Community Chat

[Trinity11]

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@hckynut wrote:

@Trinity11 

Listen to the "experts"? Yes. Follow and do everything they say? No. It has been shown many times over that the some of the "experts", go by the old saying:

"Do what I say, not as I do"

hckynut 🏒

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@hckynut I know of no legitimate scientific expert who is "doing their own thing. " Maybe politicians but not reputable scientists.

[Isobel Archer]

I'm still confused about how we managed to get through the Hong Kong flu that killed over 100,000 at a time when our population was less than 2/3 the size it is now (200 mil vs. 328 mil today).  We even had Woodstock in the middle of it.

We didn't shut down and stop other people from getting medical care.

You know we have more than 38,000 people dying of auto accidents per year - and over 4.4 million injured seriously enough to require medical attention - many will never fully recover.

So what does that have to do with this?  I'll tell you.  If we reduced the speed limit - and strictly enforced it - signficantly, we could reduce the number and seriousness of injuries and certainly reduce deaths.  We could limit speed on freeways to 30mph and in cities to 10 mph.  Oh you say, that is ridiculous - and certainly way too inconvenient.  What?  You don't care about human life?  You are selfishly wanting to get where you are going quickly? 

Oh wait - you are now going to tell me that this would essentially shut us down and no one would really benefit.

Hello.

[haddon9]

Unfortunatley a lot of people don't want to hear this.  They are excited that their states are opening salons & restaurants.  They think that because these places will be opening that it is a sign that it is now safe.  I think it's a sign that the second wave will be stronger than the first.

[jeanlake]

My health is better than hubs' health so we both wear masks in public. We're in our 60s. I wear gloves the few times I go inside stores and while pumping gas. It will be that way until we determine we can be more relaxed. We stay informed. Public restrooms are off limits unless emergency. I do as much online ordering from stores as possible. I'll wait a bit before I gather in church or dine inside restaurants, although we do order take out. We've cancelled two trips for 2020. We're not living in fear. We're being careful for ourselves and 3 generations of family we connect with from ages 90 years to 20 months.

When people tighten their jaws and clinch their fists, they are quick to hurl insults and speak in defensive terms such as black/white -- them/us -- political parties -- even religion gets pulled into the frey. 

Thank you for posting this information. It was informative.          

[Drythe]

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@germanshepherdlove wrote:

While I love the spirited people on this debate, I have to agree with @Trinity11 and @pitdakota .  I have a question though about herd immunity. Is it possible that the spirited folks will end up saving humanity.  Isn't that what many scientists say that it's only through herd immunity will covid 19 burn out because it won't be able to find a host.   

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@germanshepherdlove @Trinity11  @pitdakota 

Epidemiologists use a factor known as - R-0, or R - naught.  You might want to read about it, it is how they measure infection rates.

In order to reach heard immunity we would have to reach a situation where over  >70% of the population had true antibodies.  Imagine the death rate, and we’re moving way past the death of ‘just old expendable folks’ to get there.

I love facts.

[NicksmomESQ]

I think we can slowly re open in phases. If we practice common sense social distancing we should be okay. Look, nothing is perfect.But at some point we have to reopen or we will not have an economy.
  If our economy collapses no one will have a job.We won't eat or receive any kind of medical care.There will be chaos & lawlessness.That's not the kind of world anyone would benefit from.

  We need strong & steady leadership.

[QueenDanceALot]

I guess it makes sense to listen to random people on a message board about issues they aren't educated in but not to those whose life's work has been those issues.

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Lipstickdiva]

Something with this article isn't clicking with me.  

Why are we ignorning nursing homes? Is that to help his theories?  

He lists the biggest super spreading events but then goes on to talk about what can happen in those scenarios and starts off with restaurants.  People were going to restaurants before everything was shut down yet that's not included as a super spreading event so why is that all of a sudden on the top of his list?  

I still think how cautious or afraid of this depends on where you live.  In Ohio, the reported data is not supporting the models. The percentage of the population of those who have tested positive for this in Ohio is .002%.  .05% of those who tested positive have died from it.  

