Community Chat

[gardenman]

Covid-19 really hasn't spread like it was assumed it would spread. If each person infected simply gave it to one other person each day everyone would have been infected by day 35. That's the exponential spread epidemiologists fear. We're over 150 days in now and about two million Americans (out of 320+ million) have or have had Covid-19 that we're aware of. Maybe a whole lot more had it and had no symptoms, maybe ten, twenty times as many or more, but if true that makes Covid-19 that much less dangerous as we know how many it killed. A tenfold increase in those who'd been infected would decrease the death rate tenfold. We'd go from a death rate of less than six percent to one of less than six-tenths of a percent. 

The only truly solid number we have is the number of deaths. We don't truly know the number of those infected. We know the minimum number of those infected based on the tests that have been done, but antibody testing on random populations in LA and NYC showed between 20-25% could have antibodies. And those tests were done a month or so ago so the number could be higher now. Since we don't truly know the number of people who were asymptomatic and have recovered, the current death rate can be assumed to be the worst-case number. If the number of people who got Covid-19 but were completely asymptomatic is much higher, then the death rate from Covid-19 could end up being comparable to the death rate from the flu.

The number of new cases confirmed by testing is now typically between 16,000 and 25,000 per day, which is well down from the early April numbers of 30,000+ per day, and we're doing three to four times the number of tests these days that we were doing in April. Testing more people and getting fewer positive tests is a sign that the situation is coming under control.

[Pook]

Also, sounds like some just want to interpret/hear what justifies not sociala distancing or wearing masks and going back to  crowds, etc, !!  Someone can be contageous 4-5 days before showing symptoms so precautions are still necessary at this point.

[Greeneyedlady21]

If asymptomatic spread isn't real and happening, then I'd love to know how the worst spread is happening in nursing homes and other care facilities.

With no visitors allowed, temperature and other symptom checks of employees, and routine testing of employees and residents (if they're doing what they're supposed to be doing). Employees are lying and going to work when they have symptoms and spreading it? Residents have symptoms and they're not being isolated and distanced? Staff isn't wearing proper PPE? All of the above?

I've seen many posts here against the WHO, because of what someone said about them. But now they are to be believed? 

This virus was only known about a few months ago. Even though now it could have possibly existed in China last October if you go by the story about symptoms that people were Googling there. I know some people think we should know everything about it or something nefarious is going on, but that's just not how science works regarding novel viruses.

Look up what happened with HIV, if you don't remember.

[gardenman]

Regarding nursing homes and the spread of Covid-19. Nursing homes are typically sealed environments with recirculated air and residents living in close contact with one another. Nursing home staff often cluster residents together so fewer staff members can monitor more residents, especially during mealtimes. In NY, nursing homes were specifically prohibited from testing returning residents for Covid-19 which meant they were dumped in with everyone else. Colds, flu, and diseases like Covid-19 typically run rampant in nursing homes.

Most of the members of my family (grandfather, grandmother, mother (on multiple occasions for rehab), brother, and father) have been in nursing homes either as residents or on rehab assignments. It was fairly typical to find them parked in a wheelchair in a common area, wheel to wheel with multiple other residents so that just one or two staffers could keep an eye on thirty or more residents at a time.

Even a mildly infectious agent in such an environment can run wild. Nursing homes by their very nature are disease factories. (Much as public schools are for children.) Take a lot of people and put them in a small confined space, and you've created a problem. When they're people with weakened immune systems and other health issues, well, it's even worse.

The nursing home my family members were in would during cold/flu outbreaks require taking the temperature of every guest and some health questions being answered before being allowed into the facility. It was often locking the barn door after the horse had escaped as the nonstop coughing and sneezing from residents made it clear that the virus was already there.

[Stray]

That has not been the experience in N Jersey. We lead in Covid-19 testing nationally. Our statistics do not support the WHO “theory”. My own friends were asymptomatic or very mild that passed in a day. I’ve lost 4 friends who did not exhibit symptoms until they were in the final stages. There is a pre clinical or prodromal period in most communicable diseases where they are contagious. How would you determine those factors? They in fact are silent carriers. The answer social distancing and masks in the presence of an out of control outbreak with no therapy, no cure, no vaccine and a high death toll. A new virus highly virulent and highly contagious that targets high risk citizens. They had it right. It doesn’t matter about the “rarity”. They are playing games with words. Children were supposed to be almost immune from the disease but here in NJ, we are seeing PIMS. Most parents would rush their kids to a pediatrician if sick but they don’t display severe symptoms at first or the same as adults but they do spread the disease. We’ve had two young teachers die in our town under 30 from seemingly well children. I find the WHO statement dangerous and no agency tracks disease globally better than the CDC. Countries that contained the virus early and quicker were even more austere with measures. Didn’t the WHO say masks weren’t necessary but retracted that statement a couple of weeks ago and told us to wear masks? It’s so simple to do and I don’t really see it to be an imposition to possibly save my life and that of others

[Greeneyedlady21]

@Stray I agree with you

[Stray]

They do spread the disease. Before your symptoms are evident, there is a prodromal phase where you are contagious. This is in ALL contagious disease. This virus is particularly contagious as no human had it before. You will not know the person had coronavirus so they are silent carriers. Look at the death toll. Do you really think people would go near a sick person during an outbreak?; the majority of contact was with asymptomatic people who unknowingly had the disease. You also have to look at societal factors. People with mild illness would go to work because many would be unpaid if they don’t work. So business had to shut down. Transit in NYC is a Petri dish. They did the right thing as painful as it was/is.

