TV and Movies

[gardenman]

Note to Big Brother: You might want to keep Holly away from the alcohol for a bit. The stress of possibly seeing the block and being evicted, along with a bit too much alcohol, has largely turned her into a raving lunatic. Last night Cliff suggested to Jackson that he should go on The Challenge next year and that was all it took to set her off. Holly immediately decided he'd then find a girl there, marry her and live happily ever after leaving Holly behind, and by God, she wasn't having that. Cliff later mentioned he and his wife went to watch a casting call for the Bachelorette and that had her melting down again as Jackson had been cast for a previous season of the Bachelorette before getting cut at the very end. This was before Holly even knew him. Suffice to say Drunk Holly is not a fun person to be around. She does make for interesting feeds though. Jackson didn't help matters by constantly reminding her of the times she's supposedly wronged him. Suffice to say these two are not Jeff and Jordan. The fight went on for about six hours or so.

Assuming Holly isn't too hungover today, which may be assuming a lot, we'll have the POV meeting today where Nicole will use her POV to save Cliff, and Holly will stagger over to the nomination chair to take his place. At this moment it looks like their plan to keep Tommy and dump Holly is secondary, but could reappear again. Nicole likes the idea of dumping Holly, but Cliff is looking at jury votes and thinks Holly or Jackson would be easier to beat in the jury. If you end up against Tommy in the jury, you'd likely be in trouble. However, sending him to the jury might just help your cause. Holly has limited appeal to the jury. Jackson's not exactly loved by the jury. He's played a good strategic game and his social game isn't horrible, but he's sent a whole lot of jurors to the jury.

So, this whole week will be consumed with the "What will Cliff and Nicole do speculation." There are pros and cons to each option. There's no one clear answer. You can't be absolutely sure that Tommy wouldn't hook up with Jackson, with whom he's been aligned much of the season, to target Nicole and Cliff if you kept Tommy. Jackson could make a good argument that no one would beat Cliff and Nicole in the jury vote and lure in Tommy to take them out. I think Holly is easier to beat in most comps than Tommy, so I'd be more inclined to keep her and give Tommy the boot. But there are dangers there also. There is no absolute, this is the best option, available.

So, the POV will be used today to save Cliff. Holly will go up to take his place. And speculation will be rampant on who Cliff and Nicole should vote out. The pros of keeping Tommy are he might work with you and then it's the three of you against Jackson. the cons are he might work against you and then it's him and Jackson against you. The cons of keeping Tommy are he'd likely win the jury vote if he got to the end. Holly is less likely to be a sure winner if she got to the end. There is no perfect answer. I think I'd take my chances on keeping Holly. Her emotional state right now is a tad unstable and that could work to your advantage. If the final three were Holly, Cliff, and Jackson, Cliff might be able to convince Jackson to keep him over Holly as the girls (led by Jess, Christie, Analyse, and Kat) would vote for Holly over Jackson. Nicole could be the fifth vote the girls would need to give Holly the win. (Bear in mind Jackson knows Holly and Kat knew each other too.)

I suspect we won't know for sure how the vote will go until Thursday's show. It's apt to flip back and forth a few dozen times between now and then. What we do know is that Tommy and Holly will be on the block by the end of the day.

[Pantsonfire2]

I did watch late last night ...  I watched until Jackson began  his assessment of how wonderful he is and his arrogance was shining a bright light on how he perceived this season of Big Brother and his exemplary performance during each competition.  Yes he has been a fabulous competitor but don’t ruin it with your adoring attitude about yourself and overkill in the drama department when he knows the cameras are on him ...  fine line there giving examples of how you played the game and how fabulous you are and the reasons why I am Adonis !!  

[gardenman]

The POV meeting is done and Cliff is down, while Holly is now on the block. (And none too happy about it.)

[SusieQ_2]

@gardenman, I totally concur with keeping Holly and alcohol as far apart as possible. She's insecure and needy enough when sober but once she's had a few drinks she's relentless. She swears at him, calls him childish names, he says that's not okay, she calls him condescending--her old reliable phrase when she realizes she's being a fool (or does she?). Oh, and let's not forget she's had bad past relationships that have left her with PTSD and, of course, the old standby "It's my time of the month and I'm hormonal." I really can't see them lasting after the finale and that's if they make it that long. I think Jackson is just holding on for the sake of the game. 

As to who is the better person to evict this week I'm not sure there's been a more highly debated question this season. There are pros and cons to both sides so it's a really tough decision. I do think Cliff will go with whatever Nicole wants to do. He's already told her it's her veto and he will respect her decision.

I think what's good for Nicole is not necessarily what's good for Cliff and even if both C & N make it to F2 I think she has a very good chance of winning. I also think Cliff would be thrilled if that happened. They've been a great duo this season.

I just re-read your update, G'man, and have the same concern that Tommy could promise Nicole one thing and then decide to team up with Jax. Honestly, though, I think if Tommy swore to Nicole he would stick to his word but there's no guarantee. I think one reason Nicole is so gung ho on evicting Holly is she wants it on her résumé that she broke up two power couples--Christie & Tommy and Holly and Jackson. It would be a nice thing to spice up her speech on finale night should she get that far. 

