Community Chat

[caroln242]

I really don't understand the statistics given for new cases of COVID in my county.  One graph shows we're still getting a thousand new cases a day and another shows 404 new cases in the last 15 days.  And this is on the same webpage.  I've always been a little skeptical of the numbers I've seen for my county.  If these numbers are right, just about half the population should have the virus, and I don't know one single person in my county who's had it.  It seems I would have heard of someone I know, or at least know of, who's had it. 

Just wondering how accurate these statistics really are and if anyone else sees this kind of disparity in their county statistics.

(Please don't start a war over this.  I'm just wondering about statistics.)

[Jaspersmom]

Don't have a clue about your county, but could one be the number tested and another be the number of positive cases?  I know many people who get tested but don't turn  out to be positive.  I'm going to check my state's website to see how stats are reported.

[geezerette]

Looking at my state and county numbers is always a bit confusing for me.

They give both the cumulative positive case numbers and the new daily positive numbers.  It's not always immediately apparent which is which.

[skatting44]

   You did not mention your county or state  so, may have  explain in general terms.  Most states counties  list how many new confirmed cases  along with cumulative total for the last year.  Out of the new confirmed cases , many people do not become ill enough to require hospitalization .  Usually , listed  are how many new cases required

hospitalization . 

The Johns Hopkins web link will provide info for each state and county .

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

[Jaspersmom]

I checked my state and county.  The county reports the total number of tests from the very first test last year, then the total number of positive cases from the very first test and the number of positives for a given date (ex. - March 3rd).  Then it's broken down by town.  

[haddon9]

@caroln242 I don't know what could be going on in your county but there is a book on Amazon called, "How to Lie With Statistics". 

It'amazing how easy it is to twist and turn things to be whatever you want the outcome to be.  

[Dusty1]

@caroln242 That is my greatest frustration.

We are told all of these horrific statistics & numbers & stories of a worldwide catastrophic pandemic.

It has been going on for a year.

We are not seeing it that way.

My husband & my son have continued to work throughout & meet people from all over, from all different jobs & life experiences. Real people are not reflecting the stories that we are reading/hearing about.

Companies of all types are doing business every day, from delivery services to groceries, to regular stores, to dental & doctor offices, to salons & I have heard of none of them shutting down due to staff being totally decimated by the pandemic.

That is a lot of people being in daily contact with other people.

I would say that 75% of the people that we know have not had covid or covid symptons.

Of the 25% that have had covid, including me & my husband, had very mild symptons that lasted 2-3 days.

And, yet the stories continue.

Weddings, holidays, travel, concerts, etc continue to be canceled because of fear.

You can't argue with it. You can't deny it's as bad as the stories are telling us that it is, because....I don't know exactly why...

[Meowingkitty]

In our state or numbers are coming down to near 1000 but the deaths keep rising. Some days we have 200+ people dying with 900 cases. We do something called death certificate matching where the go back months and "look" for new causes of deaths. So you could fall off a ladder and die and have Covid in your system and it's ruled a Covid death months later.

[millieshops]

@caroln242   I can't speak for the accuracy of the overall stats. but consider yourself lucky not to know anyone who has had Covid.    I do think it's quite possible you personally don't know anyone yourself.  Of the thousands of cases reported, do keep in mind many of those "victims" are barely victims -  they didn't know they had the disease except that a test showed its presence or the antibodies that are pre4sent afterwards.

Further, some of us know more of what I call the real victims than we wish;  those are the victims who died, the victims who became very ill and reported symptoms far beyond the usual flu yet they did recover, the victims who suffered and continue to suffer aftereffects that don't go away after weeks or months.

Although I know two or more victims in each of the categories I mentioned and am very cautious, I still try to put all the statistics into a framework that makes sense for me --  and that means I take the  numbers and make them into percentages.  Do that, know that some true victims are in those numbers but the suffering is so random lots of people don't know any victims -- and hope you remain one of the lucky.

[ValuSkr]

The local newspaper has a daily graph that's meant to illustrate the COVID problem in surrounding counties.  At best, it's not very good and at worst it's confusing; too much information packed into it.  Nice try by someone in their graphics department but they should go back to the drawing board.