Sports

[emmygrace]

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@gardenman wrote:

@Spurt 

Zeke's big issue is use. He's the kind of a back who wears down a defense.  You pound him, pound him, and pound him at the defense and wear them down. Since signing him to the six year $90 million extension the Cowboys have tried to preserve him for the length of the contract and held back on using hiim. He's on pace for just 280 carries this year which would be by far the lowest of his career. In 2017 had had just 242 but that was in just ten games. Even then he averaged over 24 carries a game.

Backs like him have a limited lifespan. You might get 2,000 carries from a guy like him before he's done. Earl Campbell had 2187 carries. Herschel Walker had 1,954 carries. Zeke is a pounder as a back and not a shifty guy who avoids contact. Walter Payton had over 3,000 carries in his career but he was shiftier than Elliott. Zeke has over 1,200 carries already and six full years left on his contract which ends at the end of the 2016 season If the Cowboys pound him 300+ times per season for six years they're putting 1,800+ more carries on him which is around a thousand more than Herschel Walker or Earl Campbell were able to sustain.

Ezekiel Elliott's problem is use. He needs to have that ball in his hands a lot to wear down a defense and the Cowboys are scared to use him up too soon and have to eat too much of his contract. A six year $90 million deal was just crazy. By committing to him for that long they have to throttle him back in terms of use and that takes away what he does best.

The Wentz/Haskins comparison is pretty accurate. Carson's gotten off to a bad start this year, but he's been surrounded by a bad mix of inexperienced kids. We went from one of the oldest most experienced offensive lines to one of the youngest, least experienced offensive lines. There's been no continuity. (I think this week may be the first time all year the same five o-lineman have started twice. Bear in mind three of them played in their first real starting role this season.)

Then look at his receivers. Dallas Goedert, one of his go-to tight ends, got hurt. Alshon is still not back. DeSean has barely seen the field. Jalen Reagor got off to a hot start then tore a thumb ligament. His most reliable receiver is Greg Ward the converted QB from Houston. Zach Ertz is getting double and in some cases triple-teamed taking away his favorite target. Between running for his life as the o-line has a hiccup or two, and waiting for receivers who never get open to get open, Wentz has gotten off to a bad start. The good news is we know how good Wentz can be. He's showing some signs of life also. He's starting to trust the kid receivers.

That touchdown pass to Fulgham against the Niners last week is a good example of it. At the time he let the ball go, Fulgham was not in a good position. He was trailing the defender who had him covered tightly. Wentz trusted him to beat the defender and Fulgham did. Wentz's pass literally hit Fulgham in the hands and it's a good thing it did. There's a great photo of Fulgham looking up for the ball as it hit him in the hands. He never saw the ball. It was just there in his hands and he bobbled it for a blink then held on and rolled into the endzone. On a critical fourth and four Wentz hit rookie John Hightower for the completion to get the first down and keep the drive alive.

A couple of Carson's interceptions were on tipped passes which I don't blame the QB for. Three were on passes where the ball should have gone over the outside shoulder of the receiver but were over the inside shoulder instead. Was that because Wentz was inaccurate or did the reciever end up in the wrong spot? I don't know. People blame Wentz, but if the receiver drifted outside the throw goes from being an outside shoulder throw to an inside shoulder throw.

The key for receivers in the West Coast style offense is to be where the QB expects you to be when the QB expects you to be there. If you drift too far outside a front shoulder throw becomes a back shoulder throw. If you cut a route off too short the pass gets overthrown. If you go too deep the ball is underthrown. The QB is throwing to a spot and a time and the receiver's job is to be there. With a big group of inexperienced kid receivers, Wentz is having to do a bit of adjusting. Will a kid be where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there? Who knows? It's made for an interesting season for Carson. He is looking better though. That Niners game was a big step forward for the offense. If they can build on that with a good game against the Steelers, then things may be on the upswing.

