topic Nursing Home Covid Numbers in Wellness

Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Icegoddess — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 04:08:41 GMT

I was just watching a local law show and tonight's topic had to do with elder law. One of the lawyers just mentioned that our state's Dept. of Public Health refuses to release Covid-19 numbers specific to nursing homes. They said that the numbers the press is able to get is what is being reported to Medicare/Medicaid, but not by the Dept of Public Health. I found that interesting.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Sooner — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 04:11:42 GMT

We have gotten specific numbers where I live, even specific to nursing homes themselves. . . don't know how the numbers are released.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

RoughDraft — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 06:19:44 GMT

Don't forget the prison numbers...even for those who are awaiting trial.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

DottieBlue — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 08:13:59 GMT

@Icegoddess wrote:
I was just watching a local law show and tonight's topic had to do with elder law. One of the lawyers just mentioned that our state's Dept. of Public Health refuses to release Covid-19 numbers specific to nursing homes. They said that the numbers the press is able to get is what is being reported to Medicare/Medicaid, but not by the Dept of Public Health. I found that interesting.

I find it alarming. What are they covering up?

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

millieshops — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 10:43:02 GMT

Not releasing numbers is ridiculous. We already know nursing homes aren’t healthy places to be even in good times and now, how could we be surprised by any numbers?

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

alicedee — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 10:59:33 GMT

The nursing home in my small city was hit very hard...112 beds in the facility...68 confirmed cases and almost 30 deaths. A large number of staff members also got the virus.

They were proactive very early on....but once it got in there, it just ran rampant. Very heartbreaking.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

gardenman — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:26:54 GMT

In the US, nursing home deaths account for about 40% of the total deaths. The worldwide average is somewhere over 40% with the deaths in nursing homes in Canada reportedly closer to 80% of their total deaths. Nursing home residents are by far the most vulnerable to Covid-19. Nearly every expert agrees nursing home residents need to be handled more carefully.

Overall, Covid-19 is looking like less of a threat with a reported 80% of those testing positive showing few if any symptoms and 95% of those testing positive showing at most moderate flu-like symptoms. It seems to strike about 5% hardest and those are the ones who end up in hospitals or dying. Now 5% of 330 million Americans is a lot of people (around 16.5 million if my math is right) so it's still a big problem, but for the other 95% it's more of a nuisance.

And it's important to bear in mind that there are probably a lot more people who have had it without symptoms, or minimal symptoms, than is likely being reported which could change the math in a dramatic fashion. That 5% number of people hit hardest could drop to less than one percent pretty easily. Some international studies put the death rate at 0.1% which is comparable to a very bad flu season. In the US, 0.1% of 330 million people would be 330,000 people which seems to be about where we're heading if everyone gets exposed.

One of the numbers the CDC isn't releasing is the antibody test results. The daily updated test results are typically the PCR tests which look for active virus, but not a past infection. I suspect the antibody test results show a much higher rate of past infection and thus a lower rate of people with moderate to severe symptoms.

About a month to six weeks ago a preliminary antibody screening in LA and NYC showed as many as 20%-25% had already been exposed to the virus and developed antibodies. By now that number could be 30%-40% which if applied to our current number of dead and extrapolated would bring the potential death toll up to the 0.1% or 330,000 that's being reported internationally if everyone was infected. The good news is that means that 99.9% of us survive this just fine.

There are lots of numbers and studies out there these days. Sorting through them all can be challenging. Things don't look nearly as bad as the original projections of 2.2 million dead. Our upper tier number right now seems to be the 330,000 or one tenth of one percent of the population if everyone gets exposed and infected. Typically viruses like this don't infect everyone, so we're likely looking at an even lower number than that. I wouldn't be shocked to see deaths stop around the 120,000-150,000 mark. And bear in mind we lost over 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 flu season despite there being flu vaccine and effective flu treatments. We have neither a vaccine nor effective treatment for Covid-19. If we didn't have the flu vaccine or effective treatments in the 2017-2018 flu season, we'd likely have seen a similar death toll. This truly isn't the end of the world.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

CrazyDaisy — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 13:34:58 GMT

Last week Ohio was reporting 71% of the deaths in the state were from nursing/assisted living facilities. Ohio was one of the first states to lock down these places (most still are).

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Still Raining — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 15:23:26 GMT

Oregon does the name, cases and deaths. We have separate number for healthcare.

We also can see large breakouts by site, such church or employment. We get a count of admitted patients by hospital too.

They publish recovered too.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

VaBelle35 — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 17:34:50 GMT

My understanding is that the issue is private nursing homes vs state run.

In my state we are getting the state run numbers but that does not including private nursing homes, private in home nursing home care. I don't know if this is done in every state, but people literally take people into their homes and care for them for less fees than a state or private home.

A woman I used to go to water aerobics with is in a private home like this.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

hckynut — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 18:11:06 GMT

Here in Nebraska the latest stats I have read is 50%.

hckynut 🏒

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Drythe — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 20:30:35 GMT

@Icegoddess wrote:
I was just watching a local law show and tonight's topic had to do with elder law. One of the lawyers just mentioned that our state's Dept. of Public Health refuses to release Covid-19 numbers specific to nursing homes. They said that the numbers the press is able to get is what is being reported to Medicare/Medicaid, but not by the Dept of Public Health. I found that interesting.

What is, or is not released by a State Dept. of Public Health, is controlled by the Governor of that state.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Drythe — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 21:22:35 GMT

@gardenman

As you say, many of these remarks are based on probability, and speculation about data not actually available. I think that is important to keep prominently in mind. I tend to focus on available data and not extrapolation, and supposition.

We are Already at 120,000 Deaths in America, and still Counting.

