It's May! Well, the rosters are more or less built, and now it's time to get the kids and vets back out on the fields for OTAs and minicamps. The draft is behind us. (Though the first mock drafts for 2023 will be going live later today.)
Is your team better than it was at this time last year? If yes, then congrats! If not, well there's always next year. Let's look around the league and get a feel for how things stand. We'll start with the AFC South.
The Titans seem to be giving up on winning in 2022 and looking ahead to 2024. They'll still try to win games this year, but the draft and trades imply they've decided they're not competitive enough now and are looking to the future. They traded away AJ Brown and drafted a kid to replace him who won't be able to replace him for a year or two. They drafted Malik Willis to be their QB of the future. Tannehill is their guy for 2022, but in 2023 they can walk away and probably will. They aren't building a roster to "win now" but seem to be hoping they're making the right moves to start to win in 2024.
The Colts are more in "win now" mode hoping they can find some magic in Matt Ryan's arm. Eh, I'm not so sure about that, but we'll see. The Jags are a year or two ahead of the Titans in the rebuilding process, and if Doug Pederson doesn't wreck Trevor Lawrence, they should be pretty competitive, pretty quickly. The Texans, well, they're the Texans. They've got some good pieces and Lovie Smith isn't the worst coach in the world, but something's just off with their upper management.
In the NFC West, the Seahawks fall into the "not better than last year" category. Replacing Russell Wilson with Drew Lock is not an upgrade. It's not a lateral move. It's a big drop-off. They're going to be worse this year than last. They say they're not interested in Baker Mayfield, and I don't see the Niners sending Jimmy G to them, so, yeah. Not a great year to be a Seahawk fan.
The Cards are in a contract war with their QB. That seldom ends well. He's likely to hold out of camp if they don't do a new deal, so yeah. Not great. The Niners still have Jimmy G and don't truly know what they have in the kid they drafted to replace him. I'm not wildly optimistic about their chances in 2022. The Rams are as strong, maybe stronger than last year, so they should be in pretty good shape assuming they avoid the Super Bowl hangover.
In the NFC North, Aaron Rodgers is once again expected to be a miracle worker with a cast of offensive nobodies. And he probably will be. You wonder how many records he could have shattered had the Packers ever gotten him the support they could have given him. The Bears are in year two of their rebuild and should be better. The Vikings are largely in a holding pattern and going nowhere. The Lions, well, they're the Lions. They're kind of the NFC version of the Texans.
The NFC South belongs to the Bucs with Brady back. The Falcons and Panthers are kind of a mess. The Saints without Drew Brees are not as impressive and with a new head coach this year, eh, probably not great.
The NFC East has three teams climbing up and one more or less declining. The Giants finally have a competent GM making good moves. They've finally improved the o-line. It's not a great o-line, but it's competent and that's a big upgrade from where they've been. The Commanders are a bit better. They've got some issues to address on the lines. They haven't moved Daron Payne yet and everyone pretty much knows he's a goner. Having a dead man walking on the roster is seldom a good thing. If he misses a tackle some will feel it was intentional. If you don't want the guy on your team, get rid of him. They're better at QB, RB, and WR this year. The o-line? Eh, kind of iffy, but we'll see.
The Eagles look to be improved in many spots and Sirianni has a year's experience under him now. There is no, zero, zip tension between the coaching staff and front office. (For now anyway.) The Eagles should be pretty good this year. Probably not as good as the Rams/Bucs, but better than the rest. The Cowboys, well they lost seven free agents (so far) including five (I think) starters. I think they're in decline.
The AFC East has the Bills still on top. The Patriots have had an "interesting" offseason. After spending money like a drunk sailor on free agents last year, they took a much more conservative approach this year. They've got a good QB in Mac Jones, but don't seem overly interested in building around him. They had an unconventional draft and need things to break right. I'm not wildly optimistic about their immediate future. The Jets and Dolphins seem to be moving forward. Both had good drafts and made some good free agent signings. I don't see anyone toppling the Bills though.
The AFC North is pretty much owned by the Bengals until proven otherwise. They finally figured out that maybe getting some quality o-linemen to protect the QB is a good idea. It's hard to see anyone toppling them in 2022. The Browns have Deshaun Watson, for better or worse. He'll likely be suspended for at least four games which won't help them and he's not a magician. In his last year as a starter in Houston, they won four games. The Ravens need to fix their injury bug and work out a new contract with Lamar Jackson. When healthy, they can compete with anyone. Does Harbaugh have the mental flexibility to make the changes necessary to limit injuries? We'll have to see. The Steelers could very well be starting a rookie QB this year and I don't expect a lot from them. But you never know.
And the AFC West is a whirling dervish of insanely good football teams. The Chiefs are likely still the best until someone unseats them, but all three of the other teams are grabbing chair legs and jerking away at the Chief's throne. That will be a fun division to watch. The Chargers have built an impressive roster on paper. The Broncos now have Russell Wilson. The Raiders added arguably the best wide receiver in football. Uh, yeah. It's going to be a knife fight to the end out there.
On the NFC side, you have to think the Rams and Bucs are the early Super Bowl favorites. Good rosters, good QBs, probably good coaches (Not really sure yet about the Bucs Todd Bowles.) Ascending teams are the Eagles, Cardinals, and Commanders.
On the AFC side, that whole AFC West is a problem, and then the Bills and Bengals too. I might give an early edge to the Chargers for the Super Bowl. It should be a fun year.
Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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