Sports

[gardenman]

To the best of my knowledge, no team has used their franchise tag as of yet. I'm guessing they're all still trying to work out a longterm deal without tagging the players. They've got the better part of two weeks before the tags can no longer be used, so lots of back channel stuff is likely going on.

I suspect the teams most likely to use the tag already have some idea if they'll be able to reach a long term deal or not. Using the tag can sometimes alienate a player you really don't want alienated. Kawann Short of the Panthers has made it clear he won't sign the tag and will sit out the year if necessary to avoid playing under the tag. Kirk Cousins has the opposite approach. As soon as the tag is presented to him, he's likely to sign it, like he did last year and force the Redskins to pay him more than market value. The Redskins would prefer to convince him to sign a more team friendly deal before they tag him. They're still reportedly looking at the $16-$18 million range for his contract instead of the $24 million he'll make this year.

These next two weeks will be very busy weeks for NFL front offices and player's agents as they try to hammer out a long term deal before the tags have to be applied. Teams can often sign a guy for below market value by guaranteeing them a lot of cash upfront (signing bonus) that the player can then invest. Agents will be looking ahead to the rumored tax cuts though (down to a max of 30% from the near 40% now) and when you're talking about signing bonuses of $40-$50 million in some cases, that 10% difference counts up.

If the Redkins truly want to sign Kirk Cousins to a long term deal, they'll likely have to come up with a combination of a yearly salary in the $16-$18 million range they want along with a signing bonus (pro-rated over the length of the contract) that would average out to more than $24 million a year. A five year $16 million a year contract ($80 million total) with $40 million in the form of a signing bonus (total of $120 million) would let both sides more or less win. The Redskins could say they were only paying Cousins $16 million a year, but he'd get the money he'd get if they were paying him $24 million a year. ($24 million over five years is $120 million.)

Kirk Cousins would get additional security in the form of $56 million in cash this year (his $16 million salary and the $40 million signing bonus) that he could do with as he pleased. Now, if you're Cousins or his financial advisers waiting until after that reported ten percent reduction in the federal incme tax would increase that by another $5.6 million, so he might be more inclined to play under the tag one more year, take the $24 million this year and hope the lower rate is in place by next winter when he could then sign the long term deal.

Those potentially loomng tax cuts and when they'll take effect likely will play a role in the long term contract negotiations this winter. You may see less upfront money and more money pushed back a year or two in deals to give those tax cuts a chance to be put in place.

[teganslaw]

Darrelle Revis has four felony charges pending against him: two aggravated assault; robbery; and conspiracy-aggravated assault. Also a misdemeanor charge of terrorism.

The altercation happened in Pittsburgh, where allegedly, some men were following Revis for several blocks, trying to take a photo. The men were punched and blacked out for about 10 minutes; the photo determined that Revis was the one who punched them. Revis's attorney said that Revis did grab someone's phone, but didn't know if he tried to delete the photo. He also said that Revis wasn't the one who started this, that he was trying to get away. The police probably think differently. Revis has turned himself in.

I don't know how a charge of terrorism could be brought into this, but it seems that all the details aren't yet in. No matter, I won't be surprised if the Jets release him after this. Revis was in danger anyway because of salary cap issues. Have to see how this all works out. But his career might be in trouble.

[gardenman]

Darrelle Revis is learning a very expensive lesson. Nothing good ever happens at two AM. Players seldom get in trouble in the midmorning or afternoons. Whenever there's trouble it's usually after midnight. There are some odd things in the report that raises your antennae a bit, but if you're going to be out at that hour of the night, you're likely to find trouble, or it will find you.

[gardenman]

Here we are now several days into the tagging period and no tags have been applied as of yet. Even the assumed roster moves have largely gone quiet. The Dolphins made some noise by releasing Mario Williams, and reportedly planning to cut Branden Albert, but then the Jags called them and offered to trade for Albert, so that cut got put on hold. The Jags apparently feel they'd have a hard time competing for his services if he became a free agent and they can handle his current contract, so they'd rather make a late round trade for him than compete for him. That's kind of a smart move for both the Dolphins and the Jags. They both get something and give up little.

If the Jags waited for Albert to become a free agent his asking price could get pretty high if other teams got in the bidding. They could end up having to pay him more, over a longer term, than they would by trading for him.