Back to the WFT. Alex Smith is their best QB, but Haskins has the most upside. Balancing winning now and building a foundation going forward is always a challlenge for a team. If you polled the WFT players they'd probably be pretty much unanimous in that Smith is their best QB and Haskins has the most potential. Kyle Allen is neither their best QB nor the guy with the most upside which is why starting him now is probably not ideal. I'd stick with Haskins as long as he isn't doubting himself. Of course, I'd have either not changed the coaching staffs or would have done it before I drafted Haskins if I had any doubt about the old staff.

You need stability around a kid QB. You don't just plug and play a QB. You have to build them. Each time you change the staff or system a kid QB is in, you essentially tear them down and start the building process all over again. Each time you tear them down you damage the pieces that you may need to reuse.

If you're looking to use a first round pick on a kid QB, you want your head coach, offensive coordinator, and QB coach locked in for the first three years of the kid's time with the organization. Both the WFT and Giants have broken their kid QBs, possibly beyond repair, by swapping out their coaches and systems after their first year. Jason Garrett may be able to repair Daniel Jones. Garrett's something of a QB whisperer, but we won't know for a bit.

We'll have to see what happens with Haskins, but I'm not wildly optimistic. By benching him now, the WFT are saying they don't believe in him. It's not a great message to send to the kid. "We trust this undrafted guy who couldn't hold a starting job, or even the backup job eslewhere, and a one-legged old guy more than you," is what Haskins is hearing even if that's not what the WFT is intending to say. A whole lot of football gets played between the earholes and right now the space between Haskins' earholes is more than a bit scrambled. Getting it unscrambled, if it can be, is going to be a challenge.

Andy Reid may be the best coach in football at optimizing a QB. He's genius at it. In his time in Philly he got good to great performance from McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, Mike Vick, Nick Foles, and even Koy Detmer. When he went to KC he rode Alex Smith to the playoffs before swapping him out with Mahomes. Nick Foles was solid as a backup for him in KC also. How does one head coach never have a bad QB situation in 21 years as a head coach? Every QB he's ever put on the field has played well for him, and he's used a lot of them. They've typically bombed elsewhere, but played great for Andy. Andy knows how to build a QB. Lots of other teams don't. Building a QB isn't easy. Can the WFT rebuild Haskins? We'll find out. I'm not wildly optimistic though.

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KC loves AndyReid!!!!!!

[gardenman]

The Giants had the Cowboys on the rope then their left tackle just completely whiffed on Demarcus Lawrence and forced the fumble that the Cowboys returned for a TD. Ugh! The game is still inreach, but the Giants need to be smarter.

[gardenman]

Dak's injury looks bad, but if it's a simple dislocation he could be back in four to six weeks. I don't think it'll be that good, but it's possible. We'll have to see what happens. It's very unlikely he'll be back in less than four weeks. Four weeks is probably very optimistic. The reason for the extreme care in getting him off the field is a hope to avoid nerve damage. If the nerves haven't been damaged, you want to keep them undamaged. That type of injury can damage the nerves and leave a guy with foot drop. What you don't want is for that to happen after the injury if it didn't happen in the injury. If the foot is allowed to move around on its own, nerve injury is more of a possibility.

[Spurt]

@gardenman 

That has to be absolutely maddening with Fitzpatrick....after a bad performance another SPECTACULAR game today!!!  .As we talked before ya never which Fitzpatrick will show up...SMH

Wow!!! If Dak's injury is serious....now the Cowboys can say he's damaged goods as they lower their contract offer. .....And then there's his problem with depression....I feel bad for Dak.

[emmygrace]

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@Spurt wrote:

@gardenman 

That has to be absolutely maddening with Fitzpatrick....after a bad performance another SPECTACULAR game today!!!  .As we talked before ya never which Fitzpatrick will show up...SMH

Wow!!! If Dak's injury is serious....now the Cowboys can say he's damaged goods as they lower their contract offer. .....And then there's his problem with depression....I feel bad for Dak.

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I feel bad for him too..I saw it happen and you could see he was in pain..nothing worse!

