Sports

[gardenman]

The Saints restructured some contracts and wiped out about half of their cap deficit. They still have a long way to go to break even though.

Daniel Jeremiah's second mock draft is out, and he doesn't have a QB going until pick eighteen. Okay, sure. He still has the Texans taking Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton third overall. Safeties typically aren't valued that highly and as issues with the Texans go, safety is pretty far down the list. Chris Trapasso from CBS Sports has Hamilton going second overall. We'll have to see. I don't think a safety will go that high.

Most of the early mock drafts are ignoring the QBs in the top ten. I'm pretty sure a few QBs will go off the board in the top ten. I'm pretty sure one or more of the Lions, Giants, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons, will fall in love with a kid QB (or be intrigued by one anyway) and make a move in the top ten. Other teams may trade up to get a kid.

Don't forget, first-round picks have the fifth-year option which is very helpful for a high-priced guy like a QB. Baker Mayfield's fifth-year option for 2022 looks like it'll be $18.696 million. With upper-tier QBs making $40-$45 million a year that fifth-year option saves the Browns $22-$27 million in 2022. Even Kyler Murray who qualifies for the highest fifth-year option rate (more than one pro bowl) only gets $28.598 on his fifth-year option. A new deal for Kyler will have him in the $45 million a year range, so the Cards save $17 million or so. 

If you need a new QB (and lots of teams do) and there's a kid you think has even a 50-50 shot at being successful, you'd best grab them in the first round. The money you can save by using that fifth-year option is pretty big and justifies the risk.

Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick (no fifth-year option for him) and in 2024 he'll be a free agent. Instead of paying him as little as $18+ million in 2024, the Eagles will need to get him signed to a market-rate deal that could be in the $40-$50 million a year range. That's a $22-$32 million difference. With a hard cap, saving that much money in a year is a big bonus.

[Spurt]

@teganslaw

The Colts are proposing regular and post season Overtime changes

[teganslaw]

The proposal would guarantee that both teams have a chance to possess the ball in regular season and playoff games. To pass they will need 24 votes out of 32. Not sure how much support there is for this. 

A report is saying that Jim Irsay is a huge Russell Wilson fan and would like to sign him. I like Wentz, but if he has to go, Wilson is a good choice. 

Unfortunately, Wilson has a no trade clause, and the Colts don't have any first round picks to offer. That's not going to happen. 

[gardenman]

I think pretty much everyone in the league is a big Russell Wilson fan. What's not to like? He's absurdly talented and a high-character guy also. I don't really see the Seahawks moving on from him. They don't have a kid QB waiting in the wings. Unless Wilson issues a "trade me or I'll retire" ultimatum to the Seahawks, he'll likely be a Seahawk next year. And if they do trade him, it'll be to a team that can send a quality kid QB back to them. (Chicago, Philly, Miami, Jets, Jacksonville, etc.) The Colts could send Wentz back which might be okay for Seattle, but they'd want lots more besides.

I think they'd want a kid QB with lots of low-cost contract still ahead of him. If the Jets offered a Zach Wilson, or the Patriots a Mac Jones, the Seahawks might just think about things a wee bit. Zach Wilson and the Jets' first-round pick this year (fourth overall) and Russell Wilson might be a Jet. 

Some Eagles fans are spreading the fantasy of the Eagles packaging picks and players to get Wilson and DK Metcalf. While that would be great, it's also insanely unlikely. I think the only high-value QBs who will get traded are Watson and Jimmy G. And there's some debate as to how high-value Jimmy G truly is. I think Rodgers will either stay in Green Bay or retire. I don't see the Seahawks cutting Wilson loose unless he makes them. Watson will definitely get moved at some point, but I was saying that last year about this time also and he hung around all year in Houston. Could they hold him another year? Sure. The Niners are talking about possibly keeping Jimmy G around for another year also, so who knows what will happen.

