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[Mindy D]

1. 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021524 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Corrected missing word in last sentence Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus model later in the period. As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning. The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida. By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast was required. It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 26.8N 78.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

   82 
   WTNT35 KNHC 021450
   TCPAT5
   
   BULLETIN
   Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  37
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
   1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019
   
   ...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS
   AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD...
   
   
   SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
   -----------------------------------------------
   LOCATION...26.8N 78.3W
   ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
   ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
   PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
   MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES
   
   
   WATCHES AND WARNINGS
   --------------------
   CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
   
   The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the
   east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
   
   The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia
   coast to the Savannah River.
   
   The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
   extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
   
   The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound
   Georgia.
   
   SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
   
   A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
   * Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
   
   A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
   * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
   * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
   
   A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
   * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
   * Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
   
   A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
   * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
   * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia
   
   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
   * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
   
   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
   * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
   * Lake Okeechobee
   
   A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
   inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
   during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
   depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
   Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
   hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
   located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
   protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
   other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
   instructions from local officials.
   
   A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
   threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
   coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
   
   A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
   somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
   property should be rushed to completion.
   
   A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
   within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
   before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
   winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
   dangerous.
   
   A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
   expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
   
   A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
   possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
   
   Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
   should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
   watches may be required later today.
   
   For storm information specific to your area in the United
   States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
   monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
   forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
   outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
   your national meteorological service.
   
   
   DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
   ----------------------
   At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
   located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Dorian is
   moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A slow
   westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
   day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
   north.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
   Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
   today and tonight.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close
   to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
   then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
   on Wednesday night and Thursday.
   
   Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
   gusts.  Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
   Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is
   forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
   the next couple of days.
   
   Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
   center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
   (220 km).
   
   The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).
   
   
   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
   ----------------------
   WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
   Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
   increase after the eye passes.
   
   Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
   in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are
   possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.
   
   Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
   warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
   Storm watch area by tonight.
   
   STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
   by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
   onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
   will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
   should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.
   
   The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
   normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
   moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
   following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
   areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
   
   Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
   North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft
   
   Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
   strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
   waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
   Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
   distances. For information specific to your area, please see
   products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
   office.
   
   RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
   totals through late this week:
   
   Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
   Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
   of 6 inches.
   Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
   Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
   inches, isolated 10 inches.
   
   This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
   
   SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
   and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
   southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
   swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
   conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
   
   TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
   tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.
   
   
   NEXT ADVISORY
   -------------
   Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
   Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
   
   $$
   Forecaster Brown

[Zhills]

Thank you, Mindy.  So sad that so many do not understand this!    They focus on the "eye" and the "cone" with no idea of the reality of a hurricane!

[on the bay]

18-23 feet!

The magnitude of this storm is like a nightmare!

I am learning too about how far the affects are from the eye. I wish everyone could have been evacuated.