Community Chat

[Mindy D]

According to the latest track, it apppears that most of Florida will be dodging the bullet. It is still necessary keep following all weather updates.  Top models are as of 1:36 and bottom models are as of 12, but models are updated a couple of hours following latest advisory. The 1 P.M advisory model will soon be posted. Head of Hurricane Center was interviewed and said that 1 P.M. advisory was looking good.

According to the latest track, it apppears that most of Florida will be dodging the bullet. It is still necessary keep following all weather updates.  

[ItsME]

YAY!!!   I was supposed to fly in to south FL today, but (at some cost) pushed it out two weeks.  Still, better safe than sorry.  

[MaryLamb]

This is what the European model was saying days ago. It seems like that model is always correct.

[conlt]

I live in NE Florida and we are still advised to watch the storm. I thought I was going to evacuate but now, thankfully, it looks like I will not. I spent all week getting water, canned foods, gas etc. Preparing is very stressful so I am probably going to take a nap now and then look at the 5 PM update from National Hurricane Center. I am very thankful the storm has turned and hope it just goes out to sea and does not hurt anyone in the US. I do feel sorry for the Bahamas though. 

[Mindy D]

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@MaryLamb wrote:

This is what the European model was saying days ago. It seems like that model is always correct.

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Hi MaryLamb. Models continually change based on other weather factors. You have to look at the most updated models to get any real meaning from them. There’s an area of high pressure to the north of Florida. That area can press on Dorian and steer it, keeping it southward, eastward or westward. I was worried until today. Lucky for us, this high hasn’t had the impact it could have had, so the storm is not moving as far westward, and it’s not staying south. YAY. This storm will be almost a Cat 5. It could even become a Cat 5. There’s almost home that can withstand a Cat 5. By definition, a Cat 5, 157 mph winds, results in total devastation. Cat 4s are no picnic either. Stay safe.

[wildcat fan]

?

The reports I've looked at in the last 30 minutes say it could make landfall along the coast around Wilmington, NC.  We are preparing here in South Carolina.  

[gabstoomuch]

I don't think anyone should be getting too comfortable. This storm is crawling, and shifting. The Weather Center is trying their best but this storm is massive.

If it shifts in any small way, it changes who gets impacted. It is still days away. They are trying to forecast a storm that is not even going to hit until Monday, then it will crawl up the coast all the way through Thursday.

I get concerned that people will get complacent and think they will not get it. Maybe not, maybe not the direct hit, but the size of it leaves the east coast line up for tons of rain and still possible damaging winds.

[Mindy D]

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@gabstoomuch wrote:

I don't think anyone should be getting too comfortable. This storm is crawling, and shifting. The Weather Center is trying their best but this storm is massive.

If it shifts in any small way, it changes who gets impacted. It is still days away. They are trying to forecast a storm that is not even going to hit until Monday, then it will crawl up the coast all the way through Thursday.

I get concerned that people will get complacent and think they will not get it. Maybe not, maybe not the direct hit, but the size of it leaves the east coast line up for tons of rain and still possible damaging winds.

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All have been warned that this is the track that is CURRENTLY showing. No one should be complacent. These tracts are based on up to date weather data which yields these models. As the data changes things could change. Everyone should keep their eyes on the reports and data. Tonight’s 11 PM advisory will result in updated models about two hours later. These models will be more reliable than the current models I’ve posted. Weather is a dynamic phenomena. Ongoing observation is key. The probability that things will go the way the models depict is  good but is not 100% certain. 

[millieshops]

@Mindy DI just came back in yhe house after a long lunch and a quick stop at the supermarket.   Right before I left, Cantore was reporting the track was looking to be offshore, but he did not take Miami and my part of SE Florida out of the possible coastal flooding area.  

Was that also announced as no longer true also?

[Mindy D]

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@millieshops wrote:

@Mindy DI just came back in yhe house after a long lunch and a quick stop at the supermarket.   Right before I left, Cantore was reporting the track was looking to be offshore, but he did not take Miami and my part of SE Florida out of the possible coastal flooding area.  

Was that also announced as no longer true also?

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Coastal flooding is not a part of this track, however, the next ADVISORY will probably speak to flooding. There’s a 5:00 P.M. Advisory. Then an 8:00 P.M. and an 11:00 P.M. possibility of flooding due to rain, this is usually mentioned in advisories. If you are talking about storm surge, that’s usually mentioned along with the hurricane’s position relative to shore. If the hurricane is far out to sea there’s not much to worry about. If it is coming ashore, then storm surge is a bigger problem. This is an abbreviated discussion from NOA from 11:00 A.M.

LATEST FULL ADVISORY AS OF 3:00 P.M.

WTNT25 KNHC 311455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  73.4W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  73.4W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N  74.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N  76.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N  77.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 30.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  73.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA