And it's time for the picks!!! God only knows if any of these will be correct, but they're my best guess on how things will play out week one.
We start out with the Chiefs at the Patriots. If the Patriots are going to lose any games this year, the early part of the season is where they'll be the most vulnerable. They've been shuffling quite a few parts in the defensive backfield and also at wide receiver, and early season communication might be off a bit. That could give teams a chance against the Patriots in the early season. I'm not sure Belichick wouldn't mind a loss (or at least a big scare) early on to help focus the team. Pretty much everyone knows the Patriots are the best overall team in the NFL this year, but they have to still play the games. No one will just roll over and let them win. (Well, other than maybe the Jets.) I like the Chiefs and Andy will typically have his team ready to play when he's got extra time to prepare, but I'm picking the Patriots to win this week. The Chiefs might just give them a fight, but I don't think they'll pull off the upset.
The Jets take on the Bills in a fight to see who will have the best chance at that first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Both teams seem determined to get that first overall pick and throw away this season. The Bills have traded away multiple good players for future draft picks and have a new head coach in Sean McDermott. The Jets, well, they're the Jets. This is a coin flip game. I don't think the fans of either team are overly optimistic right now and with good reason. I'll take the Bills simply because I think they're more determined to move up in the draft than tank completely.
The Eagles go to the Redskins. The Eagles have been horrible against the Redskins in recent years with Kirk Cousins and DeSean Jackson routinely spanking them. I think that ends this year. The Alshon Jeffery/Josh Norman battle looks to be fun to watch.The routes that Alshon Jeffery is best at running are the routes that Josh Norman is worse at defenidng. Torrey Smith is also showing he still has the speed to beat defenses deep. With legitimate deep threats stretching the field, the underneath area opens up for Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles. The Redskin defense can't cheat the safeties up to stop the running game, which the Eagles have improved by adding a few more maulers to the offensive line. That Eagles defense is looking vastly improved this year. The defensive line is going to get after Kirk Cousins on a routine basis and the new corners on the Eagles are a vastly better group than what took the field last year. I've got the Eagles winning this one. The Redskins had a ton of change this past year, two new coordinators, losing a bunch of players, and the uncertainty over Cousins. I just think things are working in the Eagles favor here week one.
The Raiders go to the Titans. This could be a good game. Both teams should be pretty good. I'm not convinced that Marcus Mariota has made a big step up from where he was last year, but David Carr looks like the real deal. West coast teams coming east typically have a hard time, but I'll take the Raiders in this one. It should be a good game however.
The Bucs go to the Dolphins. I think Tampa is ready to take a step up this year. The Dolphins are a wildcard with Jay Cutler as their QB. He can look great for 90% of the game then do something bone-headed. I'll take Tampa and assume Cutler will do something bone-headed to throw away the game.
The Jaguars go to the Texans. The Jags are a great team without a quarterback and unfortunately you kind of need a quarterback. I'm not sure the Texans have the right quarterback, but at least they've got a quarterback. Controlling JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney will be a challenge for most teams. I think the Texans take this one pretty easily.
The Cards go to the Lions. The Cards looked better this preseason than they did last year, but I think they've gotten too old to be all that competitive. I'll take the Lions. The Cards will soon realize how much they miss Calais Campbell.
The Falcons go to Chicago. The Falcons will likely have a hangover from that Super Bowl loss, but they open up against a less competitive team in the Bears. I'll take the Falcons.
The Ravens go to the Bengals. The Ravens have been hit hard by the injury bug this year. Flacco just now is back practicing. I don't see this being a good year for the Ravens. I'll take the Bengals.
The Steelers go to the Browns. The Browns should be a lot better this year. Are they good enough to beat the Steelers? Probably not. I'll take the Steelers.
The Colts go to the Rams. I just don't know where the Colt's players' mindset is this year. The Colts looked into trading for Sean Payton to be their new head coach and when the new GM came in he more or less said it was too late to change head coaches, so there's not a lot of support for Pagano high up in the organization. Do the players rally around Pagano and play hard for him, or do they back off and try to protect themselves? There have been whispers that Andrew Luck's biggest issue now is mental after his shoulder surgery, and that implies that he's looking to protect himself rather than fight for the coach. I'll take the Rams in this game until I know what the Colts are doing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pagano get fired before the season is done. The Rams have tried to support Goff and add some pieces for him, so we'll see how that plays out.
The Seahawks go to the Packers in a big early season game. This should be a fun one. Russell Wilson was dinged most of last year, but seems to be healthy again. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. I would expect this to be a fairly high scoring game with a pair of gunslingers trading blows. I'll take Green Bay simply because they're the home team and playing on grass instead of the faster turf Seattle prefers. Seattle's not typically as good on the road as they are at home.
The Panthers go to San Francisco to take on the Niners. Cam Newton is the wild card in this game. Is his shoulder healthy? Can he play the whole game? Can he play the whole season? The Panthers are the better team, but if Cam isn't 'ready' they could struggle a bit. I'll still take the Panthers in this one however.
The Giants go to the Cowboys. These are two teams with opposite issues. The Giants have no idea if they can protect Eli Manning or create running lanes for their running backs, but they have a dominant defense that can shut down pretty much anyone. The Cowboys on the other hand have a dominant offensive line that can protect Dak and open up running lanes, but their defense is a major work in progress. They have essentially no pass rush, and a defensive backfield that's been patched together with odds and ends they found lying around. The lack of a pass rush by Dallas helps to offset the Giants inability to protect Eli Manning. Those Giant receivers (O'dell Beckham Junior, et al) going against that largely untested Cowboy secondary is a mismatch if Eli is given any time in the pocket. I can see the Giants scoring a lot of points in this game. Can the Cowboys match them? I don't know, but I have my doubts. I think the Cowboys will try to play the ball control game and run the ball a ton to keep Eli and his receivers off the field. I see the Giants scoring at least 28 points in this game and I'm not sure the Cowboys can score 28 against that Giant defense. I'm taking the Giants in a close one.
The Saints go to the Vikings. I think the Saints are going to have a very bad year. They put a "For Sale" sign on Sean Payton this past offseason and tried to trade him to the Niners, Rams and Colts. Drew Brees is getting up there a bit in years. They traded away one of his best weapons in Brandin Cooks. Those aren't the kind of moves that inspire confidence in a team. Now, you can never rule out a Drew Brees quarterbacked team, but I'll take the Vikings in this one.
And finally we end up with the LA Chargers at the Broncos. I like Joey Bosa and the Chargers in this one. That Bronco QB situation is not ideal.
I'm taking a whole lot of road teams this week. Probably more than I should be taking. We'll see what happens though. These first few weeks are a guessing game as much as anything. Teams that are expected to be good sometimes come out flat. Teams that no one expects much from come out playing like their hair is on fire. You just never know how the games will play out.
Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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