topic Re: Have you considered what it will be like if..... in Community Chat

Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Mominohio — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 03:52:44 GMT

a good vaccine isn't found, or is way further off than expected for Covid? How it will effect your daily life, or those in your family?

Or if getting it manufactured in quantity enough to supply the world takes an additional year or more?

Or turns out to be like the flu vaccine is most times, and isn't really all that effective?

I'm not looking for the usual 'don't borrow trouble' or 'stop worrying about what hasn't happened, or 'stop creating panic' responses. I'm not. I'm simply bringing to the table, something that should be considered and discussed. The fact that there may not be a good vaccine, or a quick vaccine, and we may be in this thing for even longer than we have anticipated.

If we keep using all the precautions, if places choose to keep falling back on lockdown type restrictions, fewer people will be exposed, and fewer will gain immunity. Will we simply have to go through the process of waiting until heard immunity is reached to some good extent? Will we have to maybe wait it out to see if it weakens on it's own? How long might that be?

If anyone has read anything based on these kinds of questions, and would like to share the sources, I'd be interested to know.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Kachina624 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:10:30 GMT

No, I have not considered the possibility that a vaccine won't be found. The best and brightest scientists and researchers in the world are working on it so of course they will ultimately be successful. Several are in initial trials right now.

The problem will be to get enough manufactured so it can be administered to millions of people. Countries where it could be made are likely to give a priority to administering to their own citizens. Once again, the US is a day late and a dollar short and I haven't heard anyone even mention the problem, let alone a solution

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

willdob3 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:12:58 GMT

@Mominohio

No, not really. There is no point. I don’t have any eggs in that basket.

I don’t expect a good vaccine any time soon, if ever, simply based on other vaccines. We will probably have the opportunity to try bad vaccines soon but I’m not interested in taking part in that particular experiment so I haven’t spent any time hoping for a vaccine.

We really just have to get through this. The worst is yet to come. I promise.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

germanshepherdlove — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:18:39 GMT

@Mominohio It's good to talk about these things. All of your points I have thought about one time or another. I am so horrified by what is happening in Ca. I'm shocked, I'm saddened and I'm crying.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

sweetee2 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:18:55 GMT

We are retired and this hasn't really changed alot in our daily lives. When we go out we wear a mask and gloves which is no big deal to us.

There are some things in life that are bigger than we are and this is one of those. All you can do is worry about your ourselves and look for the best in each day.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Linmo — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:18:56 GMT

@Mominohio I think at a minimum we can expect to wear masks and social distance for the forseeable future. For those of us with loved ones in nursing homes, we may not be able to see them for awhile.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

PamfromCT — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:22:48 GMT

I cannot cite exact sources, but I think most scientists agree that there are many questions regarding immunity. No one knows how much immunity can be expected, and how long immunity would last if it were present. I believe there is great interest in finding people who have been infected more than once. As a non-scientist, I wonder if the more severe the infection, the more immunity?

My DD, a scientist herself, tells me that there is a theory that immunity might not be able to be measured. Rather, it’s like certain cells might sort of spring into action at the introduction of the virus into the body.

I do share your concern about living with this situation for a much longer time than we thought. We are doing quite well where I live, after following strict measures for a long time. We lost over 4,200 people. The thought of being reinfected by others is a sad possibility. Wish we had followed Italy’s model.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Pearlee — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:36:36 GMT

No. IMO it's a waste of time and stress to speculate about that. There is enough to concern myself with that is really going on while a vaccine is being worked on.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Nightowlz — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:44:37 GMT

I think we are in this for several years.

They already said even when they do get a vaccine only 50% of the people will take it so you would still need to wear a mask plus social distance???

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

sunshine45 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:55:07 GMT

i dont think there will be a surefire vaccine anytime soon.

i am generally not a worrier, especially regarding things that may happen in the future. i try to plan for the here and now. if i worried that much about the future, i would not be able to enjoy my life in the present. it keeps me happy and keeps my mind clear. there is a lot to be said for positivity and i do believe it helps keep you in a healthier state of mind.

so far, my loved ones and i have all been healthy, including my 79 year old mother. i am very thankful for that.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

bikerbabe — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 06:13:33 GMT

I’d be surprised if 50% of the population agree to get a vaccine.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

hckynut — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 06:42:53 GMT

Hello there @Mominohio

For me during all of my adult life I have never paid any more attention to phrases that end with the word "if", than I have to the old past tense "should'a/could'a/would'a".

Even my mom used to tell me do this, do that, "for your future", but I said the same things to her in the '50's that I still say today. I live for, and in the present, not the future or the past.

I can't change the past nor can I predict my future. What I can do is make the most of every one of my present days, and that I will continue to do until I physically or mentally can not.

You have seen me say it in many of my posts, I live 1 day at a time. This was before and after my many brushes with possibly dying, and I have no intention or reason to change to now because of a virus.