[gardenman]

@Spurt 

Yeah, Ryan Fitzpatrick is impossible to predict. He can be great or horrible.

Dak's injury could help him in his contract deal as long as there's no nerve damage. It would have been nearly impossible to maintain his level of play all season, so he's hurt with arguably the best possible stats to negotiate on. If the Cowboys implode without him, then his value goes up even higher. With that defense they pretty much have to score forty points to win, and Andy Dalton won't score forty points many times. If they try to make him play on the tag again next year, Dak can refuse and force the Cowboys hand. The key is no nerve damage. As long as there's no issue with the nerves, he should recover and be good to go by next season at the latest.

[teganslaw]

Cleveland 32-Colts 23. The game went as I expected. The Colts could get no pressure on Mayfield throughout most of the game. Garrett was a disruptive force, as well as other defensive backs. The Browns are definitely legit. The AFC North is getting interesting now. 

Rivers was under a lot of pressure and had to force throws. He was out of sync and couldn't get comfortable. They were outmatched in many aspects. 

I like Mayfield's progressive commercials, though. 

They'll probably have more news on Dak's injury later. I hope it's not season ending for him.

[Spurt]

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@teganslaw wrote:

Cleveland 32-Colts 23. The game went as I expected. The Colts could get no pressure on Mayfield throughout most of the game. Garrett was a disruptive force, as well as other defensive backs. The Browns are definitely legit. The AFC North is getting interesting now. 

Rivers was under a lot of pressure and had to force throws. He was out of sync and couldn't get comfortable. They were outmatched in many aspects. 

I like Mayfield's progressive commercials, though. 

They'll probably have more news on Dak's injury later. I hope it's not season ending for him.

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@teganslaw 

Sorry about your Colts......

I like Mayfield's commercials too.... 

[gardenman]

They're saying a compound fracture now for Dak's ankle. That increases the risk of infection and complications, so he's likely done for the year. He's having surgery tonight and will likely be in the hospital for a week or so. You're probably looking at eight to ten weeks before weightbearing, then rehab and rebuilding the leg muscles. He could possibly make it back if the Cowboys have a playoff run, but it's a bit of a reach. Figure he's done for the year but should be ready for the offseason program.

[gardenman]

The Vikings put up a good fight last night, but you really don't want to give Russell Wilson the ball late in the game with a chance to win. They did and he did. Now the Vikings are in a pretty big hole and have lost any wriggle room. They pretty much have to beat the Bears and Packers anytime they meet for the rest of the year to have any chance of staying alive.

The NFC East got a bit more interesting yesterday. The Eagles seem to have finally found Carson Wentz a real live, honest to goodness wide receiver in Travis Fulgham. Who knew that was possible? Wentz has largely spent his career with unknown guys who can't play, or guys who can play but can't stay healthy for more than a day or two at a time. I'm sure there's a reason Fulgham had been cut by the Packers and Lions, but the Eagles seem to have unearthed a gem. Kudos to Jalen Hurts and Nate Sudfeld for recognizing his potential on the scout team and encouraging the team to bring him up. The shock of having a wide receiver who can get open and catch the ball may be too much for Wentz.

The Eagles may be ready to slowly claw their way back to the top of the NFC East. The kids on the o-line went against the best pass rushing defense in the league yesterday in the Steelers and more than held their own. Fulgham and Greg Ward give Wentz two receivers he can trust. Jalen Reagor should be coming back soon to give him a third. Wentz won't know what to do with himself. Zach Ertz is either injured or in a sulky mood about not getting a new contract like a lot of the other tight ends in the league. His play hasn't just dropped off, it's largely disappeared. If he wakes up and starts to play again, this team can make some moves as the rest of the NFC East is a mess.