[gardenman]

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@Stray wrote:
They do spread the disease. Before your symptoms are evident, there is a prodromal phase where you are contagious. This is in ALL contagious disease. This virus is particularly contagious as no human had it before. You will not know the person had coronavirus so they are silent carriers. Look at the death toll. Do you really think people would go near a sick person during an outbreak?; the majority of contact was with asymptomatic people who unknowingly had the disease. You also have to look at societal factors. People with mild illness would go to work because many would be unpaid if they don’t work. So business had to shut down. Transit in NYC is a Petri dish. They did the right thing as painful as it was/is.

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Not to nitpick, but I suspect that some populations have had this before. The relatively low rate of infection in India suggests they may have been exposed at some point in the past and developed a resistance that was passed down. Most epidemiologists consider India to be a likely hotbed in a pandemic and it's been anything but a hotbed for Covid-19. Why not? Luck? Were they that much more effective at containment? My suspicion is they had previous exposure to it and developed and passed down resistance to it. We'll find out more later on, but don't be shocked to hear that in the future.

Covid-19 has just devastated many modern countries where you'd expect it to be more easily contained but has largely bypassed some countries where you'd expect it to spread like wild. I'm kind of betting this isn't the first time it's been around. It's just the first time it's been identified and become widespread.

Many Northern Europeans and their descendants carry a genetic variation called CCR5 Delta 32 that makes them largely immune to smallpox, black plague, and HIV. If I had to guess, I'd guess Indians had a genetic variation of some sort that protects them from Covid-19 that they picked up from an earlier encounter with it or a closely related virus. We'll learn more over the next few months or years, but if you look at the numbers, that seems to be the indication.

[pigletsmom]

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@on the bay wrote:

@GrailSeeker -

I heard that too and if true it is encouraging.

But then I wonder so how come so many people get it from people who don't have symptoms. I don't know.

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I think part of this issue is that a lot of people will say they didn't know anyone who was sick which doesn't mean they weren't around anyone. Especially in someplace like NYC. You can say you don't know anyone and then be on a crowded subway with someone who coughs near you.

And I think the fact that they say rare is interesting. It probably is rare in normal life. Walking by someone in the grocery store with no symptoms like coughing or sneezing and you're probably fine. I think a lot of the case based on no or little symptoms are more close contact. One of the early cases in NJ was an entire family that went to family dinner. Another was a funeral or wake. A lot of places where hugging and kissing happen. A lot of hand shaking. So that runny nose you had all winter and didn't think much of could have been more as you greeted everyone.

Honestly I've never understood the weird idea that this virus has some super duper way of spreading over any other respiratory virus. It still spreads on droplets.

[gardenman]

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@gardenman wrote:

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@Stray wrote:
They do spread the disease. Before your symptoms are evident, there is a prodromal phase where you are contagious. This is in ALL contagious disease. This virus is particularly contagious as no human had it before. You will not know the person had coronavirus so they are silent carriers. Look at the death toll. Do you really think people would go near a sick person during an outbreak?; the majority of contact was with asymptomatic people who unknowingly had the disease. You also have to look at societal factors. People with mild illness would go to work because many would be unpaid if they don’t work. So business had to shut down. Transit in NYC is a Petri dish. They did the right thing as painful as it was/is.

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Not to nitpick, but I suspect that some populations have had this before. The relatively low rate of infection in India suggests they may have been exposed at some point in the past and developed a resistance that was passed down. Most epidemiologists consider India to be a likely hotbed in a pandemic and it's been anything but a hotbed for Covid-19. Why not? Luck? Were they that much more effective at containment? My suspicion is they had previous exposure to it and developed and passed down resistance to it. We'll find out more later on, but don't be shocked to hear that in the future.

Covid-19 has just devastated many modern countries where you'd expect it to be more easily contained but has largely bypassed some countries where you'd expect it to spread like wild. I'm kind of betting this isn't the first time it's been around. It's just the first time it's been identified and become widespread.

Many Northern Europeans and their descendants carry a genetic variation called CCR5 Delta 32 that makes them largely immune to smallpox, black plague, and HIV. If I had to guess, I'd guess Indians had a genetic variation of some sort that protects them from Covid-19 that they picked up from an earlier encounter with it or a closely related virus. We'll learn more over the next few months or years, but if you look at the numbers, that seems to be the indication.

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Just to follow up on the numbers, the death rate in India is 2.7% Globally it's 5.7%. In the US it's 5.6%. In NJ it's 7.4%. In Italy it's 14.4%. In the UK it's 14%. In Spain it's 9.39%. You determine the death rate by dividing the number of people killed by the number confirmed infected and multiplying the result by 100. If there's less testing and fewer confirmed cases, it increases the death rate. Those saying India hasn't done as much testing means that if they tested more their death rate would decrease. 

For example, if only ten people tested positive and nine of them die, the death rate is 90%. If a hundred people tested positive and the same nine died the death rate is 9%. If a thousand have been tested and found positive and the same nine died the death rate is 0.9%. By and large, in most of the world, we know how many people have died. It's very hard to hide dead people. That makes the current death rates the worst-case scenario in each country. The worst-case number for India (assuming the death toll is accurate) is 2.7%. That's a whole lot better than it is for pretty much everyone else. And that's their worst-case scenario number. There's something going on in India that's not happening elsewhere and I'm guessing it's a genetic advantage of some sort that's been passed down over the centuries.