"What if"? With luck and doing my best to stay physically fit and healthy, I may be around long enough to possibly find out those answers.

hckynut 🏒

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Goldengate8361 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 08:46:50 GMT

I agree that the coronavirus is going to be with us much longer than most folks believe. Most people appear to be in denial about that....as evidenced by the fact that many STILL refuse to wear masks or socially distance. It is baffling to me. Americans can be so ignorant.....and it is killing us. Ignorance is NOT bliss.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Desertdi — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 09:37:31 GMT

I'm old enough to have gone thru a couple polio epidemics BEFORE Jonas Salk made the brilliant discovery............

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

AngelPuppy1 — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 09:04:38 GMT

I think your concerns are valid. I think about it sometimes, too. DH and I always are worried about just the regular flu since we have serious health issues. We get our flu shots faithfully and then think -- well, is this batch a good one?

I have pondered the same thing as mominohio. How long will the development of a vaccine take, how effective will it be and how long before it will be available for the general population?

Things seemed to be improving but now we hear on the news that cases in many areas are really going up again. Due to many things, probably some of which are the constant demonstrations of large gatherings, people not social distancing, not wearing masks or not wearing them properly (cover your nose also), people traveling, etc. I hear where bars in some area are now being restricted again.

So, where this is all going and when it will get resolved --- good question!

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

qualitygal — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 09:29:11 GMT

No I haven't gone that far. I too, believe in our people to find an answer. I know that they haven't cured the common cold, or cancer, but I choose to believe that we will find a way.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

Deree — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 10:09:10 GMT

Funny thing is I have a tendency toward pessimism and worry but I haven't spent any time being bothered by this thought. I am optimistic that a vaccine will be developed sooner than anticipated. But I tell ya what I am bothered about. People. I have been angry and dismayed at people's attitudes in this country in general. I never thought there were so many Ignorant and selfish people. People who don't understand science and who don't know what it is to make small sacrifices for the good of everyone. And that is what worries me about the future. It's one thing to have understandable guidelines to follow or a vaccine. It's another to have people's cooperation. Without people's cooperation we are fighting a losing battle IMO.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

gardenman — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 10:01:43 GMT

Those assuming a vaccine is just around the corner should remember that HIV has been around since the mid-seventies and there's still no vaccine. Four coronaviruses are responsible for many of the common colds we get and there's no common cold vaccine.

The good news is Covid-19 almost seems to be creating its own vaccine. A recent (6/22/2020) Penn State study (here's the link if anyone's interested. https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally ) that looks at influenza-like illnesses this year compared to past years, finds that the virus was likely 80+ times more widespread than reported in March. They report that their findings show that 8.7 million people had the virus instead of the 100,000+ that's been reported.

If you assume their report of 8.7 million infected is correct and you look at the number of deaths as of March 31st (4,216) you get a death rate of 0.048% which is half that of the "typical" flu's death rate of 0.1%.

If their numbers are correct (and personally I have some doubts as NJ's death rate even if you assume everyone in the state had the virus is still higher than that, but those are their numbers) then there's a 99.952% chance of you surviving Covid-19.

If there were truly 8.7 million Americans with the virus in March, then the number now infected would be vastly higher. Officially now we have 2.5 million people with confirmed cases. If that number is also off eighty-fold then the real number of infected would be more like 200 million. We'd be getting very close to herd immunity at that number.

Reports indicate that the vast majority of people (80% is commonly cited) have no symptoms whatsoever and an additional 15% have mild to moderate symptoms with only 5% having more serious issues. The deaths from Covid-19 are dropping even as the number of cases increases which implies that the commonly circulating form has evolved into a less deadly version.

If the virus is as widespread as the Penn State reports indicate it could be, then it's pretty much becoming self-vaccinating. By the time a vaccine is ready (if one ever is) nearly everyone will have had it and have some level of immunity. To the best of my knowledge, there have been no factual cases of someone getting Covid-19 twice. There are some anecdotal claims, but if the virus is as widespread as the Penn State study assumes then many people likely have had multiple exposures to it and we should have some firm cases of reinfection which we don't currently have.

Until the CDC releases antibody test numbers, we won't know what to believe. Our numbers we have now are essentially the worst-case numbers in terms of the death rate. The one solid number we have are the number of dead. There are reports that even those numbers could be inflated as people who died with Covid-19 are being lumped with those who died from Covid-19. And yes, there's a difference.

The numbers right now aren't horrible. The deaths are dropping. More infections are being found as we're doing more testing, but the vast majority of those testing positive are having few if any symptoms. Once infected and the virus is cleared, it appears that people are then immune at least for a bit. It's not the end of the world.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

CalminHeart — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 11:14:04 GMT

I expect covid to be around until the "it's all about me" crowd begins thinking about others, their impact on others, and the common good. Just look at all the new outbreaks, people refusing to wear masks, and anti-science mentality for proof.

The price of the vaccine could be a problem for many if it's too expensive.

Re: Have you considered what it will be like if.....

fancy pantsy — Tue, 30 Jun 2020 11:15:53 GMT

yes, of course i have considered it. i am not stressing or worrying about it, though. i am assuming that, because of pressure, they will be forced to rush a product through just to be able to say they did it. so, in considering this, my assumption is that life will remain as is (hopefully not worse!) for some time to come.