Adrian Peterson is broadly hinting to the Giants that he'd like to play for them, so if the Vikings do cut him loose, expect to see/hear some noise from that direction. Given the number of good young backs in the draft though, I'm not so sure the Giants would make that move, unless they want to give Eli one last shot at glory. You're hearing lots of whispers out of the Giants camp that Eli is holding back the Giants these days with his play and they've got to look more to the future, so expect them to draft a young QB, or sign a free agent to compete with Eli. Apparently the Giants coaching staff felt Eli missed a lot of open receivers and misread quite a few plays and they're looking to upgrade the QB position in the very near future. Those whispers may be to just light a fire under Eli, or they could be really giving up on him.

I don't think Mario Williams will be out of football for long. some team will give him a one year "prove it" type contract to let him create havoc for one season and see how he performs.  Edge pass rushers are in big demand and he's been a very good one in the past. Some team, likely multiple teams, will give him another shot to see what he can do. The contract will likely be based on the league minimum with escalators based on performance, but he'll likely be on a roster come training camp.

This is another one of those offseasons where you could assemble a pretty good team from just the free agent pool. The quarterback pickings will be a bit slim but guys like Nick Foles and Jay Cutler can be competent starters. Romo could lead a team deep into the playoffs if he could stay healthy. There are enough older offensive linemen being jettisoned that you could assemble a competent offensive line. There are lots of good wide receivers expected to hit the market. Adrian Peterson will likely lead the crop of running backs. Toss in a tight end and you've got an offense. It would be an old offense on the downhill side, but they could be pretty darn competitive for a year or two. 

There are enough defensive players floating around in free agency (Mario Williams, Jason Pierre Paul, and more) that you could assemble a pretty competent defense just from free agents. Kickers and punters are always around. The team wouldn't be competitve for long as many of the players are on the downhill side of their careers, but you could assemble a pretty good team. Getting them to all play together as a unit might be more of a challenge, but the talent's out there to assemble a unit that, at least on paper, looks very good.

Expect activity to pick up over the next week or so as that deadline for using the tag draws closer.

[gardenman]

Carson Wentz is taking his role as talent scout seriously. He's been seen working out with Cooper Kupp and Chad Hansen, two college wide receivers who could be early round picks. Carson seems to be enjoying traveling the country and meeting the kids. I strongly suspect the league will implement new rules at some point to limit this type of player scouting and evaluating, but until they do, Carson's testing out the kids.

[gardenman]

The Niners are taking an interesting 'divide and conquer' approach to roster building. Kyle Shanahan, the new head coach, is focusing on the players on the roster and NFL free agents while John Lynch, the new GM is focusing exclusively on the draft and the kids coming out of college. 

I'm not sure how they'll merge that to fill out their ninety man roster, but it'll be interesting to see. I suspect this will be just a one year experiment due to the short amount of time they had to prepare, as someone pretty much has to know everything about every roster option in order to make a real decision on what to do.

The GM doesn't "know" his players under this model while the head coach doesn't "know" the kids coming out of college. Maybe the GM thinks a kid coming out of college is just adequate, but he's better than the guys already on the roster? If he doesn't know the kid is better than what they have they may just pass up on the kid for someone else and leave the roster weaker than it needs to be. 

It's a pretty quirky approach to building a roster.

[teganslaw]

Off topic: SPURT, I saw that San Antonio possibly had a tornado, with over 100 homes damaged. They say that winds were 70 miles an hour, and storms could be headed to Houston. Hope everything is Ok with you; check in whenever you have a chance.

Back to football: Irsay tweeted that "things are clicking on all cylinders" in Indy. Can't wait to see how all this works out with Pagano and Ballard. Pagano might still be on the hot seat; only time will tell. At least there is a start with Grigson being out.

Wonder what will happen with Le'Veon Bell. He will be a free agent, but I just can't picture him with another team. He'll demand some big money.

Now there is a report that Cousins doesn't want to stay in Washington. I dont know what to believe, but that is an interesting situation.

[gardenman]

The big key for Indy is how the players respond to the coaching staff. The owner made it pretty clear he's not married to Pagano. The players may play hard for him, or they could roll over and play dead. We'll have to see what happens.

Leveon Bell will likely get tagged and stay in Pittsburgh.

Kirk Cousins' market value is arguably the highest it's ever been with multiple teams needing a quarterback and several new coaches who really love him. The Redskins seem to be locked into a $16 million salary for him and he's looking more for $25 million, so there's a bit of a gap there. I suspect Kirk would love to be free like Josh Norman was last year. He could then pick a team and get his contract. I don't think the Redskins will just let him go though. It's a fun situation to watch. Timing is kind of important. Kirk would need to free halfway early to get a good deal. With McCarron and Garoppollo both tradeable, guys like Nick Foles available, and the kids in the draft, those QB vacancies could disappear quickly. If the Redskins wait to untagged him, Kirk could find no vacancies available.

