topic Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70 in Wellness

Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

Mindy D — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 18:25:37 GMT

From CNN "People under 20 half as likely to catch COVID-19, study find" Quoted below:

"(CNN) — Children and teenagers are estimated to be about half as likely to get infected by the coronavirus than those aged 20 or over, according to research published Tuesday.

The modeling study, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and published in the journal Nature Medicine, used transmission models to estimate disease susceptibility and the relation of age to cases.

Researchers estimate that clinical symptoms of Covid-19 manifest in around 21% of those aged between 10 and 19. This estimate rises to around 69% in people aged 70 or over.

Looking at epidemic data from China, Japan, Italy, Singapore, Canada and South Korea, researchers said children could be less susceptible to catching Covid-19 from contact with an infected person and could experience less severe disease.

"Direct evidence for decreased susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 in children has been mixed, but if true could result in lower transmission in the population overall," the study said.

Countries with a lower average population age could have fewer cases of Covid-19 per capita, the study said.

"If the number of infections or cases depends strongly on the role of children, countries with different age distributions could exhibit substantially different epidemic profiles and overall impact of Covid-19 epidemics," the study added.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said researchers found that children and teenagers were less susceptible to infection and less likely to show symptoms if infected. However, the authors were not able to determine whether young people were also less infectious, he said.

"This makes it difficult to precisely assess the impact of school closures on the wider spread of Covid-19," Woolhouse, who was not involved in the research, told the Science Media Centre.

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Quoted from the abstract of the study:

Nature Medicine (2020)Cite this article
By Nicholas G.Davies, Petra Kkepac,Yang Liuk Kiesha Orem, Mark Jit, CMMID COVID-19 working ground, Rosalind Eggo:

"Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. "

"We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70 years."

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

millieshops — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 18:45:52 GMT

Makes sense to me -- way fewer underlying weaknesses in that age group; way fewer working in unsafe environments; way less exposure in large groups or supermarkets or churches or rallies or bars or restaurants.and on and on, as well as not much time for their inborn human immune systems to have begun to deteriorate.

I assume some of these were accounted for, but unless they all were - what do we know that we didn't already know?

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

Mindy D — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 19:12:29 GMT

@Mindy D wrote:

From CNN "People under 20 half as likely to catch COVID-19, study find" Quoted below:

"(CNN) — Children and teenagers are estimated to be about half as likely to get infected by the coronavirus than those aged 20 or over, according to research published Tuesday.
The modeling study, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and published in the journal Nature Medicine, used transmission models to estimate disease susceptibility and the relation of age to cases.
Researchers estimate that clinical symptoms of Covid-19 manifest in around 21% of those aged between 10 and 19. This estimate rises to around 69% in people aged 70 or over.
Looking at epidemic data from China, Japan, Italy, Singapore, Canada and South Korea, researchers said children could be less susceptible to catching Covid-19 from contact with an infected person and could experience less severe disease.

"Direct evidence for decreased susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 in children has been mixed, but if true could result in lower transmission in the population overall," the study said.
Countries with a lower average population age could have fewer cases of Covid-19 per capita, the study said.
"If the number of infections or cases depends strongly on the role of children, countries with different age distributions could exhibit substantially different epidemic profiles and overall impact of Covid-19 epidemics," the study added.
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said researchers found that children and teenagers were less susceptible to infection and less likely to show symptoms if infected. However, the authors were not able to determine whether young people were also less infectious, he said.
"This makes it difficult to precisely assess the impact of school closures on the wider spread of Covid-19," Woolhouse, who was not involved in the research, told the Science Media Centre.

---------
Quoted from the abstract of the study:
Nature Medicine (2020)Cite this article
By Nicholas G.Davies, Petra Kkepac,Yang Liuk Kiesha Orem, Mark Jit, CMMID COVID-19 working ground, Rosalind Eggo:

"Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. "

"We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70 years."

This is a modeling study.

1. Young people (ages 10-19) are less susceptible, about half as susceptible as those 70 and over, when exposed.

2. Young people are less likely to manifest symptoms, 21%. When ill, the young people are more often asymptomatic.

3. Older persons are more susceptible when exposed.

4. Older people (70 or older) are more like to manifest symptoms, 69%. When ill, the older people are more often symptomatic.

This modeling is done to make projections for such things as reopening schools. It's really not geared for individual projections, however, you can still use the information when thinking about risks to a certain degree. Remember that this modeling is based on previous data. How a person might apply this in their own life is to think that if you are older and we're out and among others, if you do get the virus, you probably will have the symptoms but if you're a young person and your positive you're less likely than an older person to show symptoms that your ill and you're much less likely to catch COVID-19 in the first place.

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

Bhvbum — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 19:30:01 GMT

With a family of teachers we were just talking about how to deal with return to schools. In VA many schools aren't big enough to do the social distancing. The younger folks represent the smallest numbers getting infected, but the teachers and the staff are another issue.

Also all the kids and teachers go home to families. This is a real problem because the numbers are just not going down.

Testing is just revealing what is already there.

The quote of the day:

"If we stopped testing right now, we'd have very few cases." Right.

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

goldensrbest — Tue, 16 Jun 2020 20:21:39 GMT

Well yes,are immune system is not that good ,as we age.

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

fortune — Wed, 17 Jun 2020 02:40:31 GMT

See the latest info on steroids, which will lower death rate.

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

Mindy D — Fri, 19 Jun 2020 03:19:03 GMT

@fortune wrote:
See the latest info on steroids, which will lower death rate.

@fortune In the study, dexamethasone, is the first medication shown to increase people’s chances of surviving covid-19. It reduced the risk of death for patients on ventilators by a third and cut the risk of death for patients on oxygen by a fifth.

This study has not been peer reviewed yet.

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

77yangya — Fri, 19 Jun 2020 11:18:19 GMT

Odd, because their immune system has not had a chance to get used to the usual viruses that a 40 to 45 year old has or maybe a 40 to 60 year old. My husband and I never get colds or flu, no flu shots either. I don't much go by "statistics" because they're not the rule, just exceptions, in my opinion. Now, don't jump on me. JUST my opinion

Re: Susceptibility half in 10-20 yr olds than in 70+ yr olds.Symptoms show 21% in 10-19’s, 69% in 70

desertrat8 — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 04:27:32 GMT

@77yangya

I agree with your statistics comment. Hard to trust any numbers any more for sure. I won't jump on you. Too much of that here and you're entitled to ytour opinion.