Community Chat

[gidgetgh]

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@morganjen wrote:

I just heard today that Australia is going to continue their lockdown for a whole year. I'd guess the U.S. will probably be similar.

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oh my gosh. My best friends daughter and her husband have lived in Australia for some years now.  Daughter came home for a quick trip for a wedding.  While here, Australia closed their borders and she can't get back there. She has a visa, but not a permanent visa so she can't travel back to Australia. In the meantime, her husband (also an American) is still in Australia. It is quite the dilemma. 

[gidgetgh]

Oh. I just googled and it says that, in Australia, social distancing might continue for another YEAR.  Lockdown has been extended another 4 WEEKS.

[sunshine45]

4/17/2020

HOGAN NEWS CONFERENCE FOR MARYLAND

Hogan began the news conference by saying Maryland has experienced its “deadliest week to date” from the virus. But he stressed the number of Marylanders who have recovered from the virus rose by 22% during the week.

“We are beginning to see some hopeful and encouraging signs,” Hogan said.

The governor said any plans for reopening must come with expanded hospital testing, increasing protective gear for hospitals and intensive care beds and a “robust” contact tracing operation.

The governor reminded Marylanders that beginning Saturday they must wear face masks to go into retail stores or ride public transportation. He responded to objections that the masks infringe on a person’s liberty.

“Spreading this disease infringes on your neighbors’ rights,” Hogan said.

In response to a question about a protest planned for Saturday in favor of “re-opening” Maryland, Hogan said he understands the frustration of small business owners and others unhappy with the extended closure of businesses and gatherings.

“We’re going to have to do that in a safe manner,” the governor said. “I’m just as frustrated as they are.”

Maryland officials said Friday they were closing public schools until May 15 as deaths from the coronavirus pandemic continue to increase in the state.

via the baltimore sun

[heart of savino]

In new york resturants and bars wont open  any time soon,

beaches and all pools will be closed this summer.

[Stray]

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@nova wrote:

@Mz iMac Ugh I didn't hear his entire speech today because I got a phone call during it.  This is tough!  If you are also in NJ I hope all is well with you & your family.  

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@nova - Bergen County here.   It's very tough in my location.  I thought I heard the Gov mention 8/4 with cases leveling off.   Both the commissioner and Gov change the "peak" information.  Are we in it?  I know the virus is spreading south and it will peak later.  NJ Strong 

[shoekitty]

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@Still Raining wrote:

Here in Oregon we were never given any ending date.  I wonder if that is easier to deal with?  No dashed hopes.

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Shoekitty said:  I'm in California, and I think we are in it with you.  Our Govenour said they do have a plan, and they will do it in conjunction with west coast .  There are 6 criteria they address, it will open in stages, with distancing, masks and other precautions.  However, they didn't say when lol. 

[RealtyGal2]

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@gardenman wrote:

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@bandaidinmysalad wrote:

The fear is so ingrained in most people I believe that even when we (me and my husband) say that we want to get out again and see people go back to work, the fear does not leave us not for one second and that is a huge thing, a huge pyschological stumbling block.  How does one get over the fear.  Eventually, the country will reopen.  But, how do you get over the fear?  

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It pays to keep things in perspective. We are a country of 320 plus million people. As of this moment, a total of 676,676 in the US have been infected. Many of them have recovered and are no longer infectious. In terms of percentage that's just about 0.21% of the population that's been infected. In other words, about one of every five hundred people have been infected. Of those, probably half have recovered and are no longer infectious. That would put the odds of you even meeting someone who was infectious at one in a thousand. How often do you bump into a thousand people?

Even if you bump into someone who's infectious, what are the odds you'll get coronavirus? Not very high. The worst-case scenarios had each infected person infecting one to 2.2 people per day. If each infected person infected just one other person a day and those people each infected one other person each day, the whole world would have been infected in 34-35 days. So, for the numbers of infected to be as low as they are, each infected person is infecting way fewer than one person a day. What are the odds you'd bump into a person and be the one person they'd infect? Not very high. You can lessen those odds even more by wearing a mask, washing your hands and following basic safety procedures.

Even if you bump into an infected person and get infected, the odds of recovery are around 96%. In this country, the percentage of the population that's died from coronavirus at this moment is 0.01%. That's not a very big number. 

So to put the fear into perspective, the odds of you even meeting someone who's currently infectious is probably around one in a thousand. The odds of that person infecting you are pretty darn remote. And even in the worst-case and all of that happens you still have a 96% chance of recovery. Those are pretty darn good numbers.

