Sports

[gardenman]

We start out on Saturday with two teams that know one another very well in the Seahawks at the Niners. You could have made some big money in Vegas in the preseason if you'd bet that Geno Smith and Brock Purdy would be starting QBs in the playoffs. Both have played well. Will one melt in the playoff pressure cooker? Pete Carroll is doing the old "They're too good. We can't possibly beat them." routine. He's hoping the Niners hear that and believe it so the Seahawks can ambush them. Sometimes it works. I think the Niners will get the win though.

Next up on Saturday is the Chargers at the Jaguars. The Jags need Trevor Lawrence to play well and he's been a bit hot and cold. They need him hot. When he's on, he's as good as anyone. When he's off, he's as bad as anyone. I love Doug Pederson and I think he'll find a way to eke out the win for the Jaguars.

Sunday starts off with the Dolphins at the Bills. Both teams know one another well. The Bills are the better team, but the Dolphins can stress them a bit. The Bills might have something of an emotional letdown too now that they know Damar is safe and well. I think the Bills will win, but an upset wouldn't shock me.

Next up on Sunday are the Giants at the Vikings. Daniel Jones versus Kirk Cousins. Daniel Jones needs to use his legs and avoid the stupid mistake (fumbles.) Kirk Cousins has a weakness that dates back to his days in DC. If he sees a blitz coming, he tends to panic and not make his reads. "There's a blitz! I've got to get rid of the ball!" You'll see savvy DCs sending blitzers from deep in the defense (middle linebackers/safeties) knowing Cousins will see them coming and abandon his reads. There may be no chance of the blitz getting to Cousins, but he doesn't care. If he sees it coming, he gets rid of the ball. The Vikings don't have the best playoff history, but I think they get the win.

Sunday night finds the Ravens at the Bengals. Lamar Jackson? God only knows if he'll play or not. If he does play and plays well, it'll be a good game. If he doesn't play, well, things look good for Cincy. I think the Bengals win either way.

And Monday night finds the Cowboys heading to Tampa to take on arch nemesis Tom Brady and the Bucs. A loss by Dallas in this one creates all kinds of chaos for them. The head coach, QB, Ezekiel Elliott, and more could all be on their way out if things go badly in this one. And I expect things to go badly for Dallas in this one. I think Micah Parsons is dinged in some manner. He hasn't been the same force in recent games. I would anticipate some offseason sugery for him of some sort. Something seems to be nagging him. The Cowboy secondary hasn't been very sharp lately and without a fierce pass rush, Brady can pick them apart. I've got the Bucs winning this one. The Cowboys have a ton of pressure on them and they don't typically respond well to playoff pressure.

[teganslaw]

I'm interested in the Chargers-Jags game. Both QBs have been inconsistent, but have also played brilliantly at times. 

Mike Williams was injured last week (why did the Chargers play their starters?) , so the Chargers could be missing him. 

There was some speculation that Jimmy G might play. That hasn't been substantiated, though.

There is bound to be an upset this weekend. Every year in the playoffs an underdog beats the favored team. It's difficult to guess who that could be. 

[m0rgan]

Glad to see you back on forums @gardenman.  Hope you are well.

[m0rgan]

Glad to see you back on forums.  Hope you are well.

[sunshine45]

so hard to believe that the OLDEST quarterback that will be playing in the AFC games will be mahomes! that is, of course, if all of the main 
QBs play the game......23 - 27 years old!

[Big Joanie]

this NFL season has just been wild.... so fun to watch and I have no

doubt the play offs will be the same....

[gardenman]

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@m0rgan wrote:

Glad to see you back on forums @gardenman.  Hope you are well.

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I'm glad to be back. My ban ended up only lasting a day or so. I'm doing okay.

[teganslaw]

The Ravens signed Roquan Smith to a 5 year 100 million contract, 45 million guaranteed. Analysts say that this potentially opens up the franchise tag to be used on Lamar Jackson. 

I haven't heard if Jackson would play under the franchise tag. Some players don''t like to do that, and I don't know how he feels about being franchised. There has been speculation for a while about Jackson going to another team. He wouldn't lack for suitors. Anyway, this makes Jackson's contract issues more interesting. 

SPURT: the Commanders fired OC Scott Turner. That's some good news for you. 

[gardenman]

A relatively quiet start to the firing season in the NFL. A few assistant coaches got the axe, but most of the head coaches have survived. So far anyway.

Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen has become a hot head coach prospect with at least three teams wanting to interview him. He's a good coach and a good guy, but his success is as much due to the players as his coaching. Having Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and a rock-solid o-line would make any coach look good. If he gets a head coaching job elsewhere, he won't have those guys.

Owners and GMs often seem to forget the talent level where a coaching prospect comes from. Any offensive coach with those players is going to look pretty good. The teams looking to hire a new head coach tend not to have good players. Not enough of them anyway. Put Shane in Indy with the roster they had this year and he'd likely have ended up with the same record they had this year. He's a coach, not a miracle worker. There might be a swing of a game or two one way or the other, but players matter.

Belichick with Brady was the GOAT of coaches. Belichick without Brady this year was 8-9. Did Belichick forget how to coach? No. He just doesn't have the same players.

Owners look at the Eagles and say, "They went 14-3? We should hire a coach from there!" But if they don't have the same caliber of players, they won't go 14-3. Players matter. The strength of the roster matters more than the coaching. Build a strong roster and nearly any coach will win. Build a weak roster and the greatest coach of all time will struggle. 

The coaching prospects know this also. Many will know they're joining an impossible situation. So, why take the job? They can make enough in a contract to provide for them for the rest of their lives. NFL head coaches tend to get $7+ million a year these days. on five-year guaranteed contracts. They can make more in five years than they could in twenty as an assistant. So, you sign on the dotted line, knowing that you'll likely get fired before the five years are up and pocket the cash.

[ValuSkr]

Of the six games this weekend, three are between division rivals:

Seahawks - 49ers: The 49ers won their last contest 21-13 on 12/15.

Dolphins - Bills:  The Bills won their last contest 32-29 on 12/17.

Ravens - Bengals:  The Bengals won their last contest 27-16 on 1/8.