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Honored Contributor
Posts: 9,612
Registered: ‎03-16-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"


@gardenman wrote:

Regarding heat and humidity slowing the virus, if you look at the global map you'll notice the vast majority of cases are in the northern hemisphere. There's some in the southern hemisphere, but not nearly as many. What's the difference? I was going to argue that the southern hemisphere was in summer/fall mode while the northern hemisphere was in winter/spring mode.

 

A bit more poking around shows it could be population density causing the fluctuation and not temp and humidity. I just looked it up and was surprised to find that something like 90% of the population lives in the northern hemisphere. I'd assumed it would be more 50/50. That pretty much accounts for the difference in reported cases. 


I think this can be seen in our country too, with the more densely populated states vs the lesser populated.

Honored Contributor
Posts: 9,612
Registered: ‎03-16-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"


@noodleann wrote:

"Invitable"? Let's find whoever's inviting the scourge and get them to stop.

Testing is meaningless for a host of reasons, immunity is unproven and there are recurrences, herd immunity is not proven, and vaccines may not be adequate, all that effective, and many may decide against them.I don't want this virus in my body, so no vaccine for me. 

 

TREATMENT is what they need to find. They need meds and protocols to deal with the virus at every stage of infection, in people who have the lightest to the heaviest viral loads.

 

And we need a good supply of masks for the general public that are easily fitted and block the virus. It would be wise to develop masks that men with facial hair can wear, since the N95 won't work if you have facial hair because you can't get a good seal.


@noodleann 

 

I agree with much of what you've said.  This virus is going to be around for the foreseeable future now.  It's said that the flu we have now is a variation(s) of the one from 1918.

 

We need to take the next few months to prepare to live and function with this.  We can't continue to shut everything down and stay at home for months on end on a continuing basis.  

Respected Contributor
Posts: 3,308
Registered: ‎09-15-2016

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"

This again? The correct short version...the virus dies faster on outdoor surfaces when exposed to sun - heat compared to indoor surfaces. The virus isn't going away but the economy has to open now so be cautious & do what's best for you.

Respected Contributor
Posts: 2,492
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"

The omission of one tiny letter drastically changes the meaning of the subject line.  

Honored Contributor
Posts: 10,472
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"


@santorini wrote:

The omission of one tiny letter drastically changes the meaning of the subject line.  


It sure wouldn't be 'invited' to any of my gatherings.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 5,287
Registered: ‎09-18-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"


@songbird wrote:

We are going to welcome the heat as the it will make the COVID19 virus dormant.  But I'm very worried abut the fall and winter. According to  Dr. Fauci, the country's leading leading  epidemiologist, it will come back.  The average virus hangs around 18 months to 2 years.  There is no vaccine so far.  Even trials for vaccines last 2 years at least.   

 

**edited to remove link**


If the heat were really a deterrant, in my opinion, Florida wouldn't have so many cases. I don't believe this to be true, I wish I did, but I do not. 

 

And if this goes for 18 months to 2 years, which it very well may, I worry about all of our mental health. 

Honored Contributor
Posts: 21,662
Registered: ‎03-09-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"


@CrazyDaisy wrote:

Dr. Fauci has said a lot of things, then changes his mind.  Will worry about Fall later.


@CrazyDaisya.k.a. Scarlett O'hara. :-)

 

If we had only been more serious this first go-around, thing might have been different. Just one week's early shut-down could have save thousands and thousands of lives.

 

As for Dr. Fauci, he is not perfect. Gee, that's a shock. But I'll take him anytime over some others. I believe that he has no motive or agenda other than saving us.


~Who in the world am I? Ah, that's the great puzzle~ Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Valued Contributor
Posts: 895
Registered: ‎03-06-2020

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"

In my circle, we are taking precautions based on our needs/health. 

 

I have a son who is to start HS this fall. He is also supposed to leave for boarding school about an 1 1/2 hours away. This is now all up in the air and honestly, no one I know is thrilled about having their children (even college) return to school because of the fall/winter flu season AND covid hitting at the same time. The decision I have to make is do I want to truly home school him. I've done it so far and MUCH better than what my county is offering students so....it's a strong possibility.

 

Considering  the number of people I see not following rules, I have no doubt it's going to spike and be much worse this fall/winter. That's why we never stopped stocking up. Using common sense, we always thought that the food supply would shrink as factory workers, farmers, truckers, etc became ill. I'm waiting for no trash pickup, police, etc. Indeed, big article today discusses just this.

 

I've never been one to sit around and wait to be told what to do. Maybe that's the scientist in me (I work in research). DH is the same way. Maybe because my father grew up poor during the Great Depression; his family became the "unseen/unwashed" at that point. Whatever it is, we've been quietly adding to our supply, purchased a freezer when you could and have been adding to it bit by bit over the months. I stay far away from people during flu season anyway so this habit will already be in place. 

"Coming to ya from Florida"
Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 7,616
Registered: ‎02-19-2014

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"

I think July and August are likely going to be our moments to get out some and prepare for the fall. In the states that have not reopened prematurely, those months may be safer than for the ones that have.

 

A second wave may be more disruptive than this first one has been because typically there are more deaths in a second pandemic wave (see the Spanish Flu and others), and in our country, most locales will refuse to shut down again.

 

And heat doesn't make anything dormant. We live in modern times. We live in climate controlled environments in winter and summer and much of the rest of the time too. Any time we gather all bunched together in climate controlled environments, the virus has ideal conditions. So that can occur any time of the year for us.

 

Our best bet, beyond vaccines and innoculations is if COVID-19 weakens and becomes less deadly over time. There is no guarantee or reason to think that will happen, and the opposite could also occur as long as the virus has enough living hosts to propagate itself.

When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.
"Power without love is reckless and abusive, and love without power is sentimental and anemic." - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr
Honored Contributor
Posts: 12,720
Registered: ‎03-10-2010

Re: Second wave this fall and winter " invitable"

Summer here in maine, is going to be strange, people can not rent their cottages, homes , motels ,until  july, so not sure , how the tourist places are going to cope.

When you lose some one you L~O~V~E, that Memory of them, becomes a TREASURE.