Community Chat

[JaneMarple]

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@Imadickens wrote:

@JaneMarple I caught the end of the report but I thought it showed Florida ready for a direct hit Tuesday (?) . Even with the cone of error, Fl. gets a direct hit! Hopefully, if it hits other places first, it won't still be Cat 5! I pray it doesn't harm anyone, but not holding out much hope!

My dad is buried in NC and during Andrew,(I think!) the caskets all came floating up out of the ground and ended up in the middle of roads! Thankfully, we were never told he was one! I pray that should be the worst of the storm!

Oh my goodness how awful for you and your family to have that worry. I hope this storm goes out to sea after it leaves the Caribbean.

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[MyGirlsMom]

To everyone in the coastal states, please stay safe. The meteorologists still don't know the path it will take once it leaves the Caribbean.  Gulf Coast States or eastern Sea board States. 

[Noel7]

@JaneMarple

Thanks for mentioning this, I've been worried about it, also.  I sure hope it doesn't pick up more power.

Thinking of all in the path!

[MyGirlsMom]

I spoke with my friend in Jamaica, Matthew has switched course and they've avoided a direct hit. phewww

Now let's see what happens with mainland U.S. 

[JaneMarple]

All Americans in Haiti and The Bahamas are being asked to evacuate the countries as a precaution.

[CatsyCline]

here is the graphic updated 5:00 PM EDT

[CatsyCline]

Discussion:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 022038
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,
Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance.  The
eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more
distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a
bit more symmetric.  Consistent with these changes, observations
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some
strengthening has taken place.  The advisory intensity is set
to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed
surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew
should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone
moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in
intensity.  However, interactions with land should cause some
weakening during the next couple of days.  Aside from that, some
fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model
consensus.

Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,
but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is
northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt.  The track forecast
reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.
Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.
Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north
of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left.  In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier.  The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

[MyGirlsMom]

If Matthew stays in course, Florida and the Carolinas are in danger.

[cherry]

I am praying the storm heads out to sea

[conlt]

I am in north east Florida. The 6 PM news just said they don't know if we will be hit or not. It is still too early to tell. The storm did not make the turn as fast as they thought that it would yesterday. I bought enough water yesterday for me, mom, and my animals. I am praying we are spared this storm but very concerned for the people who are affected, especially Jamaica and Haiti right now.