Your source compares numbers of Deaths over the 17/18 FLU SEASON to FOUR MONTHS OF COVID-19. 🍊/🍏

Hard to understand why so many continue to make this comparison as it has no informative value.

Additionally, we know that there were some COVID19 positive deaths as early as January and February of 19/20. *** testing done in Oregon and Washington States, info. available on WWW.

We will never know how many actually have COVID19 in the USA, as testing has been slowed, uneven, and sporadically available.

Perhaps used for shock effect, Truly I don’t remember anyone Else mentioning The End of The World.

@gardenman wrote:
In the US, nursing home deaths account for about 40% of the total deaths. The worldwide average is somewhere over 40% with the deaths in nursing homes in Canada reportedly closer to 80% of their total deaths. Nursing home residents are by far the most vulnerable to Covid-19. Nearly every expert agrees nursing home residents need to be handled more carefully.

Overall, Covid-19 is looking like less of a threat with a reported 80% of those testing positive showing few if any symptoms and 95% of those testing positive showing at most moderate flu-like symptoms. It seems to strike about 5% hardest and those are the ones who end up in hospitals or dying. Now 5% of 330 million Americans is a lot of people (around 16.5 million if my math is right) so it's still a big problem, but for the other 95% it's more of a nuisance.

And it's important to bear in mind that there are probably a lot more people who have had it without symptoms, or minimal symptoms, than is likely being reported which could change the math in a dramatic fashion. That 5% number of people hit hardest could drop to less than one percent pretty easily. Some international studies put the death rate at 0.1% which is comparable to a very bad flu season. In the US, 0.1% of 330 million people would be 330,000 people which seems to be about where we're heading if everyone gets exposed.

One of the numbers the CDC isn't releasing is the antibody test results. The daily updated test results are typically the PCR tests which look for active virus, but not a past infection. I suspect the antibody test results show a much higher rate of past infection and thus a lower rate of people with moderate to severe symptoms.

About a month to six weeks ago a preliminary antibody screening in LA and NYC showed as many as 20%-25% had already been exposed to the virus and developed antibodies. By now that number could be 30%-40% which if applied to our current number of dead and extrapolated would bring the potential death toll up to the 0.1% or 330,000 that's being reported internationally if everyone was infected. The good news is that means that 99.9% of us survive this just fine.

There are lots of numbers and studies out there these days. Sorting through them all can be challenging. Things don't look nearly as bad as the original projections of 2.2 million dead. Our upper tier number right now seems to be the 330,000 or one tenth of one percent of the population if everyone gets exposed and infected. Typically viruses like this don't infect everyone, so we're likely looking at an even lower number than that. I wouldn't be shocked to see deaths stop around the 120,000-150,000 mark. And bear in mind we lost over 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 flu season despite there being flu vaccine and effective flu treatments. We have neither a vaccine nor effective treatment for Covid-19. If we didn't have the flu vaccine or effective treatments in the 2017-2018 flu season, we'd likely have seen a similar death toll. This truly isn't the end of the world.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

FrostyBabe1 — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 12:16:35 GMT

We're not getting any meaningful info on nursing home numbers here in Michigan, largely because the homes were forced to take COVID patients from hospitals, and the administration is doing their darndest to keep the results of that dumb idea quiet. Congress requested info and was told "no, we're not co-operating".

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Nuttmeg — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 13:26:06 GMT

Why would anyone want to take the blame for 50-60K deaths in this country?

Why would they want the general public to know?

People maybe more responsible and wear a mask. I have a feeling they will just keep doing the old normal.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

CrazyDaisy — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 14:05:55 GMT

@FrostyBabe1 wrote:
We're not getting any meaningful info on nursing home numbers here in Michigan, largely because the homes were forced to take COVID patients from hospitals, and the administration is doing their darndest to keep the results of that dumb idea quiet. Congress requested info and was told "no, we're not co-operating".

Just a hunch on my part, but is you take out the numbers from nursing homes, assisted living facilities and prisons there would be a much different picture of what is going on.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

alicedee — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 14:16:52 GMT

@FrostyBabe1

Michigan posts nursing home stats here. https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173-526911--,00.html

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

FrostyBabe1 — Tue, 23 Jun 2020 17:09:40 GMT

@alicedee wrote:
@FrostyBabe1

Michigan posts nursing home stats here. https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173-526911--,00.html

Thank you, but I am well aware of what the state is publishing. The problem is that they're incomplete, inaccurate and the government officials in charge refuse to give a time line as to when accurate statistics will be available. I've watched every one of the press briefings, and it's like a broken record. Same excuses over and over and over.

They won't even tell our county health director how they're arriving at significantly different numbers for my county than what the county is reporting.

I'd say more, but it's entirely political so I won't.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

KarenQVC — Wed, 24 Jun 2020 02:01:00 GMT

Each state needs new-built step down units, esp. for the elderly and nursing home residents.

The dedicated wings/hubs within existing nursing homes make no sense.

I know UMich was going to build one a big in the new track and field building, but said they never had the need. I hope they kept those plans for their build.

There it is---a good reason to build up the athletic program.

Re: Nursing Home Covid Numbers

Bibione — Wed, 24 Jun 2020 15:52:00 GMT

My mother is in a nursing home in Veneto,Italy.Not far from where the first covid death in Europe happended.

There never had a case.Staff and seniors are tested every 10 days.My cousin works there so she keeps me updated.

Staff (and every citizen) has to wear a mask in every public place.The fee is 400 dollars,so only the illegal aliens that arrive every day by boat from Africa don't wear them.

The nursing home is only now letting relatives see the seniors by appointment through a plexiglass.