Use the numbers and your common sense to reassure yourself. Take precautions but trust that you'll be okay. The reality is we're all more passengers in life than drivers. Whatever happens to us is largely out of our control. We like to think we have control over our lives, but in truth, we're mostly along for the ride. You can do absolutely everything right and have an out of control car run you down.

There are theoretical physicists who will tell you that time is nonlinear and even though we experience it in a linear fashion, it's nonlinear and everything that has ever happened and will ever happen took place in the blink of an eye after the big bang. According to them, we're just experiencing it now, but it was all set in stone, way back then. It's as if we're all characters in a movie on film and what we see as now, is just the frames of the film that capture our life, but we can't change what's on the film. It's all been locked in from long before we ever existed.

If you buy into that belief, then you getting infected or not is out of your control and whatever will happen was decided eons ago. Just do the basics to keep yourself safe and understand that it's highly unlikely you'll get the virus. Even if you get the virus, it's highly unlikely you'll die from it as the vast majority recover. Don't let the fear control you. Control the fear instead. The numbers really aren't that bad when you keep them in perspective.

Now, watch the negative Nellies rush in and say, "But we don't have enough testing to truly know how bad things are! We need more testing!" The numbers we have are the numbers we have. You can't let 'what could be' control you. Even if all of the numbers were doubled or tripled the odds of you meeting someone with the virus and getting infected are still very remote. Control what you can control and accept that there are some things you have no control over and go on with life. There's always going to be something out there that will kill you. No one lives forever. Just live your life while you can and trust in God, fate, yourself, to keep you safe. 

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You DO NOT know what the numbers are because there has not been enough testing so you are basing your whole premise on false numbers! That is not negativity, it is a fact. "There's always going to be something out there that will kill you. No one lives forever. Just live your life while you can and trust in God, fate, yourself, to keep you safe." Really? How about using a little common sense and listening to the medical experts?

[RealtyGal2]

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@shoekitty wrote:

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@Still Raining wrote:

Here in Oregon we were never given any ending date.  I wonder if that is easier to deal with?  No dashed hopes.

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Shoekitty said:  I'm in California, and I think we are in it with you.  Our Govenour said they do have a plan, and they will do it in conjunction with west coast .  There are 6 criteria they address, it will open in stages, with distancing, masks and other precautions.  However, they didn't say when lol. 

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They can't say when because as the health experts say "the virus will tell us when it is safe to start moving back towards normalcy (the new normal)."

[qualitygal]

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@haddon9 wrote:

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@bandaidinmysalad wrote:

The fear is so ingrained in most people I believe that even when we (me and my husband) say that we want to get out again and see people go back to work, the fear does not leave us not for one second and that is a huge thing, a huge pyschological stumbling block.  How does one get over the fear.  Eventually, the country will reopen.  But, how do you get over the fear?  

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@bandaidinmysalad Good question.  I wish I knew.

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One day at a time.

[gardenman]

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@RealtyGal2 wrote:

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@gardenman wrote:

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@bandaidinmysalad wrote:

The fear is so ingrained in most people I believe that even when we (me and my husband) say that we want to get out again and see people go back to work, the fear does not leave us not for one second and that is a huge thing, a huge pyschological stumbling block.  How does one get over the fear.  Eventually, the country will reopen.  But, how do you get over the fear?  

---

It pays to keep things in perspective. We are a country of 320 plus million people. As of this moment, a total of 676,676 in the US have been infected. Many of them have recovered and are no longer infectious. In terms of percentage that's just about 0.21% of the population that's been infected. In other words, about one of every five hundred people have been infected. Of those, probably half have recovered and are no longer infectious. That would put the odds of you even meeting someone who was infectious at one in a thousand. How often do you bump into a thousand people?

Even if you bump into someone who's infectious, what are the odds you'll get coronavirus? Not very high. The worst-case scenarios had each infected person infecting one to 2.2 people per day. If each infected person infected just one other person a day and those people each infected one other person each day, the whole world would have been infected in 34-35 days. So, for the numbers of infected to be as low as they are, each infected person is infecting way fewer than one person a day. What are the odds you'd bump into a person and be the one person they'd infect? Not very high. You can lessen those odds even more by wearing a mask, washing your hands and following basic safety procedures.

Even if you bump into an infected person and get infected, the odds of recovery are around 96%. In this country, the percentage of the population that's died from coronavirus at this moment is 0.01%. That's not a very big number. 

So to put the fear into perspective, the odds of you even meeting someone who's currently infectious is probably around one in a thousand. The odds of that person infecting you are pretty darn remote. And even in the worst-case and all of that happens you still have a 96% chance of recovery. Those are pretty darn good numbers.