The WFT made the move of benching Haskins only to have Josh Allen get knocked out of the game and replaced by Alex Smith. The WFT then let their barely recovered one-legged QB get sacked six times. I'm not wildly optimistic about them winning another game this year. The good news for them is they play the Giants this coming week and someone has to win that game. Probably. (By the way, pretty much everyone around the league thinks Haskins is available in a trade. We'll see what happens before the deadline but Haskins and Sam Darnold are two names to watch for teams like the Saints and Steelers. Haskins to the Steelers and Darnold to the Saints makes sense to me, but we'll see.)

Speaking of the Giants, they managed to put up 34 points on the worst defense in the NFL. And still lose. It's not a great year to be a Giants fan. Daniel Jones doesn't look quarterback-like playing quarterback. On one play yesterday he pretty much identified the entire Cowboy defense as the Mike linebacker at the line of scrimmage. Uh, no. You could hear him name three or four guys as the Mike then one or more of the offensive linemen started to call out the Mike instead and I'm not sure anyone on the offensive line knew who the heck to block. When you're the QB you're expected to know who the middle linebacker is, make the call and stick with it. Even if you're wrong at least everyone is doing the same thing.

The Cowboys continue to impress in a bad way on defense. Their inability to stop the run or pass is pretty much unprecedented in the history of the NFL. The Giants were bumbling oafs yesterday and still managed to put up 34 points on them. WIth Dak Prescott gone for the year and their offensive line not holding up well, their offensive produciton will tail off. They pretty much have to score 40 or more points a game to win this year and while Andy Dalton is a decent QB, he's not going to be able to do that on a consistent basis. (Truth be told, Dak Prescott couldn't do that on a consistent basis. Heck, Brett Favre at his best couldn't do that on a consistent basis. That defense will kill them.)

That Cowboy defense needs about seven new quality starters and you're not going to find them now. A new coordinator playing an attacking style rather than a read and react style would help also. A bold GM leading the Cowboys might look around the league for defenders they like and try to bring them in before the trading deadline. Their best trade bait is their third wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb. The kid looks like a star in the making and if they put him up for bids, they'd likely be able to pull in two competent defensive starters for him. (They've got Gallup and Amari Cooper under contract, so they could part with Lamb to get a couple of defenders. They won't, but they could.)

The Niners got spanked by the Dolphins yesterday pretty much destroying everyone's picks. Were the Niners that bad or was Ryan Fitzpatrick having one of his Fitzmagic days?  You just hate picking Dolphins' games as you never know which version of Fitzpatrick will show up.

The Chiefs lost a game! Whoa! The Raiders are defintely getting stronger each year under Gruden. They've still got a ways to go, but they're gaining ground. The Chiefs have a tough game against the Bills next week. They could lose two in a row. (Probably won't, but they could easily.)

The Falcons have said, "The heck with it" and finally fired Dan Quinn and their GM both. That may reverse the fortunes of the Falcons. Two years ago the players tried to get Quinn fired, but instead he shuffled his coaching staff. Last year they tried again and failed. The third time was the charm. So, we're down two head coaches and two GMs in just five weeks. A whole lot more could be joining them in the very near future. Adam Gase, Doug Marrone, and quite a few others aren't really giving their owners a solid reason to keep them around.

As of now, the best teams in the NFC are clearly the Seahawks and Packers. The AFC still is wide open. The teams most likely to get that first overall pick in 2021 are the Jets, Giants and Falcons. (Though I expect the Falcons to start playing better and win their way out of contention for that pick.) It's been an interesting season so far. 

The Eagles have one killer game left on their immediate schedule in the Ravens this coming week, then there are three very winnable games in the Giants, Cowboys, and Giants again. A loss to the Ravens would have them at 1-4-1, but wins against the Giants, Cowboys, Giants would have them back to 4-4-1 and likely atop the NFC East. They still have very loseable games against the Seahawks, Packers, Cards, and Saints, but even losing all four of them the Eagles could finish 8-8 and win the East. Sneak in a win or two against the Ravens, or one of the other four, and they could finish 9-7 or 10-6 despite a rather dismal start. All things considered (nineteen different starters on offense so far this year in five games) a 10-6 record would seem like a miracle.