topic Re: Freakish weather forecast... in Community Chat

Freakish weather forecast...

Susan Louise — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 01:35:16 GMT

I just went to the weather channel online to check our forecast (Lincoln, NE) for tonight and over the next 10+ days. Tonight we are expecting severe storms, but when I checked the 10+ day forecast, EVERY day is strong storms for at least 30% chances each day...

In all my life, I have NEVER seen such a forecast...EVER....maybe for a few days, but not EVERY day. We don't live in a rain forest...yet.

I pray it is just a glitch in the Weather Channel system, otherwise I am going to have to tell DH we need to build ourselves an ark.

Below is an image of our current forecast. You'll have to use your zoom feature to see it

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

gizmogal — Wed, 23 Jun 2021 23:35:29 GMT

I'd be upset if the forecast for these storms was a consistent 50% or more chance daily. Although it's disconcerting to see the prediction for storms day after day, a 30% chance of it occurring can be looked at as a 70% chance it won't occur. That's more than twice more odds against getting those storms than them actually happening.

Not a Pollyanna here by only looking at positives. But statistically they can predict nearly anything every day at a 30% chance and it's still plausible it won't happen. Forecasting is quite accurate. But low chances aren't to be feared as guarantees.

Talk about worrisome: I live in NYC. Within the last year the climate zoning of the city was changed from continental temperate to humid subtropical!! Does anyone think of NYC as subtropical? I have no success planting palm trees here! I'm sure that rainfall, rising dewpoints and increasing average temperatures moved the new classification, but we only experience "tropical" level rainfall a few times a year.

Stay safe and enjoy your summer.

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

4kitties — Wed, 23 Jun 2021 23:53:42 GMT

I am in Illinois and we have storms possible for the next 5 days or so.

Crazy weather........

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

LuvmyLab — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 00:31:13 GMT

Check out my post in community chat about our insane weather coming this weekend. Heat like we've never seen before.

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

tucsongal — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 00:35:00 GMT

When the Southwest isn’t experiencing severe drought, this would be our typical monsoon forecast. No wonder it seems strange in the Midwest.

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

Sweet Caroline 1 — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 11:45:28 GMT

Dear @Susan Louise Google El Nino and La Nina. It deals with the temperature of the Pacific water. They give us cooler or warmer weather and wetter or dryer weather. In AL, we recently had three straight weeks of rain, a tropical storm that dumped tons of rain, and are expecting more rain. I'm very tired of the rain. I think we are in an El Nino weather pattern. SC

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

tototwo — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 11:55:04 GMT

We're a little south of you and right now there's a big, black wall cloud hanging over us. Wind is ferocious. I went out to get the chair cushions off my porch before they all blow down the street!

We also have several days of this ahead. My concern is that we had 2 weeks of over-100 degree temps in early- to mid-June. We usually don't have continuous over-100 days until late July and August. What will our weather be like in August? Our climate is definitely changing and seasons are shifting.

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

Susan Louise — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 17:44:41 GMT

@Sweet Caroline 1 wrote:
Dear @Susan Louise Google El Nino and La Nina. It deals with the temperature of the Pacific water. They give us cooler or warmer weather and wetter or dryer weather. In AL, we recently had three straight weeks of rain, a tropical storm that dumped tons of rain, and are expecting more rain. I'm very tired of the rain. I think we are in an El Nino weather pattern. SC

@Sweet Caroline 1 It certainly is better than being in a drought...

In the past I have seen 10+ day forecasts with chances of scattered or isolated t-storms every day or nearly every day for a couple of weeks, but never strong t-storms every day. That part was the shocker.

Hopefully you will see the sun and dry out soon.

Re: Freakish weather forecast...

Spurt — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:17:21 GMT

Here in South Texas things are starting to look "normal" after a very wet and rainy May....and temps have been below normal in May and until now for June.....

But back in March this was predicted for the U.S.:

La Nina is fading and Summer 2021 is expected to be hot across much of the nation, particularly in the western and central United States, according to the latest three-month outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business. ... Meanwhile, much of the East and Southeast are expected to be near or slightly warmer than average this summer.Mar 11, 2021

2021 will almost certainly be one of the Top 10 warmest years since records began in the mid-1800s.May 21, 2021

TRY TO STAY COOL---