[gardenman]

@SusieQ_2 

The big question is: Can anyone beat Tommy in the jury? You've got to figure Christie will vote for him. Nick, Jess, Jack, Analyse would also be leaning that way. That's five votes in a nine person jury. That's all he needs. Do any of the others have five more or less sure votes? Probably not. So, do you keep Tommy and risk losing to him in the jury, or dump him while you can? In either case you have to beat Jackson in the POV comp. Tommy's a better competitor than Holly, so do you try to weaponize him against Jackson, or hope to beat both Jackson and Holly? I think I would get rid of Tommy. I'm just not sure I could trust him not to flip to Jackson. His friends in the jury would scare me too much. Nicole can still split up the other power couple by winning the POV if she flushes Tommy, if she wants that on her resume.

There really is no "right" answer. You just have to follow your gut. My gut says get rid of Tommy. If Nicole ends up against Jackson or Holly in the final two, she might win. If she ends up against Tommy, probably not. Jackson has burned a lot of bridges. I'm not sure his former allies would give him the win. The same with Holly. I'd take my chances with those two and flush Tommy. We've seen showmances dump their partner at two in the past (Drew dumped Diane to take Cowboy to the final two in season five.) Would Jackson or Holly do that? Maybe if they thought it would help them win. 

[CLHS68]

@gardenman Do you think Jessica would vote for Tommy if either of the girls were left? I thought she wanted a girl to win. Either way I think it may be best to vote out Tommy this week.

[SusieQ_2]

@gardenman 

I think you're right about Tommy being able to win the jury if he's up against Nicole. I'm not even sure finding out about his relationship with Christie would sway them--probably not at this point. I think Nicole could win easily against Holly but Jax is another story. He's a comp beast and smart, but the one thing I think that could go against him is if he gets too cocky in his speech and it turns them off. Nicole is so likable and sweet she could easily endear herself to them on finale night.

I hadn't even thought about Nicole being able to split up H&J by winning veto but I like it! I've mentioned before I'm not much of a strategist, I just don't think that far ahead, but again, I like it. It's a gamble though hoping for another veto win against Jax. He's good at both mental and physical but Nicole has been proving herself as well. 

I'm with you in thinking Tommy's the one who should go but I feel like Nicole is really leaning toward Holly. Cliff will have his work cut out for him if he really wants to convince her otherwise. 

Oh, last thought...I don't think Jax would be so apt to cut Holly. She should be easy to beat. If it turned out Holly could benefit by cutting Jax I'm not sure she would. If she thinks there's even a slight chance for a relationship outside the house she would likely take a bullet for him. The whole thing is very odd.

[gardenman]

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@CLHS68 wrote:

@gardenman Do you think Jessica would vote for Tommy if either of the girls were left? I thought she wanted a girl to win. Either way I think it may be best to vote out Tommy this week.

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Jessica loved Tommy and I'm not sure she wouldn't consider him an honorary girl for lack of a better phrase. I think she'd vote for Tommy over Holly or Jackson. Cliff and Nicole would be trickier. She might favor them over Tommy, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

[gardenman]

@SusieQ_2 

Yeah, even if they flush Tommy this week, Nicole would still have a chance to split up Holly and Jackson if she won the POV. She could still add that to her resume. I think everyone in the house loses to Tommy now. If you flush Tommy, the win is more up for grabs. I don't see Holly winning against anyone right now, unless Jess really pushes the girl winning angle against Cliff or Jackson.

Cliff, Nicole, and Jackson can all make good arguments for the win. Cliff was banished day one and fought back in. Cliff was evicted and fought back in. He's won enough and had a great social game. Nicole has had a good social game and won a lot lately. Jackson's won more, but his social game isn't ideal. Those three are kind of a toss-up to me. To me, there's one guy you can't beat, one person who can't beat you, and both are on the block. That kind of makes flushing Tommy make some sense. I just don't see Holly winning, so why get rid of her?

[SusieQ_2]

@gardenman, Wish there was a way for you to get that message to Nicole! 

Speaking of what Jess would do I wonder if she's likely to do whatever Christie tells her to do. Remember when Christie told Jess she wanted her to stay in the house over Cliff and Jess said "I've been waiting for you all season Christie!" It was so cringey. 

I don't know if I've mentioned this story before but it's from when Christie was on the block after losing America's Field Trip comp. She was laying next to Jess, crying her eyes out and talking 100 mph as she always did, and Jess wasn't responding--like at all. Eventually Christie looked at her and said "Jess are you listening to me?" This was her reply ~

"This is what I do. I pretend to be listening and I might be, or I might be thinking about unicorns or horses with squirrel heads." All with a totally straight face, not even a crack of a smile.

Christie says, "What? I'm trying to tell you something" to which Jess replies "Well, Christie, if you had included me in even one of your 187 alliances you might not be in this position now." 

Normally I couldn't watch Jess for more than a few minutes at a time but that night she was pure gold. I still laugh thinking about it. 

Nicole and Cliff talking about the conundrum right now. Nicole says even if Tommy stays and goes with Jax it's still 2 against 2. Cliff says I'd rather the 2 be Jax and Holly than Jax and Tommy but he's being very acquiescent to Nicole's idea. So far no talk about jury votes that I know of. C'mon Cliff, think JURY VOTES!!!