topic Re: Weather Forecasts in Community Chat

Weather Forecasts

ScrapHappy — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:17:48 GMT

How accurate are your local weathermen/women? Mine, not very accurate at all. This week they called for heavy rain every day with localized flooding, etc. It didn't rain at ll Monday thru Wednesday. I just got up this morning and we have some drizzle going on. One day I was watching the new/weather and, again, was expecting rain, but then the weatherman said all the storms have gone by and threat is over. Thirty minutes later the skies opened up.

Re: Weather Forecasts

CalminHeart — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:31:41 GMT

Our meteorologists are 100% accurate after the weather hits.

Re: Weather Forecasts

gardenman — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:45:56 GMT

There are way too many variables involved for weather forecasting to ever be one hundred percent accurate. Their models are generally pretty good, but models can't account for every variable and fail fairly often because of that.

That's why I always find it funny when they predict our temperatures will rise 2.7 degrees higher in a hundred years. Not 2.6 or 2.8 degrees, but exactly 2.7 degrees, and if you don't believe it, you're a science denier. Uh, no. You're a sane person who knows the models they use are inaccurate and can't account for every variable. In a hundred years, temps could fall by ten degrees or rise by ten degrees. Anyone insisting they'll be exactly 2.7 degrees higher is brainwashed. There are way, way too many variables to ever be that precise that far into the future.

Re: Weather Forecasts

catter70 — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:51:23 GMT

They'll just say rain or snow in spots, wherever that might be. Somebody will be in that spot, I guess.

Re: Weather Forecasts

qualitygal — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:51:29 GMT

We were talking about the weather forcast the other day while my son was here and he said, it's the one job that you can be wrong in (like rain, or no rain) and not get fired for it.

Re: Weather Forecasts

PA Mom-mom — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 11:51:55 GMT

@ScrapHappy Our weather here in eastern PA is so localized, it's not really worth following the weather forecasts from the Philly stations. I follow a website from a group of local meteorologists that do private forecasting for businesses. They do a short, free to the public forecast each morning and really lay out the possibilities, but they rarely speak in absolutes.

Re: Weather Forecasts

Meowingkitty — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:06:57 GMT

When the weather is hot and sunny for months on end it's pretty easy for them to be accurate. When it does rain here in Arizona they go crazy with with weather.

Re: Weather Forecasts

Harpa — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:11:56 GMT

Like @PA Mom-mom , I live in S.E. Pa. Lately our local weather wishfully thinks up the forecast.

Of course, they have 4 different models of prediction they follow...the European, the NAM....

I just look at the sky, feel the direction of any winds, sometimes look at the radar, and take my outside walks accordingly.

Re: Weather Forecasts

millieshops — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:30:59 GMT

I believe the weather reports we get are as accurate as current science can make them, and I know they have improved a great deal in my long life.

That said, just last week I walked out of my house minus a raincoat or umbrella expecting no rain and was caught in a deluge as I finished a quick shopping trip a half mile, maybe less, from home.

As I drove home, I decided I'd just sit in the car instead of running through the rain again. No need for that decision - no rain had fallen on my street.

Unless it becomes possible our cell phones can tell us the weather for exactly where we individually are, I think the weather reports will always be somewhat inaccurate. I do not want to be alive when someone figures that out!

Re: Weather Forecasts

drizzellla — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 17:12:41 GMT

Just as @ScrapHappy and @PA Mom-mom said.

As @ScrapHappy stated according to the weather reports we were to get heavy rain and flooding. And we would get no rain at all. And I don't know any community in the area that got any rain much less heavy rain and flooding. That same reports has been given numerous times throughout the summer.

I stopped paying attention to the weather reports. It is summer, I know it will be warm/hot. So I water my plants just about everyday. I don't know what weather pattern the weather person is following but it is not for where I live.

In fact the other day we were to get heavy rain and flooding. We thought it would be a good idea to go Outlet shopping. The rain would keep people away. The Outlets are about 50 miles away. We had a nice sunny sky the entire trip. Not a sign of rain the entire day.

PS - Just got this email

"several rounds of thunderstorms and fierce winds are slated to hit southeast Pennsylvania Friday and into the weekend, forecasters say."

We will see if we get one drop of rain. We seem to get this same forecast every other day. ,

Re: Weather Forecasts

Krimpette — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:27:27 GMT

@CalminHeart And then they brag about about how right they were!!!!!!

Re: Weather Forecasts

Jacie — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:32:05 GMT

I always think that I could be more acurate just by throwing darts at a weather map!

Re: Weather Forecasts

bonnielu — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:00:21 GMT

I just look outside and figure it out myself. OR I GO WITH WHATEVER THEY SAY AND THINK THE OPPOSITE. lol

Re: Weather Forecasts

Kachina624 — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:05:03 GMT

Some areas, due to many factors, seem to be hard to accurately predict the weather. My area seems to be easy. Not only are they almost always dead on accurate, they say exactly what time its going to start raining and they're always right. We always know what's coming and when.

Re: Weather Forecasts

Zhills — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:12:27 GMT

I have the "My Radar" app on my phone and the local radar on my computer. Never rely on the weather man.

I've watched big rain masses split and go right around us. Yes, it rained...3 blocks over in every direction!

Re: Weather Forecasts

Spurt — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:34:09 GMT

@ScrapHappy wrote:
How accurate are your local weathermen/women? Mine, not very accurate at all. This week they called for heavy rain every day with localized flooding, etc. It didn't rain at ll Monday thru Wednesday. I just got up this morning and we have some drizzle going on. One day I was watching the new/weather and, again, was expecting rain, but then the weatherman said all the storms have gone by and threat is over. Thirty minutes later the skies opened up.

@ScrapHappy

It became a joke her in San Antonio as to how accurate the local forecast were---they use numerous computer models for the forecast, why there's even a "European Model"---what the heck does Europe have to do with weather in SA????....Even the National Weather Service lumps us together with Austin--Texas is a HUGE state with many differ topographies so even Austin weather is different from San Antonio hence why forecasts were never accurate! One of the local meteoroloist said he didnt use the computer models he mapped the forecast himself using weather data---sadly he retired and is sorely missed. I follow him on Facebook!

HAPPILY one TV station divides the area into 4 Weather Zones making their weathercasts the most accurate!!!! KUDOS to News4!!!! Meanwhile the other meteorologists with the INACCURATE forecasts are more focused on themselves and making themselves a local celebrity....

Re: Weather Forecasts

Sooner — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:38:50 GMT

I thank God for our meteorologists every day. Now they can pretty much tell you what block the tornado is on. And that saves a whole lot of lives.

Re: Weather Forecasts

Laura14 — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:45:23 GMT

If anyone remembers Snowpocalypse down here in Georgia where people spent the night on I-85 after they were trapped in a snowstorm several years ago, that was courtesy of the meteorologists who were way off in the timing and type of weather we were getting.

We were all told to go to work and school in the morning because it wouldn't be coming in until later in the afternoon. We listened and we did.

It came at noon and we slept in our cars and at schools where teachers had to keep the kids overnight.

Ever since then my eyes and window have been 100% accurate and the only forecast I trust.

Re: Weather Forecasts

RedTop — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 18:06:16 GMT

I'm in WV and our local forecasts are quite accurate thanks to the "dual Doppler radar system" that is sure to be mentioned a dozen times during the weather forecast.

Re: Weather Forecasts

Krimpette — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 19:51:17 GMT

This is from push notification received on my cell phone a bit ago It's from one of the weather channels: "Rain soon. Expected to start at 3:20PM and last for 32 minutes."!!!!! I get these often and rarely are they accurate. But the preciseness always amuses me.