[gardenman]

The Dolphins and Jaguars are doing some sort of an odd dance. The Dolphins started out planning to cut Branden Albert to free up some cap room and move Laremy Tunsil to left offensive tackle. The Jags hear of this and offer to trade for Albert. They offer up Julius Thomas their tight end that played under Adam Gase (the Miami head coach) in Denver. The Dolphins then send Branden Albert to Jacksonville to meet with the Jags, but decide in the meantime that they want Julius Thomas no matter what so they offer a late round pick in this year's draft to get him and the Jags reportedly agree. (None of this becomes official until after March 9th.)

Now the Jags still want Albert and they've now apparently decided to trade for him with another late round pick. So we've got two players moving, two late round picks moving and everyone seems generally happy, all of it generated by a leak that Branden Albert was about to be cut.

It's kind of neat how once two teams start talking they find new ways to get things done. The Dolphins came out pretty well in this series of moves however. They not only got rid of Branden Albert, but they picked up a good tight end in the process. The Jags lose a tight end who didn't perform up to the level they'd hoped for, but gain a left offensive tackle without having to get into a bidding war for him. Both teams swap late round draft picks that are of minimal value anyway.

Rumor has it that the Eagles have a number of potential trades lined up with Connor Barwin moving to a 3-4 defense somewhere, Mychal Kendricks heading off to a linebacker needy team, Jason Kelce possibly being moved also and assorted other players also available if the price is right. That early to mid-March period looks to be pretty busy this year.

The Eagles had one of the older teams in the league last year and they're looking to change that this year. They're looking to add young blood to the mix and freshen up the team a bit. They've got eight draft picks now and will likely look to add a few more in trades.

They could package one or more of those players to move up in the first round of the draft also if there's a player they like. Last year by packaging Demarco Murray, Kiko Alonzo, and Byron Maxwell, the Eagles were able to move up in the first round to get closer to the top to get Carson Wentz. The final move took a ton of draft picks, but it would have been even more expensive had they not moved up closer in those trades.

Of the teams drafting ahead of the Eagles, Buffalo (tenth) and Tennessee (5th) are teams the Eagles have a recent trading history with. I don't see the Eagles moving up to fifth easily, but the move to tenth from fourteenth or fifteenth is pretty possible by bundling a Kendricks or Barwin (maybe both?) to the Bills. The Bills would get one or two pro bowl level players who don't fit the Eagles current system and would likely be cut, to move down four or five spots and the Eagles move up four or five spots putting a guy they love within reach.

I suspect the next month to be pretty busy around the old NFL.

[gardenman]

The Houston PD has now set the value of Tom Brady's stolen/lost/missing jersey at $500,000. I'm thinking that might be the teensiest bit high. 

The Bears are apparently calling every team in the league to try and find a team dumb enough to trade for Jay Cutler. Good luck with that. His performance, salary and injury history will likely limit their options to simply cutting him loose and moving on. Cutler is one of those quarterbacks who drives coaches and GM's absolutely insane. He's slightly above average and can play well above average on occasion, but you just can't win consistently with him as your QB.

GM's around the league either want a really good, top ten quarterback, or a really bad bottom five quarterback. If you've got a top ten guy, you're pretty much set and don't have to worry about it. If you've got a bottom five guy you know you've got to replace him. Those guys from eleven to twenty-seven though drive GM's and coaches nuts and Cutler's one of those guys. They aren't bad quarterbacks, but they also aren't good quarterbacks. They're generally good enough to keep you in the middle of the pack which means you're never high enough up in the draft to get a top tier replacement for them, but they're not good enough to make you a consistent winner. If you trade them or cut them they could spring to life with another team and lead them to the playoffs making you look like an idiot. If you keep them you're likely mired in mediocrity until they retire. 

If you polled every GM in the league they'd likely tell you they'd love to have a top ten quarterback. If they can't have that they'd prefer a bottom five quarterback that they'd know they had to replace. Those guys in the middle give coaches and GM's ulcers and turn their hair grey. They're kind of a nightmare with no good exit strategy. Turn him loose and he might blossom into a star. Keep him and he might stay mediocre forever. Those guys are nothing but trouble.