Community Chat

[QueenDanceALot]

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@pitdakota wrote:

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@Mom2Dogs wrote:

@esmerelda   We will probably never know...1 small example...car accident in my county, death certifiate read Covid as the cause.  The family made a big stink about it and the death certificate is supposed to be changed.  I have not heard if that has happened yet.  

A friend in Florida says a friend of her has covid, and has tested positive several times since the initial diagnosis/positive test.  Every time she is tested, and it's positive (which has been 3 times now) it is reported as a positive case....but the three positives are coming from 1 person.  Something is fishy.

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@Mom2Dogs, nothing is fishy about that.  Those are called "duplicates".  The lab just reports the initial data and patient information.  They then run everything through a program that identifies the duplicates and then they remove the number for the total case count.

When our governor was giving daily briefings he always pointed out the duplicates because if people were tracking the numbers, they would come up with a different total than the official public health website.  That is because duplicates were removed.

So no, all 3 tests were not counted in the final number.  They were reported as positive, but the computer will identify them as duplicates, public health staff review it to make sure it is a duplicate patient and then adjust the number down.

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Thanks, @pitdakota 

I was just going to post that about our governor.

[pitdakota]

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@QueenDanceALot wrote:

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@pitdakota wrote:

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@Mom2Dogs wrote:

@esmerelda   We will probably never know...1 small example...car accident in my county, death certifiate read Covid as the cause.  The family made a big stink about it and the death certificate is supposed to be changed.  I have not heard if that has happened yet.  

A friend in Florida says a friend of her has covid, and has tested positive several times since the initial diagnosis/positive test.  Every time she is tested, and it's positive (which has been 3 times now) it is reported as a positive case....but the three positives are coming from 1 person.  Something is fishy.

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@Mom2Dogs, nothing is fishy about that.  Those are called "duplicates".  The lab just reports the initial data and patient information.  They then run everything through a program that identifies the duplicates and then they remove the number for the total case count.

When our governor was giving daily briefings he always pointed out the duplicates because if people were tracking the numbers, they would come up with a different total than the official public health website.  That is because duplicates were removed.

So no, all 3 tests were not counted in the final number.  They were reported as positive, but the computer will identify them as duplicates, public health staff review it to make sure it is a duplicate patient and then adjust the number down.

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Thanks, @pitdakota 

I was just going to post that about our governor.

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Hi @QueenDanceALot!    Yes, he always gave the number of duplicates from the previous day so the number was adjusted down.  They know how to track the data.  

[suzyQ3]

@pitdakota& @QueenDanceALot, I know that there is distrust of experts, but I can't imagine any who would allow multiple tests of one person, which is very common, to be all added to the data. Even I would know would know better. :-)

[SusieQ_2]

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@suzyQ3 wrote:

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@pitdakota wrote:

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@suzyQ3 wrote:

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@Puppy Lips wrote:
There is a difference between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus. My nurse friend said that people who likely were doing to die anyway, due to other issues, who tested positive, are counted as dying from the virus. So I think the numbers are skewed.

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@Puppy Lips, likely to die? If they were positive for the virus and died from complications, shouldn't that be counted as a Covid death, as opposed to their testing positive but falling off a ladder and dying?

Maybe @pitdakota can weigh in for us. :-)

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@suzyQ3, ridiculous to say the least.  Anyone that dies, dies "from" something.  It is lay people termniology that someone died of old age.  Well they may be old, but their lungs either gave out & they contracted pneumonia, they had a stroke, they had kidney failure....you get the picture.  That is the cause of death.  And it is counted in the death rate reported for that county, state, etc. 

Fact is, someone 100 years old that is living and ticking along just fine for being a 100 that contracts covid-19 and dies, dies from covid-19.  It is literally "elementary my dear Watson".  lol

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@pitdakota, yes, thanks. I didn't think it made sense. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a talking point in some circles.

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@suzyQ3 

It sounds to me like you and pitdakota aren't talking about the same types of illness that Puppy Lips was talking about. I don't think she was talking about things like falling off a ladder after having tested positive for covid. I also don't think she was talking about a person who passes away with what the lay person calls old age while coincidentally also being covid positive.