I think about half the teams in the league were intrigued by the idea of getting one of the top-tier QBs this offseason, but then reality struck, and most have decided, "We're okay where we are." Those teams still desperate for an upgrade are looking at the Mariotas, Winstons, and possibly trading for a Gardner Minshew. While all three are competent starters, all three are serious downgrades from a Wilson, Watson, or Rodgers.

Ali Marpet is creating a new hole in the Bucs roster by retiring. They're apt to take a rather big step back with Brady and Marpet both retiring. Gronk has been quiet about his future, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him step down also. He's a free agent this year and could go elsewhere or retire. Tampa's going to have issues.

The NFC South is going to be pretty interesting next year. That may end up being the worst division in football. The Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, and Saints all have huge issues heading into 2022. The only one of the four with a QB is the Falcons with Matt Ryan who hasn't been good lately. Is there a true playoff-caliber team among the four? Someone has to win the South, but it won't be pretty.

[Spurt]

@gardenman

Great analysis on the QBs

Out of the rookies I see more and more mock drafts with Washington taking Malik Willis or Pickett

[gardenman]

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@Spurt wrote:
@gardenman

Great analysis on the QBs

Out of the rookies I see more and more mock drafts with Washington taking Malik Willis or Pickett

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@Spurt 

Given the QB situation around the league, I suspect two to four rookie QBs to go on the first ten to twelve picks. Unless they bomb at the combine and in one-on-one interviews, teams will be forced to take a chance on them. That fifth-year option makes taking one in the first round a good idea. You get an extra lower cost year from them by drafting one in the first round.

If you redid the 2021 draft. Mac Jones would be a top ten pick. Maybe a top-five pick. Teams like recent history and Mac Jones wasn't even a consensus first-round pick last year. Teams will be looking at the kids coming out this year with that in mind and knowing they missed on a Mac Jones, they may be more inclined to take a chance on a kid even if people say he's not a top-ten guy. A good QB is more valuable than a good lineman.

[Spurt]

@gardenman @teganslaw 

And in the NFL broadcasting booth merry go round, one source said that Aikman didnt like doing Thursday Night Football Games in addition to Sunday....he even had it incorporated an out in his contract that he could say he would not do Thursday Night Football and he could opt out of Fox if he got a bigger and better offer.....which he did, and he left...............

Our local eyes discussed the NFL broadcast booth---Interesting observations---

1.  They all said Tony Romo was overrated (and that's a surprise coming from Cowboy fans).......They do like Aikman and said he takes a more understated approach....

2.  They all agreed that Gus Johnson was their dream play by play announcer...(Fox college football/basketball and NFL games)...They also really like the combo of Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen.....They dont like Al Michaels and said he provided a subpar performance at the Super Bowl....

3.  Don Harris (our cities sportscaster JMHO)---had harsh words for Kyle Murray ----he said the actions of Murray were unconscionable and childish--- some players said he spent halftime in front of his locker calling his girlfriend or with airbuds on, isolating himself from the team (JMHO and some think Wentz isnt a team player, now whois the real diva!!!...SMH).....

[Spurt]

@gardenman 

David Jeremiah had this to say about the top QB Prospects--

“I think Kenny Pickett is ready to come in and play right away,” Jeremiah said. “Could be a solid player. A good, solid starter. I’ve compared him to kind of a little more athletic version of a Matthew Hasselbeck if everything hits right for him. He was a good player for a long time.”

True. But teams are not going to fall over themselves to draft “a little more athletic version of Matthew Hasselbeck.”

“Malik Willis to me is like the ultimate wild card,” Jeremiah said. “What you get right now is going to be a lot different than what he is two or three years down the road. Could be a huge payoff. But there’s some risks associated with that. As with any of these quarterbacks, I think it comes down to getting in the right fit with the right group of people and having proper patience.

“But if they all dropped out of the first round, and I needed a quarterback early in the second, I think I’d try to roll the dice with Willis and say I’m gonna gamble on greatness, and there’s a chance I could hit it big.”

Hmmmm--- Willis sounds like a gamble Washington would take....