[Mindy D]

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@Isobel Archer wrote:

I'm still confused about how we managed to get through the Hong Kong flu that killed over 100,000 at a time when our population was less than 2/3 the size it is now (200 mil vs. 328 mil today).  We even had Woodstock in the middle of it.

We didn't shut down and stop other people from getting medical care.

You know we have more than 38,000 people dying of auto accidents per year - and over 4.4 million injured seriously enough to require medical attention - many will never fully recover.

So what does that have to do with this?  I'll tell you.  If we reduced the speed limit - and strictly enforced it - signficantly, we could reduce the number and seriousness of injuries and certainly reduce deaths.  We could limit speed on freeways to 30mph and in cities to 10 mph.  Oh you say, that is ridiculous - and certainly way too inconvenient.  What?  You don't care about human life?  You are selfishly wanting to get where you are going quickly? 

Oh wait - you are now going to tell me that this would essentially shut us down and no one would really benefit.

Hello.

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@Isobel Archer @Hi. I had HK flu. I was the sickest I have ever been. I was 17 and I didn't even tell my parents how sick I had become. They knew I had the flu but I don't think they realized I was as ill as I was. Same went for my boyfriend. He was also ill. I don't think this flu was very contagious. I don't know the RO ratio for the HK flu, but I bet that when I check into it it will be lower than COVID-19.  Neither my parents or my boyfriends parents came down with this virus. Perhaps they had crossover immunity from a closely related flu they had earlier in their lives. My sibling and my BF's sibling did not get sick either. I was sick for over two weeks. One huge difference with HK flu was the short incubation period and the much lower cases of asymptomatic carriers. Once sick, I knew it. I couldn't move. I was home. Pretty sure mine had developed a pneumonia but I'm not sure. So, to answer your question, I think the way the HK flu spread influenced our ability to keep things open. People knew they were sick and stayed home. With COVID-29, people can be out spreading the virus.

[pitdakota]

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@Lipstickdiva wrote:

Something with this article isn't clicking with me.  

Why are we ignorning nursing homes? Is that to help his theories?  

He lists the biggest super spreading events but then goes on to talk about what can happen in those scenarios and starts off with restaurants.  People were going to restaurants before everything was shut down yet that's not included as a super spreading event so why is that all of a sudden on the top of his list?  

I still think how cautious or afraid of this depends on where you live.  In Ohio, the reported data is not supporting the models. The percentage of the population of those who have tested positive for this in Ohio is .002%.  .05% of those who tested positive have died from it.  

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@Lipstickdiva, a super spreader is just a loose common term that describes an individual that is responsible for infecting a larger number of people than is expected for a particular infectious disease.   For example, there is a super spreader that wasa guy from the UK, that they traced 11 infections in 3 different countries directly back to him.  He was on business trips while infectious.  All 11 infections traced back directly to him.  The infection rate for this virus as they think now is 2.  So one person infects another 2 people, those 2 people each infect another 2, leading to a total of 7 people very quickly.   Not all 7 may have had any contact with the initial person at all.  A super spreader has direct contact with the individuals infected & is technically called the index patient or individual.

 What has been happening in nursing homes is that the virus is being brought in by several different people from the outside and passing it on to the residents.  Then another resident gets it and spreads it to another resident.  So that is not considered a super spreader, per se but is community transmission.   It is problematic because for a period of time, people are contagious without really even knowing anything is wrong with them. 

Nursing homes have multiple people working, nursing assistants, LPNs, cleaning staff, managers, social workers, dietary people, etc.  Those individuals bring the virus in, transmits it to someone else, maybe even another resident, then it spreads between residents before they know it.  

Many long term care facilities have cut down on recreational activities, no more bingo or community dining but it is still very difficult to keep the residents totally apart.  Plus they are in a confined space with the same ventilation system so the principle is the same as the air that is in a restaurant, or office space, etc.   The reason the  resturant situation is mentioned is because it is a certain instance in which they were able to directly trace the contact and map out the air pattern in the resturant that demonstrated how the people at the other tables became infected.