Offseason optimism is great and all of that, but the Colts fans on Stampede Blue might be a bit overly optimistic. Many seem to feel that the pending signing of Nick Foles is the last piece they need to win the Super Bowl this year. Eh, have they looked around the AFC?
There are a lot of really good AFC teams. The Bills, Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens (if healthy), and likely the Broncos are better than the Colts. I would lump the Colts in with teams like the Raiders, Patriots (who have had a really weird offseason), Dolphins, Browns, Titans, and maybe the Steelers as a second-tier group of teams on a par with the Colts. The Colts should be better than the Jags, Texans, and Jets.
The schedule starts out with two very winnable games in the Texans and Jags, then three much more challenging games in the Chiefs, Titans, and Broncos. A 2-3 or 3-2 record after those five games seems reasonable. Then the Jags, Titans, Commanders, Patriots, Raiders. Maybe two to three wins are possible there? Then the Eagles, Steelers, and Cowboys before the late bye. One or two wins there? Then the Vikings, Chargers, Giants, and Texans. Probably two or three more wins there. That would put them at eight to ten wins and might eke into the playoffs.
I just don't see the Colts being a Super Bowl team this year. Could they surprise me? Sure. Anything's possible, but they're not as good as the Bills, Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals. The Broncos with Russell Wilson are probably better also. If the Colts get to the playoffs, getting past those teams will be a challenge. They're in that mix of second-tier teams and could be in the upper half of that second-tier of teams, but that's not going to be enough to go far in the playoffs. If they were in the NFC they'd have a better shot, but that AFC is packed with really good teams and more teams on the rise.
Teams I see on the rise across the NFL would include the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets in the AFC East. The Patriots probably slipped a bit. The Jets have a ways to go, but they should be better than they were.
In the AFC North, the Bengals got better. The Steelers likely slipped. The Browns and Ravens are iffy. Health matters for the Ravens and the Browns have the Watson situation that's going to dominate their season.
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In the AFC South, I think the Titans slipped a bit and seem to be trying to transition to a rebuild on the fly. Losing AJ Brown will hurt them a bit. The drafting of Malik Willis shows they're transitioning. The Jags should be better. The Texans, eh. They're the Texans. The Colts are more or less where they were last year. I don't see them being vastly improved or worse.
Everyone's better in the AFC West. Each of those teams is stronger than they were last year, and they were all good last year. That AFC West is going to be brutal to play against. The fourth-place team there is very good. Only the Bengals and Bills would be clearly better than the fourth-place team in the AFC West.
In the NFC East the Eagles, Giants, and Commanders are better. (Not hard for the Giants.) The Cowboys seem to have slipped a wee bit losing five or six starters. I don't see them upgraded at any of those roster spots.
In the NFC North, the Packers have slipped, but no one's all that close to them even then. I think the Vikings have more or less held even., The Lions and Bears should be a little better. Both need to be a lot better though.
In the NFC South, the Bucs are still solid and largely unchanged. The Falcons are weaker. The Panthers are about the same. The Saints confuse me. I think they've slipped, or at most held steady, but others think much more highly of them.
In the NFC West, the Seahawks are worse. Going from Russell Wilson to Drew Lock is a big decline. The Rams are better. The Cards and Niners are iffier. I don't think the Niners are better, but I'm not sure how much worse they'll be. The Cards need to take care of Kyler Murray. Until they get his contract sorted out, things are going to be messy out there.
All in all, the AFC West just looks brutal to me. They may cannibalize each other and only one team makes the playoffs which would open things up a bit for the rest of the AFC. Even if just one of them makes the playoffs, there are still the Bills and Bengals to get past. Going deep into the AFC playoffs is going to be one heck of a challenge in 2022/2023. There are a lot of very talented and very well-coached teams in that AFC.
I don't see an NFC team that's on the same level as the best of the AFC teams. Anything can happen in a Super Bowl, but I'd be surprised if an AFC team didn't win the Super Bowl for the next few years. That conference is just stacked.
Fly!!! Eagles!!! Fly!!!
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