the last few competitions. Tommy came in second in BB Comics. Holly was dead last, by a large margin. I think if push comes to shove, Cliff and Nicole can beat Holly, both in comps and in the jury. Why vote out someone you can beat? Can they beat Tommy? Maybe not in comps and almost certainly not in the jury. So, why keep him? They can't vote out Jackson just yet, but if they can win POV they could.

Worst case scenario for Cliff and Nicole is they lose the POV and one of them goes. Would the survivor rather be up against Jackson and Holly, or Jackson and Tommy? I still think Holly is easier to beat. I think Tommy knows he'd beat Jackson, Holly, Cliff or Nicole, so he won't care who takes him or who he takes to the final two.

Nicole tends to look at the best-case scenario where they save Tommy, Tommy wins POV, evicts Jackson, then it's a Tommy, Nicole, Cliff final three. But can they then beat Tommy? They'd have to in order to win.

I'd want Tommy out if I was in the house, but there are good arguments going both ways. If I was Cliff or Nicole, my ideal final three would be Cliff, Nicole, and Holly. You can't get that though if you vote out Holly. We'll see what happens tonight. Whatever happens, there will be tons of second-guessing going on. 

[SusieQ_2]

I was totally against the idea of keeping Holly but after giving it more thougt I'm starting to understand Cliff & Nicole's thought process. They have two choices.

The first is to evict Tommy which leaves a F4 of Cliff & Nicole vs Jackson & Holly. Jackson can't play in the next hoh which means it would be 2 vs 1. However, if Holly wins, she will put up both Nicole and Cliff on the block. Next comes the veto comp and whoever wins veto will become the one vote that decides who is evicted. If Nicole & Cliff lose the veto comp to Holly or Jackson one of them will 100% be voted out. Leaving Holly in the game means there is no way Cliff and Nicole can get to F3 unless they win the veto. Losing it means one of them leaves in 4th place.

The second choice is to evict Holly which leaves the F4 as a threesome of Cliff, Nicole, and Tommy vs Jackson. Tommy has agreed to throw the hoh which means Cliff or Nicole would nominate Tommy and Jackson for eviction. Again, the veto win is imperative, but now it's 3 vs 1. Tommy has said he would gun for the veto and if he wins he will vote to evict Jackson. Nicole & Cliff would do the same. This scenario means that Jackson has to win the veto to stay in the game.

The problem is how naive Cliff and Nicole are about the jury votes. During a conversation in the bathroom they said Holly brought this up--that Tommy has a lot of friends in jury but they just don't buy it. Nicole brought up that Tommy voted out Jack, Sis, Nick, etc. so why would they be loyal to Tommy? Is she forgetting that she and Cliff also voted those same people out?
I will say juries are funny in that you never know what they're going to do or what they will value and reward. And, a lot has to do with how the final comps play out and who proves him/herself as a competitor.

They're also looking down the road to the F3 where if one of them are left in the game with Jackson & Holly the showmance will choose each other every time for F2. If it was Tommy, Jackson, and either Nicole or Cliff, however, she or Cliff would have a better chance of being taken to the end.

To get to F3 they have to survive F4 and they think there's a better chance of getting there with Tommy than with Jackson and Holly. Also, at F3 they're guaranteed to have their family in the audience which is something they're hoping for. But they also have to think about the finale.

Regardless of which way they go there are going to be a lot of people saying I told you so. If they keep Holly and she wins veto people will say they should have kept Tommy. If they keep Tommy and he wins in the end it will be they should have kept Holly. This decision is the hardest one they've had to make so far this season. I don't envy them today.

[SusieQ_2]

Today is going to bring some major fireworks to the feeds. Jackson's story about Tommy should have some major repercussions and should Nicole decide she wants to call a house meeting to flush out the truth all hell will break loose. One thing's for sure...this should cause a major rift between Jackson and Tommy and the chance that they might work together, in any way, is almost nil. 

The problem for Cliff, or maybe not a problem since he was leaning toward wanting to evict Tommy, is that he believes Jackson. He doesn't know Jackson was eavesdropping so when he dropped the bomb "Did Tommy say he would throw the hoh, etc?" the information he had was too specific to be a guess. Cliff feels Tommy had to have at least approached Jackson to tell him he was going to make an offer to Cliff and Nicole and now Cliff doubts Tommy. 

It's a problem for Nicole as well because now she feels like she was played by Tommy and she's hurt/furious. It was all she could do not to call a house meeting last night. Instead she decided to sleep on it, cool down, and revisit it today.

The problem for Tommy is he just, that very same day, revealed that he had been lying to them for the entire season. They're amazed that Tommy put on such a good show but, after all, he is an actor. Now he is going to have to try to convince Nicole & Cliff that he's telling the truth this time. It's kind of a boy who cried wolf situtation. I can hear Jackson now "So you were lying all season but now you're telling the truth." Not good for Tommy.

For Jackson the situation is a dichotomy. On one hand he's thrilled because he can say not to believe Tommy, after all, he's a known liar. On the other hand, should Cliff and Nicole keep Tommy and Tommy wins veto, Jackson has blown up any bridge he had with Tommy not only in the house but probably with jury votes.

One other repercussion this could have is with the jury. If Tommy is voted out because of Jackson's lie he will surely take this information to the jury. Will they respect the gameplay or will they be appalled by it? On the other hand, if Tommy stays and Jackson and Holly end up in jury will they vote for Tommy out of guilt for what they tried to do? 

So many questions but one thing's for sure...today's feeds should be explosive! They will be getting ready for the live show tonight but hopefully we won't miss it all and be watching swimming fishies instead. 

[Pantsonfire2]

Last night was irritating ...  Michie and Holly would NOT leave Cliff and Nicole alone ...  followed them room to room with all this pious talk about “my word is my bond” ...  “we shook on the final four” blah blah blah ...  then the lying started about Tommy wherein Michie and Holly agreed they will do anything to win at this point ...  never liked Michie, but now not a fan of Holly either.  Hard to walk away from the feeds ...  things change soooo quickly ...  it was 4:30 a.m. and they were still at it ...  I’m sure they’re tired today ...  I know I am ...

[Keybra]

Didn't you say all this in a much more concise way @gardenman  

@tucka  I think you were absolutely right about Nichole playing the helpless , needy one.

[Pantsonfire2]

I’m tired of Cliff talking to no one ...  just play the game Cliff ...  this is not a documentary 

[gardenman]

Cliff and Nicole are talking to Tommy now. We've reached a point where everyone's lying. Tommy's swearing Jackson's a bigger threat and that what Jackson told them was a big fat lie. Nicole seems to really want to believe Tommy. His lying to them all season makes it a bit hard to believe him now.

[SusieQ_2]

And Holly is eavesdropping at the RV door. Things are about to get heated, lol.