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@Cakers3 wrote:

@Noel7 wrote:

@Laura14 wrote:


@Lipstickdiva wrote:


@Laura14 wrote:

And yet we never hear any of this in all the years we don't have natural disasters so close together.  

 

Worry not.  When someone upstairs wants you, they'll take you even if a house has to fall on you to do it.    


The point scientists are making and why it is being talked about is because these events are occurring now like never before.

 

In the program I watched, they said scientists have been keeping track of temps since the late 1800's.  I believe 1880 but I'm not 100% on that year.  8 of of the hottest years on record have occurred over the last 10 years.    


@Lipstickdiva  With all due respect to the scientific community, having been through a hurricane, when someone tells me they have Mother Nature all figured out, two initials B and S come to mind.  

 

They can have nice temp records but extrapolating that into cause and effect of complex weather patterns is a bit of a stretch for me.  They can't even tell me if it's going to rain outside my house with complete certainity on any given day.  Do that first and then I'll believe they have the bigger stuff figured out as well.    


 

Doing something else first will make it too late to have much of an effect.

 

The tipping point has already come, faster than anticipated.







@Noel7  I mentioned (last week?) in response to a poster who kept saying that scientist were being proven wrong-yet Stephen Hawking just gave a symposium in July and said that we are getting to the point of no return.

 

I asked if he had been proven "wrong" but the crickets took over.


 

I read a bit about Hawking's conclusion @Cakers3. Coming from him, it's ominous, imo.

 

 

 

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@Laura14 wrote:

@Noel7  I believe the temperature records. I do not believe they are the cause of a lot of hurricanes in one year.  

 

Think about it.  If that was absolutely true, FL would be run over every year not just every 8-10.  

 

I am not leaving my common sense at the door just because someone with a science degree says I should.  PROVE IT and I'll jump on board.  They won't do it in my lifetime.

 

The scientists can't because they don't have enough data over enough time to say with certainty why some years are more active with storms than others.  

 

And never forget the other person's agenda.  Scientists do nothing without grant money.  They get a lot of it when people get whipped up on an idea that shows promise like global warming theories.  

 

By the way, didn't the MIdwest have one of its coldest winters ever two years ago?  I notice this conversation never comes up during harsh winters or less active storm seasons.  And that's my point.  No one really knows and a good scientist should be man or woman enough to say it.     


@Laura14Wrong again. 

 

As I noted earlier we have had plenty of discussions about less active storm seasons and below average cold temps in the winter.

 

The topic will crop up again as soon as winter starts.  It always does-and usually by some malcontent itching to prove everyone else "wrong" about global warming/climate change.

 

I've been here 10 years and I have always had good discussions about this topic be it spring, summer, winter, fall, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, ice melting-choice is yours.

 

Stick around.

""But tell me where do the children play"-Cat Stevens
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@pitdakota wrote:

@Laura14 wrote:

@Noel7  I believe the temperature records. I do not believe they are the cause of a lot of hurricanes in one year.  

 

Think about it.  If that was absolutely true, FL would be run over every year not just every 8-10.  

 

I am not leaving my common sense at the door just because someone with a science degree says I should.  PROVE IT and I'll jump on board.  They won't do it in my lifetime.

 

The scientists can't because they don't have enough data over enough time to say with certainty why some years are more active with storms than others.  

 

And never forget the other person's agenda.  Scientists do nothing without grant money.  They get a lot of it when people get whipped up on an idea that shows promise like global warming theories.  

 

By the way, didn't the MIdwest have one of its coldest winters ever two years ago?  I notice this conversation never comes up during harsh winters or less active storm seasons.  And that's my point.  No one really knows and a good scientist should be man or woman enough to say it.     


______________________________________________________

@Laura14 

Predictive science is always harder and uncertain than science that takes a retrospective look at correlations.  For example, I can look back at medical records of 100,000 patients that died due to a heart attack and probably identify a cadre of factors that correlate leading to death from a heart attack.  Then one can identify risk factors from those studies.  But it doesn't mean that every single person with those risk factors will die of a heart attack.  But it does mean that those factors have a fairly high correleation coefficient to say there is a strong risk that if these factors are there then one is at risk of situation A occuring is substantially higher.

