topic Re: Social Distancing until 2022 in Community Chat

Social Distancing until 2022

SeaMaiden — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:17:40 GMT

FROM:

Statnews.com

A modeling study on the new coronavirus warns that intermittent periods of social distancing may need to persist into 2022 in the United States to keep the surge of people severely sickened by Covid-19 from overwhelming the health care system.

The research, published Tuesday in the journal Science, looked at a range of scenarios for how the SARS-CoV-2 virus will spread over the next five years. Those scenarios included variables like whether people who are infected develop short-term immunity — less than a year — or longer-term protection.

But, overall, the research concludes it is unlikely that life will return any time soon to the way it was before the virus’ emergence.

The researchers, from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, acknowledge the economic fallout from the response to the virus has been profound.

“Our goal in modeling such policies is not to endorse them but to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches,” they wrote. “We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and-or not sustained for long enough.”

The authors suggest a number of factors will play a major role in how the disease’s trajectory plays out over the coming years — if transmission subsides in summer and resurges in winter, if there is some immunity induced by infection and how long it lasts, and whether people get any cross-protective immunity from having been infected with related human coronaviruses that cause common colds.

About the Author

Helen Branswell

Senior Writer, Infectious Disease

Helen covers issues broadly related to infectious diseases, including outbreaks, preparedness, research, and vaccine development.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Porcelain — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:34:14 GMT

LOL. No.

Even though this is probably so, it is too early to talk about this widely. Let us roll into it slowly. People can only handle so much at a time. For businesses and governments, sure please discuss. But let's leave us regular folks in a bit of ignorance for a few more weeks please while we acclimate to what is already going on.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Vivian — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:37:18 GMT

The Spanish flu pandemic started in 1918. It wasn't eradicated until 1921. I trust that the scientists will give us their best estimations of what behaviors need to be engaged in and until how long. They may be wrong but one thing I do know is that our behavior does have an effect upon this bug.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Jordan2 — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:38:20 GMT

I think I rather not live then to live somewhat like this for two more years.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Porcelain — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:42:24 GMT

@Jordan2 wrote:
I think I rather not live then to live somewhat like this for two more years.

I hear you. However, the human spirit is much stronger than that.

One thing we can always take to the bank: in two years things will be different. We just don't know how or what.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Nataliesgramma — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:43:30 GMT

No way...I'll take my chances

That wouldn't be a life I would want

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

deepwaterdotter — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:44:40 GMT

As an immuno-suppressed individual, I will do whatever I can to remain alive. My family and friends have discussed social distancing years into the future. We agree that putting ourselves in potentially deadly physical contact is not worth the risk. We will stay in contact through other means.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

millieshops — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:47:26 GMT

A rose is a rose is a rose. Whatever we call it, social distancing is not really a totally new concept - but the extreme need for it now does make it seem new.

One of the activities I've been doing while I've been staying home more is sorting through the mounds of paper that's been boring me for way too long, and just a few hours ago, I turned over a clipping from maybe even 10 years ago. On the side I originally wanted was a list of all the records I should have in order for my family when I'm no longer able to care for myself or when I'm just no longer here at all.

But, on the flip side of a list was how to cope better if that year's flu epidemic. Guess what? First, avoid contact with anyone presenting with symptoms. Second, stay home if you yourself feel at all ill. Cover your mouth and nose. Sanitize your bath, bedrooms, and especially your kitchen. And finally, wash your hands frequently. Really not all that different from now except in degree.

I know I will resume some of my pre-virus habits, but it will be longer than a month or two or three or maybe more. Further, it's unlikely i'll be taking many suggestions from the politicians in my state. They have done zilch to make me feel safe so far.

Wish I'd dated that page!

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

ValuSkr — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:55:28 GMT

That sounds about right. By 2022, supplies of face masks and wipes will have improved.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

mamaslittlepotato — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:53:27 GMT

This woman hasn’t said anything that common sense and overthinking could tell us about what MAY happen. It’s not written in stone, it’s possibilities. Too much doom and gloom. Let’s try to take this one day at a time, otherwise we will worry every day of our lives, 24/7.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

I am still oxox — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:54:08 GMT

Does the OP thrive on posting the doom and gloom posts, everythign she posts is very alarming

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Anonymous032819 — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:55:19 GMT

We should also have a vaccine by then.

i just can't see people tolerating isolating in their homes for that long.

Two more years of this?

I call "no way".

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Kachina624 — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 18:55:45 GMT

I'd already concluded that this virus wasn't going away and we would be at risk until a safe and effective immunization is developed. I fully expect to socially isolate until well into, if not all of, 2021. I feel for those who must get out and mingle to work, raise their children, etc.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Porcelain — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:00:12 GMT

@I am still oxox wrote:
Does the OP thrive on posting the doom and gloom posts, everythign she posts is very alarming

That's not so. Fairly recently she didn't give a hoot about COVID-19 just like many. At first she she didn't care about the virus,and she just cared about her stocks and getting TP. I remember that because it seemed so off key to me at the time.

I'm glad she came around! I thought everyone was overreacting and glooming it up at first too. It takes a while to understand and wrap your head around it.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

QueenDanceALot — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:02:28 GMT

People can't even seem to do this for a month without a lot of fussing and whining.

I wouldn't care if some people chuck it all and go visiting and hugging and whatever other behavior they just must engage in, and if it only impacted them, fine, they can do whatever the heck they want, but their behavior impacts others' lives.

And that just isn't right. It's not OK, and it's not alright.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Kachina624 — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:04:03 GMT

@I am still oxox wrote:
Does the OP thrive on posting the doom and gloom posts, everythign she posts is very alarming

@I am still oxox No, we have another poster who has accepted that role.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

QueenDanceALot — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:06:00 GMT

@Jordan2 wrote:
I think I rather not live then to live somewhat like this for two more years.

Well, I'm certainly not willing to just give up because I have to do this for 2 years.

I expect and want to live quite a long time after that.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

I am still oxox — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:07:55 GMT

@Porcelain

I prefer to have my info filtered and in small chunks I would rather not have it ramed down my throat on a shopping bulletin board

@Porcelain wrote:
@I am still oxox wrote:
Does the OP thrive on posting the doom and gloom posts, everythign she posts is very alarming
That's not so. Fairly recently she didn't give a hoot about COVID-19 just like many. At first she she didn't care about the virus,and she just cared about her stocks and getting TP. I remember that because it seemed so off key to me at the time.

I'm glad she came around! I thought everyone was overreacting and glooming it up at first too. It takes a while to understand and wrap your head around it.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

Porcelain — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:10:04 GMT

@I am still oxox wrote:
@Porcelain

I prefer to have my info filtered and in small chunks I would rather not have it ramed down my throat on a shopping bulletin board

Hmmm. My browser doesn't ram anything down my throat. You must be using a different model.

Re: Social Distancing until 2022

occasionalrain — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 19:14:37 GMT

I don't like people in my space, I don't want hugs and hand shakes from acquaintances much less strangers. So for me, social distancing is welcome, except for the masks; I can do without those.

I like that businesses are cleaning their spaces, that there is a shield between me and the cashier, and more stores offer disinfectant wipes at their entrances.

It will be grand if in future people are forced to stay at home when they're sick instead of infecting those who are unfortunate to come in contact with them.

Parents will no longer be permitted to leave their children to wonder stores touching everything and playing with produce.

There is never a negative without a positive to be included somewhere.