It sounded to me like she was talking about serious terminal illnesses from which the person has no chance of recovery such as advanced cancer, HIV, the last stages of Alzheimer's, heart failure...all things that are enough to claim a life on their own and were predicted to do so. Then, when the person is tested and the results for covid are positive that's what is listed as the cause of death.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that's what happens. I have no idea. But I do think that's the point Puppy Lips was making. 

[shoekitty]

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@SoX wrote:

I don't want to derail your thread @esmerelda , but you'll not get this information from the two agencies you cited.   Both agencies are supposed to be autonomous, but actually have been getting their marching orders elsewhere.   Even persons with no knowledge of how such data is compiled are preventing such information from becoming accessible.

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Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

[shoekitty]

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@shoekitty wrote:

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@SoX wrote:

I don't want to derail your thread @esmerelda , but you'll not get this information from the two agencies you cited.   Both agencies are supposed to be autonomous, but actually have been getting their marching orders elsewhere.   Even persons with no knowledge of how such data is compiled are preventing such information from becoming accessible.

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Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

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Shoekitty said.   @SoX , the spoiler is, five thumbs up.  For some reason I was not allowed to leave 5 thumbs up.  They powers that be said it was "flooding"

[suzyQ3]

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@SusieQ_2 wrote:

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@suzyQ3 wrote:

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@pitdakota wrote:

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@suzyQ3 wrote:

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@Puppy Lips wrote:
There is a difference between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus. My nurse friend said that people who likely were doing to die anyway, due to other issues, who tested positive, are counted as dying from the virus. So I think the numbers are skewed.

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@Puppy Lips, likely to die? If they were positive for the virus and died from complications, shouldn't that be counted as a Covid death, as opposed to their testing positive but falling off a ladder and dying?

Maybe @pitdakota can weigh in for us. :-)

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@suzyQ3, ridiculous to say the least.  Anyone that dies, dies "from" something.  It is lay people termniology that someone died of old age.  Well they may be old, but their lungs either gave out & they contracted pneumonia, they had a stroke, they had kidney failure....you get the picture.  That is the cause of death.  And it is counted in the death rate reported for that county, state, etc. 

Fact is, someone 100 years old that is living and ticking along just fine for being a 100 that contracts covid-19 and dies, dies from covid-19.  It is literally "elementary my dear Watson".  lol

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@pitdakota, yes, thanks. I didn't think it made sense. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a talking point in some circles.

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@suzyQ3 

It sounds to me like you and pitdakota aren't talking about the same types of illness that Puppy Lips was talking about. I don't think she was talking about things like falling off a ladder after having tested positive for covid. I also don't think she was talking about a person who passes away with what the lay person calls old age while coincidentally also being covid positive.

It sounded to me like she was talking about serious terminal illnesses from which the person has no chance of recovery such as advanced cancer, HIV, the last stages of Alzheimer's, heart failure...all things that are enough to claim a life on their own and were predicted to do so. Then, when the person is tested and the results for covid are positive that's what is listed as the cause of death.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that's what happens. I have no idea. But I do think that's the point Puppy Lips was making. 

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It's an interesting point, @SusieQ_2. But I still think if Covid is what put them over the edge, it is legitimately the cause of death.

[Drythe]

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@pitdakota wrote:

Death rates per se are only calculated for deaths related to chronic disease, not communicable diseases.  For communicable disease they use a case fatality ratio which gives a percentage that reflects of the number of identified cases how many of those people died.   Although you will see media reporting death rate and various doctors calling it a death rate because that is what the public understands, but when looking at actual data reported clinically it appears as a percentage

So to calculate the case fatality ratio one would take the number of deaths due to that communicable disease in a defined geographical region and divide it by the number of identified cases.  That yields a percentage which is called the case fatality ratio.

For those quibbling with data....there is no perfect system anywhere on earth.  We calculate death rates due to heart disease in every county in this country.  But even those numbers aren't pristine.  Fatality rates are reported per 100,000 people of a defined population.  If people don't fill out their census or fill out other sources of information used by this country to determine population of a certain area, the population number is off.  Everyone that deals with public health data knows this.  But it doesn't make a difference, because one looks for trends over different periods of time to make conclusions.  The most important thing is consistency in calculating the data.

