Community Chat

[KatieB]

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@caroln242 wrote:

I really don't understand the statistics given for new cases of COVID in my county.  One graph shows we're still getting a thousand new cases a day and another shows 404 new cases in the last 15 days.  And this is on the same webpage.  I've always been a little skeptical of the numbers I've seen for my county.  If these numbers are right, just about half the population should have the virus, and I don't know one single person in my county who's had it.  It seems I would have heard of someone I know, or at least know of, who's had it. 

Just wondering how accurate these statistics really are and if anyone else sees this kind of disparity in their county statistics.

(Please don't start a war over this.  I'm just wondering about statistics.)

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Sounds like you're reading the information incorrectly.  All the information I've seen makes sense.

[Beguile]

Finally....people are starting to wake up.  

[Skezeldog]

And i do not believe that we have had NO FLU this year, please, they have monkeyed with the numbers from day one.  

[gidgetgh]

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@Dusty1 wrote:

@caroln242 That is my greatest frustration.

We are told all of these horrific statistics & numbers & stories of a worldwide catastrophic pandemic.

It has been going on for a year.

We are not seeing it that way.

My husband & my son have continued to work throughout & meet people from all over, from all different jobs & life experiences. Real people are not reflecting the stories that we are reading/hearing about.

Companies of all types are doing business every day, from delivery services to groceries, to regular stores, to dental & doctor offices, to salons & I have heard of none of them shutting down due to staff being totally decimated by the pandemic.

That is a lot of people being in daily contact with other people.

I would say that 75% of the people that we know have not had covid or covid symptons.

Of the 25% that have had covid, including me & my husband, had very mild symptons that lasted 2-3 days.

And, yet the stories continue.

Weddings, holidays, travel, concerts, etc continue to be canceled because of fear.

You can't argue with it. You can't deny it's as bad as the stories are telling us that it is, because....I don't know exactly why...

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@Dusty1 - not arguing at all.  Just adding what I've seen here lately. 

After not knowing anyone who even had Covid this entire time, 4 people I personally know have died from it since late November.  4.  Yikes. 

I went to my local bank branch on Saturday.  I haven't been well so my sister drove me.  Entire branch is closed until March 12th because of Covid. Don't know if several employees got it or were in direct contact and they're quarantining, but the entire branch is closed until the 12th.

edited to add- my best friend (out of state) texted me about 3 minutes ago. She tested positive Tuesday. Asymptomatic so far.  

Her brother and his wife, local to me, are recovering from very serious cases of it now.  The wife was hospitalized for several days.  He has missed 4 weeks of work.

[eadu4]

Yeah I think we can all agree there is some degree of sketchy in all the numbers related to this.  For those that will lecture that "this is how they are counted and they have to do it like that" I say pfffft.  They can count "cases, positives, tests" how ever they want to.  Multiple positives from a person having to retest during their quarantine-how are they counting those?  Is each one a new positive?  Is each one a new clinical active infection with symptoms?  Where do the asymptomatic come into this?  No one will ever know the exact count of survivors-those that had it, stayed home and were fine.   Does anyone really believe in checks and balances at this point?  You can pretty much find a statistic/article that will support whatever position you want out there if you search enough.  And that would be why some people are more hesitant than others and some people are more outgoing through this.  Distrust is definitely an underlying theme.  And for those that did lose a loved one it's harder since they experienced the worst of this.  Yes people died-no one will dispute that.  But there remains and most likely always will be, how much of a factor the virus played in every one of those deaths.   "They have to correctly code it, they can't change it".  Got news for you in the digital world anything can be fabricated, changed and spoofed.  And yeah there are people that will put what they need to on a document if it saves their job.  Am I cynical?  You bet.    

[caroln242]

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@skatting44 wrote:

   You did not mention your county or state  so, may have  explain in general terms.  Most states counties  list how many new confirmed cases  along with cumulative total for the last year.  Out of the new confirmed cases , many people do not becomeenough to require hospitalization . There is usually listed how many new cases required hospitalization .  The Johns Hopkins web link will provide info for each state and county .

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

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Thanks for the link.  Johns Hopkins webpage is much easier to understand than others I've seen.

[depglass]

The figures we get have been totally revised, not the numbers, but the way they are presented.  I just listen to TV and completely gave up looking on line.  

[RetRN]

I have never believed the stats so have quit following them.

[pitdakota]

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@caroln242 wrote:

I really don't understand the statistics given for new cases of COVID in my county.  One graph shows we're still getting a thousand new cases a day and another shows 404 new cases in the last 15 days.  And this is on the same webpage.  I've always been a little skeptical of the numbers I've seen for my county.  If these numbers are right, just about half the population should have the virus, and I don't know one single person in my county who's had it.  It seems I would have heard of someone I know, or at least know of, who's had it. 

Just wondering how accurate these statistics really are and if anyone else sees this kind of disparity in their county statistics.

(Please don't start a war over this.  I'm just wondering about statistics.)

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@caroln242, it really depends on your state and how your state publishes its stats.  In all states, results of all covid-19 tests are uploaded to a central data base.  However, all states review data & look for repeats then remove those numbers for final reporting.

Some places have had the policy of requiring a negative test before returning to work so those individuals certainly go back to a testing site and are tested again after having initially tested positive & may continue to test positive. 

In that case, the initial numbers reported for a specific 24 period of time will include those tests.  But all states have processes in place to remove repeats so that repeat individuals continuing to test postive are then removed from the data.

There are also cases in which a person may present to the hospital & have positive PCR test but have also have a high CT value (that is getting into the weeds here).  Docs need to evaluate just what the viral load might be in that patient to determine whether the patient needs to be admitted or not.  So they will order a lab draw to assess viral load.

In that case, the same person will initially show in the data for that 24 hour period of time as 2 positive cases, until they are removed from the data as a repeat.

Depending on how states report the data on their website the numbers can look different as they remove repeats from the data.  That could be what you are seeing in what you describe.   

[Meowingkitty]

Someone was telling me that 5 of his firefighter friends and him went in to get a Covid test. They waited and waited until they couldn't wait. They had to go back to work so they never got the test. A few days later they got results that they were all positive.