Use the numbers and your common sense to reassure yourself. Take precautions but trust that you'll be okay. The reality is we're all more passengers in life than drivers. Whatever happens to us is largely out of our control. We like to think we have control over our lives, but in truth, we're mostly along for the ride. You can do absolutely everything right and have an out of control car run you down.

There are theoretical physicists who will tell you that time is nonlinear and even though we experience it in a linear fashion, it's nonlinear and everything that has ever happened and will ever happen took place in the blink of an eye after the big bang. According to them, we're just experiencing it now, but it was all set in stone, way back then. It's as if we're all characters in a movie on film and what we see as now, is just the frames of the film that capture our life, but we can't change what's on the film. It's all been locked in from long before we ever existed.

If you buy into that belief, then you getting infected or not is out of your control and whatever will happen was decided eons ago. Just do the basics to keep yourself safe and understand that it's highly unlikely you'll get the virus. Even if you get the virus, it's highly unlikely you'll die from it as the vast majority recover. Don't let the fear control you. Control the fear instead. The numbers really aren't that bad when you keep them in perspective.

Now, watch the negative Nellies rush in and say, "But we don't have enough testing to truly know how bad things are! We need more testing!" The numbers we have are the numbers we have. You can't let 'what could be' control you. Even if all of the numbers were doubled or tripled the odds of you meeting someone with the virus and getting infected are still very remote. Control what you can control and accept that there are some things you have no control over and go on with life. There's always going to be something out there that will kill you. No one lives forever. Just live your life while you can and trust in God, fate, yourself, to keep you safe. 

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You DO NOT know what the numbers are because there has not been enough testing so you are basing your whole premise on false numbers! That is not negativity, it is a fact. "There's always going to be something out there that will kill you. No one lives forever. Just live your life while you can and trust in God, fate, yourself, to keep you safe." Really? How about using a little common sense and listening to the medical experts?

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The numbers we have are the numbers we have. The only thing we'd learn from more testing is that the virus is less dangerous than it appears. "That's crazy!" No. Unless you're tripping over unreported dead people, it's reasonable to assume that the number of dead is accurate as are the numbers for the seriously ill and hospitalized. The only way those numbers are inaccurate is if there's a nationwide conspiracy to hide the truth with every government official at every level participating. I tend to think that's not happening. 

So, let's say the number of infected is tenfold or a hundred-fold higher than what's being reported. That reduces the death rate, hospitalization rate, and serious case rate dramatically. The reported numbers as I type this are 712,184 infected with 34,386 dead for a death rate of 4.8%. Let's assume the number of infected is ten times higher and actually 7,121,840. That would make the death rate 0.48%. If the number of infected is a hundred times higher than what's being reported then the death rate drops to 0.048%. 

You can make a reasonable argument the numbers I used in my reply are in fact, the worst-case numbers. The only way they're not is if tens of thousands of deaths are being hidden and that would require a massive conspiracy of unprecedented scale.

That is common sense. That's basic math. I do listen to the experts. I've been secluding myself away. I pointed out in my original post that you can help lessen your risks by doing what the experts say by wearing masks when out. Washing your hands. Avoiding unnecessary contact.

The lack of common sense in this pandemic has reached absurd levels. People think there should have been hundreds of millions of test kits stockpiled, but we didn't even know this virus existed until sometime in December or January. The Chinese refused to let our experts from the CDC into China to study the virus. Test kits were developed in record time. Don't forget that HIV hit this country in 1976. HIV was known and documented by 1981. The first HIV test didn't get developed until 1985. Over four years after the virus was known and more than nine years after it arrived here. We're less than five months into this pandemic and have test kits already out and being used in large quantities with more coming by the day.

There's no way to develop a test for a virus until you know the virus exists. There's no way to have a massive stockpile of hundreds of millions of tests until you know what you're testing for. To be just a few months in and have the resources we already have is frankly unprecedented. Find me a time when we've responded better to a threat. You can't because we've never responded better to a threat. The mobilization to deal with this is unprecedented.

Now, you're going to hate this and call me all kinds of bad names, but the facts are the facts. The numbers we have are the numbers we have and they're arguably the worst-case scenario regarding the death rate and serious complication rate. Barring a massive conspiracy among every government official at the local, state, and federal levels, more testing would only reveal that the virus is less dangerous than is currently being reported. More testing showing more infected would simply mean the virus is less deadly. It's common sense and basic math.

The post I was replying to was, how to deal with the fear. The numbers are how you deal with fear. Instead of trying to stoke more fear, I'm trying to reassure people. If the numbers of infected are much higher then it means the death risk, hospitalization rate, and serious complication rate are much lower. I find that to be more of a reason for optimism than pessimism.