Even when they have large outbreaks of ebola in various countries in Africa, they don't have an accurate percentage for case fatality rate.  Some die in a village without ever seeking healthcare and aren't counted in the identified case group, nor the fatality group.  But public health officials, NGOs, and other medical groups still use the case fatality ratio to determine areas of priority to send medical teams, resources, supplies, etc.  They also use the case fatality ratio for that area to determine the progress they are making in stemming the outbreak.    

The same happens with influenza, bubonic plaque, measles, pertussis, etc.  Not all cases are identified, not all deaths are identified either.  

No system on earth can track every single case of any type of communicable disease and every death caused by that communicable disease.  

The case fatality rate for this country will vary from day to day.  Epidemiologists look for trends and changes up or down.  The case fatality ratio will be higher today because of the increased number of deaths reported over the past week than the case fatality ratio for the week previous.   Right now the only value of the case fatality ratio is to gauge how the percentage is moving, either up or down. They will determine a final annual case fatality rate at the end of the calendar year.

A better determination for most is to look at case fatality ratio in their specific geographical area.  If numbers are reported for your county, you can calculate the percentage.  If county information isn't reported you can get numbers for each state.

And by the way, there is very good evidence that the number of deaths due to covid-19 aren't accurate either.  The city of Houston has seen a marked increase in at home deaths over the past 4 weeks.  Many of those deaths may be due to covid.  But they won't be counted unless the medical  examiner tests the body and has evidence of a disease process prior to death that is consistent with covid-19.  And most medical examiners are too busy to do that on any consistent basis.

I saw an interview with a doctor in San Antonio that had to make a decision on which 3 covid-19 patients he could take to put on ECMO out of 10 calls he recevied.  ECMO is really a last effort to try and save someone on a ventilator with covid-19.  That means up to 7 people may have died because the patients did not have access to an ICU with the equipment to perform ECMO.  Hard to say what happened to them. The doctor did say all 10 patients were young.  

These are the decisions that health care providers are having to make when the ICUs get full and resources are limited.  In that situation, the case fatality ratio will increase for the county because they just don't have to medical resources to treat the patients.  

And for those that are interested in the information about San Antonio you can google "Texas doctor forced to choose which covid-19 patients get beds.....".  

I can't even begin to imagine the decision making process of how you decide which 3 young people will get the bed for ECMO and know that you have most probably destined the other 7 young people to die.  That is a horrible position to be in for anyone!

Obviously the case fatality ratio will be higher for the county in which San Antonio resides than another county in Texas that has  adequate ICU beds, ventilators, and ECMO equipment available.  

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@pitdakota 

Bless you for being a voice of logic and reason.  

As others have have pointed out, the numbers are readily available on one’s tv, or internet site of choice.  

Although some states have made the decision not to post numbers, or to only post them weekly, which LOWERS the rate of infection short term, then people say, look how SMALL it is, it’s GOING AWAY.  But, then when the numbers show up as a big one day increase the same people then ARGUE because it’s TOO big, it MUST BE OVER REPORTED.

I TOTALLY Agree with You!  The continued quibble over the cause of death is irrational and dismissive.  A productive, useful, loved, happy, member of society can live a good many years with a progressive disease.  How many people here don’t have one?  So, say one has cancer, but meets the same criteria above, sadly, on the way to their weekly volunteer at the food bank, they are hit by a car, and die on the street.  Would anyone really say - oh, well, they were going to die anyway? The car didn’t REALLY kill them, let’s NOT charge the driver with vehicular manslaughter!  Of course NOT!  They died of vehicular manslaughter, they HAD cancer, but it did not kill them.  All of us are GOING TO DIE ANYWAY, so why count at all?  Same with COVID19.

Sadly, I think people are going to keep choosing their own rates based on suppositions that meet their own personal imperatives.

PS - my DS worked in ECMO research in Grad school.  We are HealthCare to the bone.

~Be Safe -Be Well~

[vsm]

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@ellaphant wrote:

Turn on CNN. On the right of the screen they have a world cases and death rate and a U.S. cases and death rate that runs 24/7. Current U.S. death rate is 134, 580.

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134,580 is a number, not a rate.