 

One common misconception  about any global warming is that there will not be rough or brutal winters.   Warmer ocean temps causes increased evaporation of ocean water.  The temp of the evaportation actually causes the "air" to expand if you will due to heat and increased moisture.  That in turn is then circulated via current air mass systems over the earth.  When it circulates over a colder land mass it leads to more snow, etc...which chills the land mass further.  Furthermore, moisture from that snow evaporates into circulation in that particular land mass and can result in more snow somewhere else. But the snow would not have occurred if it weren't for the moisture from ocean evaporation from thousands of miles away.    

 

So increase ocean temps results in increased evaporation which increases moisture in the air leading to increased snowfall in some areas.  Snow in and of itself will cause lower land temps, the snow evaporates, leading to more moisture aloft to be carried somewhere else.  An expanded snow blanket in any area with cause lower air temps.

 

I can't remember the stats, but the vast majority of all rainfall that occurs is due to evaporation that takes place over an ocean or uptake from a significant rainfall somewhere else.  So even when we have rain here in Ky. on a nice summer day....the moisture aloft is usually associated with ocean evaporation (in Ky. probably from the Gulf of Mexico)  along with an air circulation that moves the system over the state. 

 

I believe NOAA is doing quite a bit of work with developing a water vapor computer model to help "predict", but to also really research patterns of water vapor and other associated factors. 


@pitdakota  Thank you.  You have much more patience typing that out than I have right now.  LOL

""But tell me where do the children play"-Cat Stevens
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@OfCourse wrote:

We did have a dozen years without bad hurricanes, though, or at least that's what I saw on the news.  Oddly, only CNN is covering the Puerto Rico hurricane.  Prayers for the people in its path.


@OfCourse???  Even our local station is devoting segments to this.  I guess the personnel at the Weather Center took the week off.

 

 

""But tell me where do the children play"-Cat Stevens
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Re: Disaster strikes again

[ Edited ]

@Cakers3 wrote:

@Laura14 wrote:

@goldensrbest wrote:

@Laura14 wrote:

And yet we never hear any of this in all the years we don't have natural disasters so close together.  

 

Worry not.  When someone upstairs wants you, they'll take you even if a house has to fall on you to do it.    


I am not sure that is always the case,i use to think that but now question it.


@goldensrbest  I personally believe scientist take their best guess but it's still a guess.  The longer I live, the more I see them change their mind about stuff they were so certain about years before.  Ooops.  Smiley Very Happy

 

 


@Laura14  Do you have specific scientists in mind who have flip-flopped on the issue?

 

If not, your point is........pointless.


@Cakers3While you are on your critique run, make sure you address the right person and really read who posted what.   And I would hope you would actually consider another point of view and not just defend your own.  

 

Whole point of my presence in this thread.

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@tansy wrote:

Some people's *common sense* is going to kill us all😕

 

Better to prepare than not.


@tansy

 

 

 

""But tell me where do the children play"-Cat Stevens
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@Laura14 wrote:

And if a scientist began to believe that the prevailing theory may be incorrect, how would he or she be treated? Think about it. Probably a lot like this with their reputation discredited and hard up for funding. It is in everyone's best interest to make sure it's okay for someone anyone to say we know more now and the theory needs to change. Don't blindly follow the cause celeb of the decade. Understand everyone's motivation and agendas. Open eyes and minds both ways is truly my only point here.


@Laura14  You do not understand that there isn't just ONE theory-that the issue is made up of many components and each scientific field deals with specific issues.

 

THEN the compilation of various findings are submitted in a cohesive unit.

 

I would also suggest that some a blindly following deniers just as you claim some blindly follow the "cause celeb".

 

This isn't about following the Kardashians; this issue isn't a "cause celeb"-it's been around for decades.

""But tell me where do the children play"-Cat Stevens
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Re: Disaster strikes again

[ Edited ]

@Cakers3Reread my posts or actually read them and then refer back to my last one.  It's all I have to say.  

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Puerto Rico has been in dire financial straits for some time.  I have a feeling the cost for cleaning up the hurricane mess will fall on the US.  They are 100%  without electricity. 

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